Matt Harvey – Matt Harvey is hard to continue to list as a prospect because he’s already in the majors and succeeding. Harvey is the future #1/#2 pitcher for the Mets and that is as much as any Met fan could hope for in any draft picked pitcher ever selected. He’s already in the majors and has a better chance of switching to short stop than starting 2013 in the minors.
Jordany Valdespin – I see Valdespin returning in 2013 to the minors but not for very long. The Mets are going to continue to pursue making him into a super-sub utility man who can back-up at SS, 2B, and the OF while having power, speed and a lefty bat. The most likely use of him is as the everyday LF for the AAA ball club in 2013 with a call-up no later than July.
Zack Wheeler – Wheeler could have likely done okay if he were given a call-up this September but the Mets were wise to keep him out of Queens and slow his timetable a little. Wheeler is going to have a snowball’s chance of making the rotation out of Spring Training. Fact is, if the future #1/#2 pitcher blows people away in Spring Training it’s going to be hard to not keep him in the rotation. More likely he goes to AAA and becomes a call-up once he avoids Super 2 status deadlines.
Jeurys Familia – Jeurys Familia’s future seems like it’s in relief but I don’t know how much I buy it. My guess is that this Spring, he’s used in relief given 1-2 innings an outing while he stays with the MLB club. If he needs to go to AAA they will stretch him back out into a starter but I am starting to wonder if Familia is Bobby Parnell 2.0. If Familia does wind up in AAA to start 2013 he’s going to spend most of the year there.
Matt Den Dekker – Den Dekker has a chance of making the team this Spring. It’s more likely that the starting outfield for the start of the 2013 season resembles the outfield we have right now: Bay/Baxter, Nieuwenhuis and Duda. We could mix in Valdespin or imagine a free agent entering the mix but it looks like that would be it. Den Dekker needs the time in AAA to learn how to not swing at everything. If he can get his K/G under 1.00, he’s ready for the majors. If he can do that, he’s the future starting CF for the Mets. If he can’t… he’s the future 4th OF.
Collin McHugh – What do the Mets do with Collin McHugh in 2013? Do they ship him back to AAA with Gee re-joining the rotation of: Dickey, Santana, Harvey and Niese? Probably. McHugh is destined to be the #6 pitcher for the Mets in 2013 but if he makes the most of his inevitable first promotion, there is a chance that he could push his way into staying in the Met rotation. In terms of raw talent, he has the edge on Gee.
Jenrry Mejia – I think we’ve seen the last of the Jenrry Mejia relief experiment. I can’t say that for sure, but I think the catastrophic failure of converting him into relief and back in 2012 will protect him from seeing the same treatment in 2013. Mejia should not have a great chance of breaking into the 2013 rotation out of Spring Training but he should have a reasonable chance of coming up to replace an injury or struggling starter. Mejia is no longer on my radar as a #2/#3 pitcher but he could still slot in as an above average #4.
Kirk Nieuwenhuis – Nieuwenhuis was a revelation in 2012 but when he came back to earth the Mets made the right call to demote him to AAA. Unfortunately, before he could right the ship, he got hurt. The good news is that 2013 is another year and Nieuwenhuis will have a very good shot of starting the year as at least a platoon in the Met outfield.
Wilmer Flores – Flores MIGHT stick as a 2B or he might need to play 3rd. Most of this depends upon David Wright and if the Met star re-signs with the club during the offseason. If Wright does not look to have a long and prosperous future in Queens, Flores becomes Wright’s heir. If Wright returns for the long haul then Flores needs to either learn to play second or he becomes trade bait.
Darin Gorski – Gorski has a leg up on Collin McHugh and Jenrry Mejia to reach the backend of the Met rotation. Being a lefty doesn’t do the whole job and Gorski lost some ground with a mediocre year, but he’s firmly ahead of Mark Cohoon and unlike Robert Carson, he still starts. Gorski will report to AA or AAA to start the year and needs to make significant progress to earn his way into the Met’s future plans.
