Mets360 2017 projection review: Yoenis Cespedes

Next up in our preseason projection review series is Yoenis Cespedes, slugger extraordinaire. Cespedes predictably opted out of the short-term deal he signed with the Mets at the end of the 2016 season, once again becoming a free agent. The Mets, amazingly, ponied up the cash to re-sign him to a four year pact shortly thereafter. Cespedes wasn’t quite as valuable in 2016 as he had been in 2015, though his wRC+ was 135 in both years. The drop in his overall fWAR (6.7 vs 3.2) mostly had to due with his poor defensive rating, particularly in center field, and time missed with leg issues.

The plan was to keep him out of center in 2017, which would theoretically limit the damage to his overall value as well as the stress on his legs. Even so, much of the Mets’ success would depend on the defensive output of an outfield that was looking pretty ugly on that side of the ball. Our Mets360 staff projections below attempted to peg his UZR/150 in what would presumably be mostly left field in 2017:

PA – 611
AVG – .285
OBP – .343
SLG – .523
HR – 32
RBI – 102
UZR/150 – 2.7

The individual projections were generally very similar, leading to an overall offensive projection that matched pretty closely with his 2016 performance. Where the staff diverged significantly was in the projections for his UZR/150, with a range from -2.5 to 15.7. Here’s how he actually performed, with the best and worst individual projections among our group:

PA – 321
Best – Fox (520)
Worst – Walendin (680)

AVG – .292
Best – Allison (.287)
Worst – Fox (.275)

OBP – .352
Best – Barbierr (.353)
Worst – Koehler (.315)

SLG – .540
Best – Koehler (.540)
Worst – Fox, Netter (.510)

HR – 17
Best – Barbieri (29)
Worst – Netter (41)

RBI – 42
Best – Rogan (88)
Worst – Netter (118)

UZR/150 – -5.2
Best – Barbieri (-2.5)
Worst – Ryan (15.7)

Like so many players we’ve reviewed so far, our projections were thrown completely out of whack because of the time Cespedes missed due to injury. He played in just 81 of the team’s games after missing significant time with leg issues that the Mets, you guessed it, completely mismanaged.

When he was actually healthy enough to play he was having another very strong year at the plate, though. His power numbers were reminiscent of his 2015 while the improved walk rate he managed in 2016 carried over into 2017. Perhaps unsurprising considering the leg issues, his base running and defense were net negatives that dragged down his overall value. This was also the case in 2016, and it’s not such a leap to say that he may now have some deep-seated trepidation when it comes to pushing it with his legs.

I’m tired of writing it, you’re tired of reading it, but perhaps the steps the team has taken this offseason to restructure how they handle injuries will keep disasters like 2017 from happening again. For his part, Cespedes has stated that he’ll tweak his training routine to focus more on resistance and agility in the hope of preventing, or at the very least lessening the severity of, injuries to his lower body.

Mets360 2017 projection review: David Wright, Jose Reyes, Wilmer Flores

Next up in our preseason projection review series is a trio of infielders in David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Wilmer Flores. The Mets’ infield picture heading into the 2017 season was a bit muddied in terms of who played where and how often. They needed to find playing time for the trio, and the question marks surrounding the health of Wright and Lucas Duda added a wrinkle to whatever formula they devised to spread the wealth. As such, our Mets360 projections attempted to factor in playing time via plate appearances:

Player PA OPS
Wright 216 .765
Reyes 433 .711
Flores 378 .750

Perhaps a bit surprisingly, we foresaw Reyes getting the most playing time of the three even though we also projected him to be the least productive. We weren’t particularly bullish on Wright’s playing time, and even then we were still too optimistic. We’ll cover the actual production of Reyes and Flores below, but first a quick note on Wright. The poor guy can’t catch a break, as he had to shut down his rehab after only three Hi-A games with shoulder trouble that led to rotator cuff surgery in September. A month later he underwent additional surgery on his lower back. It was the first year of his career that he didn’t suit up for a single major league game and it certainly doesn’t portend a positive outlook on his future in the big leagues.

