I Might Be Wrong, But… Mets Rule 5 Guys, Josh Satin, Jeff Kaplan, Steve Matz, Akeel Morris, 2013 Salary Template, Rarefied Air

I can’t find an official Rule 5 list, but I did compile at least these guys:

P – Zack Wheeler (ya think?), Chris Schwinden, Gonzalez Germen, Darin Gorski, Brad Holt, Armondo Rodriguez, Luis Cessa

IF – Josh Satin, Eric Campbell, Alan Dykstra, Jefry Marte, Wilfredo Tovar, Aderlin Rodriguez

OF – Alonzo Harris

C – Juan Centeno, Francisco Pena

-I have to think that 1B-2B-OF Josh Satin will be one of the first players lost in the Rule Five Draft (December 6, 2012). I did talk with Josh on Friday night and he reminded me that, technically, he still has two more years on his Mets contract. You sign your life away for seven years when you’re drafted and, in the case if Satin, it sure seems like a lifetime of hell. This is a guy that has a 5-year stat line of: .303/.396/.462/.857 and he just can’t get this team to take him serious. Let’s compare this to other minor league career stat lines… Lucas Duda (6-yrs): .284/.380/.469/.849… Kirk Nieuwenhuis (5-yrs): .280/.354/.464/.817… Ike Davis (3-yrs): .288/.371/.467/.837… Daniel Murphy (4-yrs): .295/.356/.452/.808… the Mets were going to play him exclusively last year in the outfield during the Venezuelan Fall League, but it just didn’t happen. According to Baseball Cube, he still hasn’t played a game in the outfield and, if you don’t try here, at least trade the guy and get yourself someone before you’re going to lose your next Mike Carp.

-Speaking of Rule Five candidates… that aren’t (or are they?… 27-yr. old RHRP Jeff Kaplan clawed himself back from repeated injuries and posted a 2012 stat line (St.Lucie/Binghamton) of: 5-0, 3.50, 25-appearances. He’s 17-14, 3.02 lifetime, with 212-K in 259-IP. He gets a 6th year push due to his only one appearance in 2010. Considered a finesse pitcher, he has given up only nine home runs his entire career.

Jeff was philosophical about his career so far: “Mack, this off season will be devoted to making sure I am healthy and ready to go next season. There are some things that I can’t control, but what I can do is make sure I am preparing myself the best I can. I believe I am Rule 5 eligible, but I can’t answer that for sure, I do not keep up with that kind of stuff, sorry. All I am focused on at this point is being able to pitch. Hope that helps. Jeff

I expect Kaplan will start 2013 back with Binghamton, get his legs, and move on to Las Vegas by the all-star break.

Someone far from worrying about the Rule 5 Draft is SP Steve Matz. He just started getting his strength back in 2012 with a horrible Kingsport (6-starts, 2-1, 1.55) when the arm tightened up, probably from throwing too hard (100) too early. Matz told me last Sunday that he’s fine:

“Hey Mack, hope all is well. Just got done with instructs feeling good after long tossing so I’m just on a normal off season program until next year.”

Observation: Still only 21, I see him finished 2013 in Savannah, St. Lucie in 2014, and a Queens ETA (26-yrs. old).

I talked to P Akeel Morris and asked if he received a winter assignment this year. Morris said: “Hey Mack, no sir I’m not… not this year.” Everything was going along hunky-dory for Morris. He was a top SP prospect out of the Virgin Islands and went 8-G, 6-ST, 1-1, 2.19 for the GCL Mets in 2010 and 11-G, 11-ST, 3-2, 2.86 for Kingsport in 2011. Then, everything just seem to go to hell, ending with a 7-18 start (2.1-IP, 7-ER) followed by 7-24 (2.0-IP, 10-ER). Who leaves a kid in for 10 runs in the first two innings? The geniuses at K-Port immediately banished him to the bullpen, which might have been the best thing to happen to him. The pressure was off the 19-year old and he actually settled down, giving up only two runs in his last five outings (16-IP, 27-K). Morris added that there was nothing wrong with his arm: “My arm feels good… No there was nothing physically wrong.. Just had a tough year”. Observation: Like fellow-fallen prospect Juan Urbina, there really is no room for the two of them in the 2013 Savannah rotation, which will feature the crew from Brooklyn and John Gant. Hell, there isn’t even room for Miller Diaz. It looks like Savannah has a new middle reliever, with closer potential.