Reese Havens – Havens has become and after-thought. This is because of a long and tenuous injury history and a lack-luster 2012. Havens will, in all likelihood, be sent to AAA where he will have a final shot of impressing the organization with his bat to the point where the Mets promote him. His path becomes a little more clear if the Mets deal Wright and Flores is no longer jockeying for playing time at second.
Wilfredo Tovar – Though he’s likely to start the year in AAA there is little chance that Tovar has to make the team out of spring training. That is, unless Ruben Tejada gets hurt. The Mets will likely sign another Ronny Cedeno type player and Tovar’s chances of earning the backup role he’s qualified for become impossible. Though, in 2014 I would argue that either the starting SS or backup IF job are his.
Expanded rosters and TC STILL plays Bay.But he’s a good manager,a fine manager,he’s not the problem.
The Mets don’t have a righty OF ready in the wings. We’ve been over this.
If Bay is on this team next year I am not watching a single game.
This is NOT a beat up Groveman response. It’s just general ranting.
I’ve reached the point of being unable to write or read another sentence involving a Mets minor leaguers that says the word “if” (don’t go back and read the post… there aren’t that many, if any, in David’s post).
A baseball team is built by three sources:
1. The MLB Draft
2. The International Draft
3. The Free Agent Market
The current team is strapped with bad free agent contracts, while, at the same time, low on moolah for more free agents. Fact of life folks.
Thus, all the current operation can do is try to improve their team through draft picks and international 16-year olds, none of which can help the team next year.
This team is littered with almost ballplayers that simply don’t have the ability to dominate at the major league level. Right now, Matt Harvey has joined RA Dickey and Jon Niese for the 2013 rotation (filled in with Johan Santana and Dillon Gee). Zack Wheeler will join them sometime after the all-star break and Michael Fulmer could be ready by 2014.. This alone is a great upgrade and, competitively speaking will rank them as one of the top rotations in baseball. Yes it will folks. Yes it will.
But bats? There are five: David Wright, Ike Davis, Wilmer Flores, Adrelin Rodriguez, and Brandon Nimmo. That’s it. There could have been five if Cory Vaughn would listen to someone around him. The rest are steak knives and you can wish all you want about these guys but they are never going to be on an all-star team (sans Ruben Tejada).
This is the team you have to root for. In normal times, a team would dip into free agency and improve on the team in 2013, but this team won’t.
Could it have been better? Well, drafting Giancarlo Stanton, Yazmani Grandal, and Courtney Hawkins other than who was picked with the first pick would have helped.
(I know… you draft Grandal, you lose Harvey… well, what if this team was operated correctly and you signed Jose Reyes to the same deal he has now with Flordia. Then you re-up Wright, move David to the OF, and move Tejada to 2B… here’s your opening day 2013 lineup:
SS Jose Reyes
2B Ruben Tejada
3B David Wright
1B Giancarlo Staton
C Yazmani Grandal
RF Ike Davis
LF Jason Bay
CF Kirk Nieuwenhuis
P: Johan Santana, RA Dickey, Jon Niese, Zack Wheeler, Dillon Gee)
sorry for mistakes… meds have kicked in… Nurse Ratchet is taking away the laptop…
Mets had bullpen on their mind the year Stanton was drafted (2007) Kunz, Vineyard HS LHP, Rustich, Moviel, Nissen, Clyne.
Couldn’t afford to go HS hitter either in time or in cash although Stanton only cost 475 K. Had to stretch that draft budget with two supplemental picks and an additional 2nd and 3rd rounder due to Roberto Hernandez and Chad Bradford leaving as type A’s.
Even signed Alou a week before SF had to decide whether to offer arbitration or not in order to ensure we would lose the best pick we had in the draft.
If we waited a week to sign Alou we could have had Stanton and Kunz. At least gotten something for our money. Would have had room on the 40 to protect Jesus Flores before the rule 5 draft as well. Doesn’t seem like we lost out now but back then he was coming off a 30 double, 20 HR season in A+ as a 21 who figured to stick at catcher and was in fact our top rated catching prospect at the time. Even with the newly signed 17 year old Francisco Pena destined for Savannah.