Here’s how Reyes and Flores actually did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group:

Reyes
PA – 561
Best – Ryan (574)
Worst – Koehler (350)

OPS – .728
Best – Rogan (.730)
Worst – Hangley (.820)

Flores
PA – 362
Best – Barbieri (335)
Worst – Hangley (213)

OPS – .795
Best – Fox (.795)
Worst – Allison (.673)

As a group we were on point with Reyes getting the most playing time. We undershot the playing time for both Reyes and Flores because of the time we allocated to Wright, though, and Reyes inherited the bulk of those at-bats. Interestingly, we underestimated the production for both Flores and Reyes by a good bit.

The Mets are once again entering a season with question marks surrounding the infield. Unlike 2017, however, the lack of viable starting options lies at the heart of the uncertainty. Duda is gone, Reyes is unquestionably no longer a starter, Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario are still very raw, Adrian Gonzalez…exists(?), and any fantasy that Wright will ever return to the diamond is all but squashed. Although the team re-signed Reyes as a utility player, it remains to be seen who starts at second and third, and time is getting short as we inch closer and closer to Spring Training.

Mets360 2017 projection review: Steven Matz

The next player in our preseason projection review series is our last pitcher, Steven Matz. Matz was quite good in the parts of two seasons he did pitch heading into the 2017 campaign, including his efforts for the team as they rocketed to the World Series in 2015. The problem, of course, is that he’s had trouble staying on the field during his young career. Did his inability to stay healthy factor into our Mets360 staff projections for his 2017? See for yourself below:

IP – 158
ERA – 3.27
K – 150
BB – 41
HR – 14
FIP – 3.23
ISO – .087

Scant few of our writers foresaw anything resembling a full, healthy season for Matz in 2017. We did generally agree that his time on the field would be productive, however, and as a group we saw improvements (if slight) in most areas including the amount of time he spent actually on the mound. Here’s how he actually performed, with the best and worst individual projections among our group:

IP – 66.2
Best – Walendin (132)
Worst – Joura (186)

ERA – 6.08
Best – Allison (3.97)
Worst – Fox (3.00)

K – 48
Best – Hangley (112)
Worst – Joura (180)

BB – 19
Best – Hangley (27)
Worst – Netter (60)

HR – 12
Best – Hangley (12)
Worst – Joura (18)

FIP – 5.05
Best – Ryan (3.52)
Worst – Walendin (2.96)

ISO – .000
Best – Fox, Koehler (.070)
Worst – Allison (.173)

To put it bluntly, Matz was a disaster and a key component of the Mets’ problems in 2017. Those problems, of course, being poor pitching performance mixed with an inability to stay on the field. He started the season two months late because of elbow issues, and the Mets characteristically whiffed on managing it while it swelled to the size of a grapefruit after many of his 13 starts. He was finally diagnosed with ulnar nerve irritation and had ulnar nerve transposition surgery in August.

The bright side is that it’s the same surgery from which Jacob deGrom has recovered nicely, and while it’s not minor it could have been much worse. The downside is that it’s yet another Mets pitcher undergoing yet another surgery. It will be interesting to see what Matz can do while not pitching through pain in 2018, but the chances that he ever pitches a full season are looking pretty slim.

Mets360 2017 projection review: Curtis Granderson

Curtis Granderson is next up in our preseason projection review series. Granderson was the last of the veterans shipped out last summer when he was traded to the Dodgers for relief prospect Jacob Rhame in August. The big unknown heading into the 2017 season, besides the potential for a drop off in production, was how much time he’d spend in center field after the Mets failed to trade Jay Bruce in the offseason. Our Mets360 projections for him, including projected games in center, are below:

PA – 567
AVG – .241
OBP – .341
SLG – .445
HR – 25
RBI – 70
CF – 83

As a whole, we predicted a bit of a decline in performance but nothing too drastic. Surprisingly, we saw him playing center field in roughly half of the team’s games over the course of the season. Here’s how he actually did across both the Mets and the Dodgers, with the best and worst individual projections among our group:

PA – 527
Best – O’Malley (508)
Worst – Ryan (655)

AVG – .212
Best – Rogan (.225)
Worst – O’Malley (.252)

OBP – .323
Best – Rogan (.320)
Worst – Hangley (.373)

SLG – .452
Best – Netter (.450)
Worst – Hangley (.517)

HR – 26
Best – Joura, Ryan (26)
Worst – Hangley (31)

RBI – 64
Best – Fox (63)
Worst – Hangley (97)

CF – 65
Best – Netter, Barbieri (65)
Worst – Hangley (145)

At the time of his departure he was having a pretty good year for the Mets. At the very least, he was on track to outperform his 2016. He had a rough go of it after the trade, though, seeing his wRC+ of 115 with the Mets plummet to 78 with the Dodgers. It was no surprise then that the Dodgers left him off of their World Series roster, particularly after his struggles continued into the postseason.

