Last year on Opening Day, I made 15 predictions for the club and seven of them ended up coming true. That may not sound like much, but it was a marked improvement over 2010 when I ended up getting only three out of 15 correct. As a prognosticator, I make a pretty good analyst.
I could easily improve my results by making easier predictions. But where’s the fun in that? So I will not take the easy way out. Yet, much like the 2012 Mets, I’m going to sneak up on everyone with my predictions this year. So, here are 15 things that I expect will happen this season.
1. David Wright’s SLG is at least 100 points higher than last year’s .427 mark.
2. Dillon Gee does not finish the season in the rotation.
3. Ruben Tejada finishes with more HR this year than Jose Reyes.
4. The Mets make a trade to add payroll during the season.
5. Daniel Murphy plays in at least 140 games.
6. In his sixth season in the majors, Manny Acosta finally does not spend any time in the minors.
7. No one on the team suffers a season-ending injury before September.
8. Johan Santana has a half dozen starts where he gives up 5 or more ER.
9. Josh Thole throws out 10% more runners than last year’s 21% rate.
10. A pitcher that the Mets drafted makes the All-Star team.*
11. Mike Pelfrey has an ERA under 4.00 for the season.
12. Jason Bay does not reach 500 PA.
13. R.A. Dickey finishes 5 or more wins above .500 after going 8-13 last year.
14. Tim Byrdak allows 7 or more HR, his total from 2010 (4) and 2011 (3) combined.
15. The Mets finish ahead of at least two other teams in the NL East
* – Hat tip to my friend Mike Salfino, who pointed out: “Last All-Star pitcher drafted by the Mets and representing the Mets — Bobby Jones (1991) in 1997.”