These are the types of decisions that keep bad teams bad.
I loathe drafting “relievers” with early picks. It seems to me that the best relief pitchers are always converted starters. The Mets drafted almost exclusively pitching for too long and the team has suffered. I don’t think the team began drafting well until Omar Minaya took the helm. (I’m still going to defend his drafting which wasn’t terrible by any stretch.) It SEEMS that Alderson has continued the trend of drafting well but a lot is riding on Nimmo, Fulmer, Cecchini and Plawecki.
If you expect to take the “perfect” draft pick – you’re going to end up disappointed 99 times out of 100 — maybe more. The Mets have been drafting since 1965 and how many “perfect” picks have they made? I’m talking how many times did they take the guy who was the best one available?
The Mets have had 61 first round or supplemental first round picks. How many times did they end up taking the best guy with that pick? Just looking at the other guys taken in the first round and recognizing there could be guys better taken in later rounds, I would say — Strawberry, Gooden and Wright. So 3 out of 61. On the first round, where they should have the best information available of any round, they hit a HR about 5% of the time. And how many of those 61 times did they have a top 3 pick? Nine times they had a top-3 pick, five times the top overall pick and all they could manage was five times.
Why limit this game to draft picks? Why don’t we focus on trades and free agent signings? What if the Mets had signed Matt Holliday instead of Jason Bay? What if they traded for CC Sabathia instead of Johan Santana? What if they had signed Jesus Montero instead of Francisco Pena?
I think people hear “MLB Draft” and automatically associate it with the NFL or NBA. It’s apples and oranges but fans don’t realize that. Even those drafts aren’t precise as there are undrafted guys like Wayne Chrebet, Victor Cruz, and Jeremy Lin. However, baseball is a different beast altogether because:
a) there’s years and years of development before reaching the top level.
b) more psychological because of the years of development and the sustained focus and commitment required during that stretch.
To reiterate your point, there is no perfect draft pick. If that were the case, the 1,390th pick in the 1988 draft and 402nd pick in the 1999 draft wouldn’t be future hall-of-famers since they would have been drafted much higher in those years (Mike Piazza and Albert Pujols, respectively).
No one can take the perfect draft pick; however, a team can target into a position or the kind of hitter they need in the system.
The Mets have been low on ‘pop’ for years, but made up for it with FA signings (Beltran, Delgado, Bay (sic)). It seemed to me that they targeted pitching with a “best one available” attitude, though I’m not sure what the plan is now. Best shortstop available?
What they didn’t do was go “bet pop” available, which has led the team to questionable pop past Wilmer Flores and Aderlin Rodrigues.
This could have been done better. It’s much easier to teach someone who can hit the ball over the fence NOT to swing, than it is to teacn singles hitters to go yard.
There are exceptions. Brahiam Maldonado remains the top home run hitter in the Mets system over the past ten years, but the Mets finally gave up on hima year ago when he couldn’t even consistenly hit .200 while leading his league in HRs. The ‘Brama Bull’ hit the first Mets affiliate home game homer in 2007 over the left field bleachers and it still may not have come down. Cory Vaughn has the ability to consistently be a top 5 home run hitter in any division you put him in, but he refuses to alter his swing to adjust the swing angle so he can successfully hit singles and doubles. Ego prevents this kid from being great. And Val Pascuchi proves every year that just hitting home runs in the minor leagues doesn’t get you to Cooperstown.
All I’m saying is I agree that hindsight doesn’t work here and, BTW, Stanton was never targets by the Mets. Still, the Mets could target someone who already has demonstrated the ability to hit home runs (Courtney Hawkins) than another singles hitter (Gavin Cecchini).
Great follow up!
Most of my “Ifs” revolve around David Wright’s future.
Would be nice to see this team have a real budget again.