Despite his streakiness, and Terry Collins insistence that he was a leadoff hitter, Granderson had a relatively successful run in Flushing. His work off the field was particularly outstanding, and his presence in the clubhouse is likely to be missed moving forward.

Mets360 2017 projection review: Matt Harvey

Matt Harvey is next up in our preseason projection review series, and to say he put forth a disappointing performance would be…well it would be a gross misrepresentation of the dumpster fire that was his 2017 season. His 2016 season was cut short after just 17 mediocre games and the revelation that he needed surgery to correct his thoracic outlet syndrome. There was some tepid hope for a bounce back season with the thought that his issues stemmed from his condition, and the variations across our Mets360 projections reflected just how much of a wildcard he would be in 2017. Our hopeful, collective projections for Harvey were:

IP – 172.3
ERA – 3.14
K – 173
BB – 39
HR – 15
FIP – 3.00
Contact % – 76.1

Taken as a whole, our projections foresaw a marked improvement for Harvey when compared to his 2016 performance, but obviously nothing like the pitcher he’d been in 2015. How close were we? Well, you already know the answer to that one. Here’s how he did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group:

IP – 92.2
Best – Walendin (138)
Worst – Netter (215)

ERA – 6.70
Best – Allison (3.65)
Worst – Netter (2.38)

K – 67
Best – Walendin (117)
Worst – Netter (228)

BB – 47
Best – Hangley (47)
Worst – Walendin (31)

HR – 21
Best – Hangley (17)
Worst – Netter (9)

FIP – 6.37
Best – Allison (4.05)
Worst – Netter (2.31)

Contact % – 83.7
Best – Walendin (81%)
Worst – Allison (52.7%)

Shield your eyes, as even our most pessimistic projections didn’t come close to reality. It was his worst season in almost every conceivable way. His strikeout rate was down, his walk rate almost doubled, his home run rate almost tripled, and his value over the season was in the negatives for the first time in his career. He was also suspended for three games for violating team rules. To top it off, he hit the disabled list with a fractured scapula that required surgery and a disabled list stint of over two months.

The silver lining, if you could call it that, with the injury was that it may have been the reason for such a poor performance (albeit not the poor attitude) early in the season. Unfortunately, Harvey was even worse upon his return in September, which did little to ease fears that he was broken forever. Nevertheless, the Mets (rightfully) tendered Harvey a contract for 2018 and his final year of arbitration. Hey, if he’s going to have a comeback it might as well be with the Mets. Right?

Mets360 2017 projection review: Jay Bruce

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The next player in our preseason projection review series spent just over a calendar year and played just shy of a full season’s worth of games with the Mets before being offloaded in the 2017 payroll purge. It’s no secret that Jay Bruce didn’t win the hearts and minds of Mets fans with his performance after the team picked him up at the trade deadline in 2016. He slashed a disappointing .219/.294/.391 with a wRC+ of 82 in 50 games for the Mets to close out the 2016 season. This led many to doubt his ability to play in New York and thus his value to the team heading into 2017.

It seemed like the Mets had been trying to trade the poor guy since they acquired him, and we at Mets360 included our predictions on whether or not we believed he would be sent packing in our projections for him below:

PA – 523
AVG – .245
OBP – .323
SLG – .480
HR – 27
RBI – 84
Traded – No

The Indians claimed Bruce off of waivers just after the 2017 trade deadline, and the Mets got a new member of the relief prospect band they were forming in return. Here’s how he actually did across both teams, with the best and worst individual projections among our group:

PA – 617
Best – Barbieri (631)
Worst – Walendin (445)

AVG – .254
Best – Barbieri (.255)
Worst – Walendin (.228)

OBP – .324
Best – O’Malley (.323)
Worst – Walendin (.288)

SLG – .508
Best – Hangley (.512), Barbieri (.504)
Worst – Rogan (.435)

HR – 36
Best – Barbieri (38)
Worst – Walendin (18)