Here’s your 2013 “Salary Template” as of today:

SP (4) – Johan Santana $31mil, SP R.A. Dickey $5mil, Jon Niese $3mil, Matt Harvey $490K

RP (6) – Frank Francisco $6.5 million, Jeurys Familia $490K, Jenry Mejia $490K, Robert Carson $490K, Elvin Ramirez $490K, Josh Edgin $490K

IF (1) – David Wright $15.350mil

OF –(3) Jason Bay $19mil, Jordany Valdespin $490K, Kirk Nieuwenhuis $490K,

That’s 14 members of the 25-man that total $83,770,000

Guys (and their 2012 salary) that still need to be added, are:

SP – Dillon Gee $502K

RP – Bobby Parnell $504K, Manny Acosta $875K

IF – Justin Turner $491,209, Ruben Tejada $491,209, Josh Thole $498,920 (going into arbitration), Ike Davis $506,690 (going into arbitration), Daniel Murphy $512,192 (going into arbitration),

OF – Mike Baxter $480K, Lucas Duda $497,218

That’s 10 more members of the 25-man, which now total 24. You’re short a catcher (Shoppach).

The 10 added had a combined 2012 salary of $5,358,438

‘HoJo’s Mojo’, over at Metsmerized, estimates that it will cost the Mets around $6.5mil more to close a deal for Murphy, Thole, Davis, and Parnell. I add a $2mil salary for Shoppach and the numbers come in at:

25-men, $99,462,438, no new players

Most vulnerable player/projection: Acosta – $963K

There seems to be around nothing to spend to improve here unless you replace someone already in uniform with a new face.

Our friends over at Metsmerized made a good point this past week. The lighter air in Las Vegas could distort both sides of the stats. Hitters will find it easier getting ball off the bat, while pitchers will have a devil of a time keeping their ERAs down.

‘Mr. North Jersey’, over at The Real Dirty Mets added to this by comparing the AAA-IL and AAA-PCL over a 5-year period: IL: .261/.329/.399/8,208-HR/41,120-RBI… PCL: .278/.348/.434, 11,163-HR, 55,882-RBI (not even close).

I was stationed in Denver and spent time playing tennis in Boulder. It’s a lot different folks and things just seem to go easier with ‘something’ in your hands (bat, club, racket, etc.). I’m sure the Mets are rethinking their priorities regarding Zack Wheeler and Darin Gorski. On the other hand, do you hype up Wilmer Flores and Matt den Dekker? Lastly, what a great place to send a marginal hitting prospect to pump up the jam for a possible in-season trade. ‘Mr. North Jersey’ added.

17 comments for “I Might Be Wrong, But… Mets Rule 5 Guys, Josh Satin, Jeff Kaplan, Steve Matz, Akeel Morris, 2013 Salary Template, Rarefied Air

  1. Name
    October 14, 2012 at 3:17 pm

    Here’s your list courtsey of Chris Walendin.

    http://tpgmets.blogspot.com/p/rule-5.html

    • Mack Ade
      October 14, 2012 at 5:27 pm

      Thanks, Name.

  2. Charles
    October 14, 2012 at 5:48 pm

    If I’m the mets, I promote Frank Viola to Binghamton and leave Gorski and Wheeler there until they jump to the Mets. I would risk them shattering confidence or getting in trouble in Vegas. I know they want Viola nurturing the younger guys, but I’d want my best minor league pitching coach closer to the big jump, letting him get them mentally ready for the bright lights and big city. AAA has become more of a wasteland for 4A players anyway.

    • Mack Ade
      October 14, 2012 at 6:13 pm

      Charles:

      It’s a viable idea and might be on the table.

      I don’t know what to do with Viola. He is that valuable.

      I will say this. I’m not sure he can teach Wheeler anything more. The baseball world is in love with Matt Harvey right now, and he may be the best draft pick they have made in a decade, but if you line up ten scouts, nine will still tell you that Wheeler has more ‘stuff’.

      Nothing, including the air in Las Vegas, is going to stop Wheeler from getting to Queens sometime in 2013. It would NOT be a confidence builder to leave him and Gorski behind in Binghamton, which will have its own weather problems in April. No, I’d send both to Vegas, lock them in their rooms at night, and live with the conditions all baseball organizations live with in that league.

      Regarding Viola, it looks like Savannah will have a 5-man Hispanic rotation. I’m much rather they have someone they can relate to and who “speaks the language”.

      IMO, send Viola to Florida. The final peg of the 2014+ rotation will come from that crew and they look to him as a God. He literally created Jake deGrom and Michael Fulmer by controlling their pitch counts.

      • Mack Ade
        October 14, 2012 at 6:18 pm

        One additional benefit about having Viola in St. Lucie.

