The combination of the homegrown Mets – Davis, Duda, Gee, Niese, Nieuwenhuis, Parnell, Tejada, Thole, Wright – contributing to the first-place 2012 Mets, along with the emphasis on the draft of management, means that more attention is being played on this year’s Draft than any in team history, eclipsing even the 1994 Draft, when the Mets had eight of the top 100 picks in the draft.

In hindsight, the 1994 Draft did not turn out too well, as injuries knocked out some promising arms.  We can only hope the 2012 Draft turns out better.  But, unlike in 1994 when the Mets held the first pick and it was a foregone conclusion they would take Paul Wilson, we have no idea who they will take with their first pick, the 12th overall selection in the first round.

Times like this it’s good to turn to the experts, but even those who live and breathe the draft can’t come to any consensus.  Shoot, the top six forecasters each have a different guy they see the Mets pulling the trigger on when their pick arrives.  Of course, some of that is disagreement on who will be taken ahead of the Mets, still it goes to show how no one has any idea who the Mets are eyeing.

Here are the six forecasters and who they project the Mets to take.  This is being written shortly after 8:00 AM Eastern time and it’s certainly possible that the draftniks will put out another mock before the actual draft and change their minds on who the Mets grab.

Mack Ade (Mack’s Mets) – An “official pick” should always be who a person thinks the Mets will do, not what they hope the Mets will pick. Much of the guesswork gets thrown out the door when Zunino, Buxton, Appel, Zimmer, Almora, Correa, and Gausman go early. That leaves four picks before the Mets pick. I think there will be a run on shortstops that will take Cecchini and Merrero off the board before #12. I also think there will be an early run on “bats” because there aren’t that many decent ones in this draft. Hawkins and Dalh will probably be picked right before the Mets pick:  Clemson 3B/1B/OF Richie Shaffer.

Jim Callis (Baseball America) – New York appears to be deciding between the high school position players and college pitchers. In this scenario, it would come down to Dahl or Cecchini vs. Wacha.
Projected Pick: David Dahl.

Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus) – The Mets want to show that last year’s Brandon Nimmo pick was not an anomaly, and they are truly focused on upside over cost certainty. That’s created some Lucas Giolito whispers here, but even as high as 12, Giolito could still be an impossible sign. McCullers has as much velocity as any healthy high school arm in the draft, and is considered signable.  Projected Pick: Lance McCullers

Keith Law (ESPN) – They’re also on to Cecchini, Dahl, North Carolina prep third baseman Corey Seager and Texas A&M righty Michael Wacha. Giolito is a dark horse here. This is probably Zunino’s floor, and it’s definitely Fried’s floor.  Projected Pick: Max Fried.

Jonathan Mayo (MLB.com) – If Marrero doesn’t go to the Pirates, he could land here, as could one of those college arms, but for now, the Mets likely will go with a high school hitter for the second successive year. If Cecchini doesn’t go here, he could drop a bit.  Projected Pick: Gavin Cecchini.

John Sickels (Minor League Ball) – He won’t need long in the minors, and would fit nicely on a future pitching staff with Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, and Jeurys Familia.  Projected Pick: Michael Wacha.

*****

The first five prognosticators had the Mets taking a high school player.  Only Sickels, forecasting Wacha out of Texas A&M, had the Mets taking a collegiate player in the first round.  This makes sense, as the Mets made such a big deal out of drafting upside when they took Nimmo last year.

My take is that the Mets would prefer to take a hitter with their first-round pick.  If by some miracle, University of Florida catcher Mike Zunino falls to them, I think that’s who the Mets take.  That seems unlikely.  When it’s time for the Mets to pick, they see the value is in pitching.  They will have their choice between injured prepster Lucas Giolito (thought to be the #1 pick before coming down with an injured elbow) and Wacha.

If the Mets take Giolito, it will most likely mean going above the slot recommendation.  This will require them to go cheap elsewhere or pay the penalty.  It seems unlikely they will pay extra to go above slot.  So expect the Mets to take Wacha, assuming Fried is gone.

6 comments on “Who will the Mets take in the 2012 Draft?

  • Chris F

    Well it’s Gavin Cecchini, a middle infielder with not a lot of power, but plus speed. Maybe I’m missing something, and that could easily be true, but it’s a surprise pick for me when pitching is such a perpetual need. Interesting. Good call by Jonathan Mayo!

  • Brian Joura

    Well they had their pick between Giolito and Wacha and took the SS with questionable bat speed. It’s pretty cool that he was at Citi Field the night that Santana pitched the no-hitter. Hopefully he turns into an All-Star.

  • David Groveman

    Gavin Cecchini: Projects as a leadoff hitting SS/2B. With the scarcity in the system of true speedsters Gavin could fly up the charts quickly. The key will be getting on base.

    Kevin Plawecki: Righty/Hitting Catcher with Poor Arm. He doesn’t have Piazza’s power but being referred to as a RH A.J. Pierzynski isn’t so bad either.

    Matt Reynolds: Made little sense to me unless the Mets see him shifting to SS or 2B. We have depth at 3B and Reynolds abilities don’t seem to cut it there.

    Teddy Stakiewicz: Solid “Safe” pick. He has 4 pitches, he throws reasonably hard, nothing to write home about but nothing bad.

    Matt Koch: My favorite pick so far. He could rocket up the minors in short order. Hopefully the Mets note this and get this reliever signed ASAP.

    The next 3-5 rounds usually produce well for the Mets. I’ll keep watching.

  • David Groveman

    Brandon Kaupe: Strange pick. He’s 5’7″ and a bit stocky for SS. (He looks like a great athlete but short stops are usually skinny and wiry) His swing looks solid but being his size I can’t imagine his bat being the source of his value.

    Brandon Welch: STEAL! Welch might project as a reliever but he’ll get a chance to start. He’s only 6’1″ but he throws a mid-90’s FB and a strong slider. He could be a backend starter or a higher leverage reliever.

    David Jayce Boyd: Goes by Jayce. He’s a 1B and the video I found showed a solid swing that should play in Citi Field. His states show good contact and his size generates power but a line drive swing makes that power more inclined to doubles.

  • David Groveman

    Corey Oswalt: The video on Oswalt seems to really only show a fastball that tops out in the video at 90MPH. He could probably add to it, but that remains to be seen. On the flip side he was also a standout infielder (Short Stop… at 6’4″) where in the Arizona Fall Classic he hit .541 with four homers and 25 RBI.

    Tomas Nido: Praised for his defensive ability he also is noted for having power. The power comes with a long slower swing and will need work. In his video he hits a very Thole-like single up the middle. He will probably join Kevin Plawecki in rookie ball and split time.

  • Brian Joura

    Thanks David – good stuff!

    If Kaupe can’t cut it at SS maybe he can handle things at 2B.

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