RBI – 101
Best – Barbieri (103)
Worst – Walendin (56)

Traded – Yes
Best – Koehler, Walendin, Ryan, Netter, Hangley (Yes)
Worst – Rogan, Fox, Joura, O’Malley, Allison, Barbieri (No)

Well, you can’t say we didn’t try. It’s interesting how two of our writers ran away with this on opposite ends of the spectrum, but with the performance questions surrounding Bruce it’s not surprising that most of us really had no idea if he could rebound from his awful NY debut. He did just that and more, slashing .256/.321/.520 with 29 homers and a wRC+ of 120 in 103 games with the Mets before they shipped him out. You’d think a team could get more for a player with his history on such a tear, but of course the Mets were sellers in a market that had little need for the players they were peddling. Such is life.

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Mets360 2017 projection review: Lucas Duda

The next player in our preseason projection review series is the gentle giant, and chronically underappreciated, Lucas Duda. The second-longest tenured Met behind David Wright, Duda had surprisingly little goodwill with Mets fans despite being top four all-time for Mets first basemen in home runs, runs, RBIs, and wRC+. Duda was the first domino to fall as the Mets conceded 2017 by offloading expiring contracts, and he was traded to the Rays shortly before the deadline. While we at Mets360 didn’t necessarily think a trade was in the cards, we at least projected him to lose a bit of playing time against tough lefties after coming off of an injury-plagued 2016:

PA – 461
AVG – .251
OBP – .346
SLG – .490
HR – 25
RBI – 73
K% – 23%

Here’s how he actually did across both the Mets and Rays, with the best and worst individual projections among our group:

PA – 491
Best – O’Malley (475)
Worst – Koehler, Ryan (350)

AVG – .217
Best – Ryan (.228)
Worst – Barbieri (.267)

OBP – .322
Best – Ryan (.319), O’Malley (.325)
Worst – Walendin (.355)

SLG – .496
Best – Hangley, Barbieri (.497)
Worst – O’Malley (.442)

HR – 30
Best – Barbieri, Allison (29)
Worst – Fox (18)

RBI – 64
Best – Rogan, Koehler, Fox (65)
Worst – Barbieri (89)

K% – 27.5
Best – Koehler (26.0)
Worst – Joura (20.5)

Our group projection was a bit optimistic in some areas while pessimistic in others. Such is the enigma that is Lucas Duda. He turned down a three-year, roughly $30 million extension offer from the Mets before the 2015 season that looked like a terrible decision in 2016, but with the ludicrous contract Carlos Santana received from the Phillies (three years/$60 million) it looks like he should be able to get at least that from some team not named the Mets this offseason. I wish him the best of luck. Just, of course, not against the Mets.

Mets360 2017 projection review: Neil Walker

Next up in our preseason projection review series is former (and future?) Mets second baseman Neil Walker. Walker was yet another casualty of the injury epidemic that hit the team this year as he spent most of June and July sidelined with a hamstring injury. With the season down the tubes, the Mets cut their losses and Walker was included in the Great Veteran Expulsion of 2017, getting the Mets a Class A lottery ticket with a rocket for an arm from the Brewers. Our Mets360 projections are below:

PA – 535
AVG – .275
OBP – .339
SLG – .453
HR – 19
RBI – 71
FB% – 41.0

Here’s how he actually did across both the Mets and Brewers, with the best and worst individual projections among our group:

PA – 448
Best – Koehler (400)
Worst – Hangley (582)

AVG – .265
Best – Hangley (.267)
Worst – Allison (.282)

OBP – .362
Best – Allison (.350)
Worst – Hangley (.316)

SLG – .439
Best – Fox (.439)
Worst – Hangley (.512)

HR – 14
Best – Rogan (14)
Worst – O’Malley, Hangley, Allison (22)

RBI – 49
Best – Koehler (60)
Worst – Hangley (87)

FB% – 41.7
Best – Joura (42.0)
Worst – Ryan (53.8)

Our group projection wasn’t all that out of sync with the big systems and would have been a fine season for Walker to put up for the theoretically playoff-bound Mets. Unfortunately, most of us didn’t take into account how long he’d be out with injury and I’m not sure anyone toyed with the idea that he’d be traded. The Mets have already said they’d be open to a reunion now that they’re in the market for a second baseman this offseason. They could do worse, certainly, but there are potentially better options to be had on the trade market this winter.

