Due to their ballpark and personnel, the Mets have never been a big HR hitting team. Only 28 times in team history has a player reached the 30-HR mark in a year. By contrast, the Rockies have had a 30-HR season 32 times in their history and they have played 31 fewer seasons.
Ike Davis has hit 26 HR this season, which is tied for 40th place in franchise history. Others to hit 26 HR in a season are Tommie Agee (1969), Darryl Strawberry (1983 & 1984), Mo Vaughn (2002) and David Wright (2006).
Before the season, I wagered a mythical Coke with friend of the site Dan Szymborski that Davis would hit 30 homers this season. ZiPS gave Davis a zero percent chance of doing that here in 2012. He has 19 more games to hit the four homers he needs to reach 30 for the year. However, Davis is currently riding a six-game homerless streak, covering 16 ABs and 22 PA.
OFFENSIVE WOES SINCE ALL-STAR BREAK – Everyone knows the Mets have struggled to score runs here in the second half of the season. In 57 games since the break, the Mets have scored two or fewer runs 26 times and are 3-23 in that span. It’s not much better when they score three or four runs, either. The Mets are 7-16 in those outings. When they score five or more runs, the Mets are 12-5. All five of those losses came in July when the pitching was so bad. They have won 11 straight games in which they scored at least five runs, dating back to July 30th.
In their first 57 games of the year, the Mets were 20-7 when they scored five or more runs. So they reached that threshold more often and had a higher winning percentage (.741 to .706) earlier in the season. But now that the SP seems to be back on track, the team’s woes are squarely on the shoulders of the disappointing offense.
HARD-LUCK NIESE – Given the information in the last note, it should come as no surprise that a starting pitcher is having a hard time posting Wins. In his last seven games, Jonathon Niese has 6 Quality Starts, a 2.47 ERA, a 1.035 WHIP, a 3.67 K/BB ratio and a 3-4 record. While it’s not showing up in his decisions, Niese is finally putting a full season together after fading badly down the stretch the past two seasons.
BIG POWER OUTAGE FOR DW – A lot of the offensive woes can be traced back to David Wright, who was so magnificent in the first two months of the season and so much closer to an average player the last few months. In his last 42 games, a stretch covering 176 PA, Wright has hit just 1 HR. You have to go back to 2009 to find a worse stretch. That year, when Wright hit just 9 HR in the debut season of Citi Field, Wright went 207 PA with just 1 HR.
HARVEY SWINGS THE LUMBER – Easily one of the bright spots of the second half has been the pitching of Matt Harvey, who has been even better than advertised in his first nine starts. Not only has Harvey been impressive on the mound, he’s been a very good hitter, too. In 19 PA, Harvey has an .875 OPS and 3 RBIs. The best season for a pitcher hitting (minimum of 20 ABs) is Skip Lockwood in 1976, who posted a .789 OPS. A former infielder, Lockwood was used as a PH 32 times in his career.
TORRES NOT QUITE THE FIELDER WE WERE PROMISED – One of the main reasons the Mets acquired Andres Torres in the offseason was for the defensive upgrade he was supposed to provide over Angel Pagan, last year’s center fielder. But in an injury-plagued season, Torres has not been a defensive star in 2012. In 770.2 innings, Torres has 0 Defensive Runs Saved and a (-1.3) UZR. Meanwhile, Pagan has a +0.2 UZR in 1,142 innings this year. And there’s no need to embarrass Torres further by mentioning their respective hitting numbers.
PITCHERS SET CLUB RECORD – It may not be the record that you hope they would set but the 2012 Mets pitching staff is going in the history books nonetheless. This season the club has used 28 pitchers, breaking the all-time mark of 27 established in 1967 and then tied – strangely enough – in 2006. So, congratulations Rob Johnson – they couldn’t have set the record without you!