        He would be ‘in town’ for one-on-one sessions with whoever is in extended camp. This REALLY comes into play before the short-season teams start their season.

        I would love to see him working with the likes of Steven Matz, Zach Dotson, Corey Oswalt, and possibly Akeel Morris and Juan Urbina.

        • October 16, 2012 at 9:17 am

          Excellent point, Mack. Having Viola in St. Lucie seems like it makes a lot of sense, given how highly he appears to be regarded as both a coach and a teacher.

  3. Charles
    October 14, 2012 at 6:12 pm

    Wouldn’t risk*

  4. Charles
    October 14, 2012 at 8:17 pm

    You’re right. St lucie it is.

  5. TJ
    October 14, 2012 at 8:41 pm

    Mack,
    Viola in St. Lucie, yes sir.
    Roster-wise, we’ve all done the exercise and the math and lack of dough, but Sandy Wilpon is no dummy and knows he needs to change it up somewhat. How he does it is anyone’s guess, but it’s time for him to pack away the codespeak and make some deals. Not just deals for the sake of deals, but deals to help the team in the short, mid, and long term. If he makes the right calls on who to keep and who to desal, I’ll resume calling him Sandy Alderson. Another winter like last and he’ll be Sandy Wilpon for another year.

    • Mack Ade
      October 14, 2012 at 11:09 pm

      TJ:

      Regarding: “we’ve all done the exercise and the math and lack of dough”, I’m sorry… I thought posting this was informative. I was just trying to point out that you are not going to see any major trades this off-season.

      • TJ
        October 15, 2012 at 8:50 am

        Mack,
        I look forward to your posts and insight. I was not being critical of your post, the numbers are very important for us to understand and a prerequisite to the moves this winter. Just saying that those of us that follow the Mets as closely understand the limitations. There are many posts to “sign this guy”, “trade for that guy”, but as you displayed, the lack of payroll will impact virtually evey possible move. Sandy will have a very tough time selling more or less the same roster, even if patience is the best path to take, so it will be quite interesting to see how this unfolds. If he does nothing more than sign DW and/or RA, the Wilpons could have saved the $3 mil in salary they pay him annually, and the fanbase, myself included, will become more skeptical of “the plan”. I’m ready for a move or two that few see coming, one that helps in 2013 and beyond while still retaining the key pieces (like Fulmer, Montero, Flores).

      • TJ
        October 15, 2012 at 8:52 am

        Mack,
        One more question – down the road do you see Matz as a starter or closer-type? Thanks.

        • Mack Ade
          October 15, 2012 at 10:08 am

          It’s hard to tell with Matz right now because he can’t seem to keep his arm healthy. He easily sat 96-98 last season and hit 100 a couple of times which would make him a great closer

  6. October 14, 2012 at 9:44 pm

    Satin has essentially moved one level at a time – not sure how that translates into “hell.” Lee Stevens played 456 games at Triple-A in four years and then went overseas at age 26 to get a chance. There are a ton of guys who’ve had it worse than Satin.

    It sure would help him if he had an established position. You can say he’s like Murphy, but Murphy worked himself into a good first baseman and an improving second baseman. It’s tough to judge minor league fielding numbers but I don’t recall ever seeing a scouting report that described him as a good fielder.

    I’m happy Mike Carp has gotten a shot in the majors but outside of a BABIP-fueled stretch in 2011, he just hasn’t been that big a loss. In 173 lifetime games in the majors (608 PA), Carp has a 1.1 fWAR. He’s a below-average player.

    Now, Jeff Keppinger is a guy they gave up on for no reason. Of course they didn’t lose him in Rule 5 but gave him away in a pointless trade…

    Mets might lose Satin in Rule 5, but I’ll wager anything you want he won’t be one of the first five guys picked.

    • Mack Ade
      October 14, 2012 at 11:20 pm

      Brian:

      Regarding Josh Satin being lost in the Rule 5, I meant one of the first Mets players lost.

      I’m sorry

    • Mack Ade
      October 15, 2012 at 10:11 am

      Satin was tagged (by a writer) when he played Savannah as a “bad second fielder”. I never saw it but, at the same time, there wasn’t anything special about his field work.

      He is “another Murphy”.

    • Mack Ade
      October 15, 2012 at 4:04 pm

      Matt Cerrone: “By the way, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Satin get picked up by another team. He’s had good, stable numbers through his minor-league career. And, he’s probably at a point where he needs to be given a chance or end up drifting away in the farm. I bet a team snags him.”

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