Mets360 2017 projection review: Noah Syndergaard

The next entry in our preseason projection review series is a tragic tale in more ways than one. You see, Noah Syndergaard was primed to take over the New York rotation by continuing to establish himself as one of the most dominant hurlers in baseball. He was excited by this, as were fans. In fact, our Mets360 projections for him were incredibly positive:

IP – 182.2
ERA – 2.75
K – 225
BB – 51
HR – 14
FIP – 2.61
BABIP – .301

He sought to take things up a notch even further by adding 17 pounds of muscle to his already hulking frame to get more “oomph” on his fastball. This understandably gave pretty much everyone pause. After all, Syndergaard seemed like an injury risk even before adding the extra mass, and this all seemed like a terribly awful idea. To no one’s surprise, he hurt himself during his fifth start at the end of April.

Here’s what Syndergaard actually did in his limited time on the mound in 2017, with the best and worst individual projections among our group:

IP – 30.1
Best – Koehler (180)
Worst – Netter (225)

ERA – 2.97
Best – O’Malley (2.93)
Worst – Joura (2.35)

K – 34
Best – Koehler (200)
Worst – Netter (275)

BB – 3
Best – Koehler, Rogan (40)
Worst – Ryan (73)

HR – 0
Best – Walendin (9)
Worst – Fox (21)

FIP – 1.31
Best – Netter (2.04)
Worst – Hangley (3.39)

BABIP – .337
Best – O’Malley (.317)
Worst – Netter (.220)

Although we all suspected he was an injury risk, none of us expected he’d miss so much time and our projections reflect that fact. To his credit, Syndergaard has acknowledged the error of his ways and instead intends to focus on more baseball-specific training activity this winter. That’s good to hear, though it does little to sooth the effect of a devastating injury that was sadly only the start of the Mets’ 2017 woes. He came back to pitch two times before the season was out, mostly because the Mets are out of their minds, but things are looking up for 2018 and beyond (fingers crossed) with a renewed focus on proper training and a new pitching-centric coaching staff in place.

Mets360 2017 projection review: Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed

(Credit: USA Today Sports Images)

Despite Jeurys Familia’s impending suspension for domestic violence when the 2017 season started, the back end of the Mets’ bullpen looked to be a strength with Addison Reed holding the fort until his return. Familia was coming off his best season in 2016, earning his first All-Star nod en route to blowing away the Mets’ single season save record with 51.

Reed, no slouch himself, also turned in a career year in 2016 with a dominant performance of his own. It was a two-headed monster that, understandably, Mets fans were excited to see shut down the opposition as the 2017 Mets inevitably soared towards the post-season.

We sure were excited here at Mets360, as our projections below show:

IP ERA WHIP Saves
Familia 62.7 2.53 1.175 37
Reed 76.7 2.40 1.120 11

Well, things didn’t turn out as we had hoped. Here’s are they actually did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group and starting with Familia:

IP – 24.2
Best – Rogan (53)
Worst – Ryan (73.3)

ERA – 4.38
Best – O’Malley (2.86)
Worst – Netter (2.20)

WHIP – 1.46
Best – Hangley (1.27)
Worst – Ryan (0.97)

Saves – 6
Best – Barbieri (31)
Worst – Netter (45)

Familia wasn’t quite himself when he returned, but before he could get back on track he went down with an arterial blood clot in his right shoulder. He didn’t return until the end of August, and by then the season was down the tubes, Reed was gone, and Marlins closer AJ Ramos was now Mets closer AJ Ramos. It was a weird year.

Next up, interim-that-turned-out-kind-of-long-term-closer Reed:

IP – 76
Best – Rogan (76)
Worst – Barbieri (46)

ERA – 2.84
Best – O’Malley (2.80)
Worst – Barbieri (3.59)

WHIP – 1.05
Best – Netter (1.05)
Worst – Barbieri (1.26)

Saves – 19
Best – Walendin (16)
Worst – Barbieri, Fox, Netter, Ryan (8)

While Reed’s 2017 wasn’t quite as strong as his 2016, it was certainly a fairly strong season. That Reed ended the season in a Red Sox uniform bespoke the season’s putrid turn, but hey the Mets got relief prospects for him or something.

The killer Reed-Familia duo of 2015 and (especially) 2016 never re-emerged, but at the end of the day that turned out to be the least of the Mets’ problems this past season. With Ramos on the roster and a hopefully healthy Familia ready to reclaim his glory, it’ll be interesting to see what direction Mickey Callaway takes with the back end of the bullpen. It’s just one of many challenges facing him as he starts his Mets managerial career, though it’d be shocking to see anyone but Familia closing games in 2018.

Mets360 2017 projection review: Asdrubal Cabrera

Will they or won’t they? That’s the question on Mets fans minds with regard to the next player in our projection review series, Asdrubal Cabrera. The SS/2B/3B has a team option for 2018 worth $8.5 million that, realistically, the team is likely to exercise. Whether that is a okay thing or an not so okay thing depends on his role, as his future offensive outlook up the middle is more appealing than at the hot corner (though his defense is certainly not). Below was our official projection:

PA – 526
AVG – .270
OBP – .329
SLG – .437
HR – 17
RBI – 64
HR/FB% – 9.8

Here’s how Cabrera actually did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group:

PA – 540
Best – Rogan (540)
Worst – Joura (444)

AVG – .280
Best – Netter, Hangley (.281)
Worst – Allison (.265)

OBP – .351
Best – Barbieri (.340)
Worst – Koehler (.320)

SLG – .434
Best – O’Malley (.437)
Worst – Allison (.472)

HR – 14
Best – Hangley (14)
Worst – Koehler (21)

RBI – 59
Best – Koehler (60)
Worst – Ryan (83)

HR/FB% – 9.7
Best – Ryan (9.8)
Worst – Koehler (13.5)

As a group, we were very close to his actual performance, indicating he had a very Cabrera-like year (complete with a late-season surge). In fact, offensively his 2017 was similar to his 2016 mostly across the board (111 and 119 wRC+, respectively). His performance was almost two full wins (fWAR) less this season than last, however. Some of that has to do with a noticeable drop in power. Most of it is because, while he played shortstop exclusively in 2016, he played more than half of his games at second base and third base in 2017.

This is worth keeping in mind when it comes to the team option on his contract for 2018. With Amed Rosario taking over at shortstop, Cabrera will never match the 3.0 fWAR he provided in 2016 at third or second. Is that worth $8.5 million? At 1.0-1.5ish fWAR, sure, technically. It would be nice if the Mets could upgrade at both second base and third base, but the options are limited.

Mets360 2017 projection review: Robert Gsellman

Next up in our preseason projection review series is Robert Gsellman. I don’t think many folks expected such a terrible season for the young righty who dazzled in his 2016 audition. In fact, our reader poll back in February overwhelmingly chose him as the preferred fifth starter heading into the season. To say things didn’t go as planned is an understatement, but below was our official projection:

IP – 137
ERA – 3.50
K – 120
BB – 41
HR – 11
FIP – 3.39
LOB% – 74.5

Here’s how Gsellman actually did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group:

IP – 119.2
Best – Netter (120)
Worst – Joura (178)

ERA – 5.19
Best – Barbieri (4.11)
Worst – Hangley (2.96)

Ks – 82
Best – Koehler (78)
Worst – Fox (160)

BB – 42
Best – Koehler (39), O’Malley (45)
Worst – Hangley (22)

HR – 17
Best – Walendin (16)
Worst – O’Malley (5)

FIP – 4.89
Best – Koehler (4.24)
Worst – O’Malley (2.79)

LOB% – 62.7
Best – Barbieri (72.4)
Worst – Ryan (80.5)

Hey, we almost pegged the walks! Unfortunately for the Mets and Gsellman (and fans), the most pessimistic of our individual projections were generally the most accurate. He had a tough time straight out the gate this season, with only a few performances of note. It should be pointed out that, beyond his poor performance, many of our projections took a hit simply because of the time he spent not pitching. Specifically, his innings were reduced due to injury, getting yanked from the rotation, and ultimately getting optioned to AAA.

Top the poor results off with a brief but public spat with the General Manager, and you have yourself a year to forget. It’s tough to say what Gsellman’s role will be on the 2018 team, but with the dumpster fire that was the 2017 pitching staff he has as good a shot as any to end up either in the rotation or the bullpen.