Trading R.A. Dickey… For whom? | Mets360

Trading R.A. Dickey… For whom?

November 19, 2012
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There has been TOO much talk about the Mets keeping/trading R.A. Dickey without any real discussion over what they think they could realistically get for a 37-year old Cy Young.  It’s great that he throws a pitch that’s easy on the arm and has shown remarkably good health but age is always a concern and just as the Mets are more eager to trade Dickey than David Wright because of age… so to are teams willing to pay more for a player in his prime.

Step 1: Trade Candidates

Identify teams who have a need for Dickey.  Those who have obvious holes in their rotations and play in competitive divisions that they think they might actually stand a chance in.  The reasoning is that a team who feels like they need Dickey in 2013 is going to pay more than a team who would merely like to have Dickey in 2013.  The reports I’ve heard have linked 12 teams to interest in Dickey.  I’m going to venture 10:

  • Atlanta Braves – Atlanta is still a well built team and the Nationals have not yet pulled away with the NL East, so there is always the chance that they look to improve their rotation to attempt to claw their way back into NL East dominance.
  • Baltimore Orioles – Might 2012 have been an anomaly?  Maybe, but one thing I’m sure of is that Baltimore won’t think so.  They see the AL East as a jewel that can be stolen from the typical hands of the Yankees and Red Sox.
  • Boston Red Sox – Boston doesn’t look like a contender right now but Boston (thanks to Los Angeles) is able to spend some money to improve their team.  It would be shocking for Boston to not be seen as a player for many names this off season.
  • Chicago White SoxRobin Ventura’s White Sox are a solid team but they could use a strong pitcher to stack up behind Sale and Peavy.
  • Detroit Tigers – Detroit just made waves by signing Torii Hunter but they could still use a second star-quality pitcher behind their man Verlander.
  • Los Angeles Angels – With Haren moving on the Angels suddenly have holes in their once epic rotation.  Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson are good but I have to think that they’d love to have Dickey as their #3.
  • New York Yankees – Let us not forget the Yankees who have C.C. Sabathia, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova and Michael Pineda.  Remember that Pineda is not due back until June and that players like David Phelps, Adam Warren and Dellin Betances are penciled into the rotation.
  • St. Louis Cardinals – On paper you wouldn’t be too upset with Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Jamie Garcia but with Garcia’s health in question the Cardinals could look to add another pitcher.
  • Texas Rangers – Questions everywhere: When will Neftali Perez and Colby Lewis be healthy? How will Yu Darvish fair in his second season?  Is Martin Perez ready?  Perhaps an R.A. Dickey reunion would be in order?
  • Toronto Blue Jays – Before the mega trade the Blue Jays made a ton of sense.  Now… I can still see it but my confidence is less.  They have Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero, J.A. Happ and injured players like Kyle Drabek.  With all of that said… I still see them as players for Dickey but the need is much lower.

Step 2: Focus On Met Needs

Identify which of these teams in turn has the MLB ready young players at catcher or outfield that the Mets might want if they were to make a deal.  Let’s see if we can make ourselves a neat little list.

Catchers:

  • Christian Bethancourt, C Atl: Bethancourt is young (21 for most of the 2013 season) and he’s already ready to be an MLB catcher (at least defensively).  His hitting isn’t yet at the caliber that would get fans excited.  An athletic catcher he’s going to have the legs to steal a few bases but he’s only got a career minor league OPS of .653 and that isn’t good enough for the majors.
  • Caleb Joseph, C Bal: Jospeh is going to be 27 in June but if not for a certain player named Matt Wieters.  Jospeh has slugged .408 through 5 minor league seasons and was great in AA in 2012.  The flip side is that he stunk in the 22 games he played in AAA making me question if he’s worth trading for or if he’s simply a guy you look to include in a larger deal.
  • Christian Vazquez, C Bos: Vazquez wasn’t phenomenally impressive in 2012.  (.254/.344/.369 and a .713 OPS) He struggled once he was promoted to AA.  23 in August he’s still young and on track for a catcher of his age.  The reason I pick him out of the lineup is that in 2011 he hit 18 HRs and slugged .505 in the SAL.  If Boston cannot trade Lavarnway… Vazquez is the catcher we’d want.
  • Ryan Lavarnway, C Bos: Let us imagine that the Red Sox trade for someone like Mike Napoli it would open them up to trading someone like Ryan Lavarnway.  What you must understand about him is that he’s not the complete package.  He’s a hitting catcher who has yet to really hit in the majors.  His power is VERY real and I believe he will someday hit in the majors.
  • Tyler Flowers, C Chi AL: Color me skeptical but Flowers is a long long way from being worth trading a pitcher like Dickey for.  The only way that Flowers is the catcher in the deal is if someone like Thompson was the centerpiece of the deal.
  • Carlos Ramirez, C LAA: He’ll be 25 in 2013 and repeating AA for the first time.  Ramirez only really impressed in one season (for me) in 2011 and in A+ CAL he managed 21 doubles and 4 HRs while hitting .348 in 52 games.  Spending a full year in AA with a triple slash of .204/.312/.276 does a lot to make me think he’s not that special but he’s got a good eye… so there’s that.
  • Gary Sanchez, C NYY: The Yankees will not be willing to trade Sanchez.  I say this because his name has been floated on tons of trade offers and he’s still a Yankee.  The good on Sanchez is that he’s mastered his way through A+ and he’s going to be 20 in 2013.  The knock against him is that he does nothing for the Mets until 2014-2016 and I’m not sure Alderson has the ability to be the long-sighted.
  • Austin Romine, C NYY: The second option is Romine.  He’ll be 24 but he’s also just about ready to take the helm for an MLB franchise.  He was hurt in 2012 but seems reliable for an OPS above .700 when he is healthy.  Because of his injury the Mets would need to be getting more than Romine back.
  • Cody Stanley, C Stl: The theme with catchers is flaws.  Stanley will be 24 and hasn’t played above A+.  He’s hit fairly well everywhere that he has played but there isn’t this overwhelming groundswell of data supporting him as a trade target.
  • Jorge Alfaro, C Tex: Texas has a few rated prospects but none of them have really progressed beyond low A.  Alfaro will only be 20 and could be ready for A+ but it’s another case of me not thinking that Alderson can target a player who isn’t likely to contribute by 2015.
  • Travis D’Arnaud, C Tor: Pretty much every name on this list until now (Maybe Sanchez) has been part of a package for Dickey.  Travis D’Arnaud would be a 1 for 1 swap.  D’Arnaud is a righty, with power, who hits for contact, can field his position and is only 24.  His numbers are boosted by the PCL which the Mets will soon enjoy but he’s already whispered to replace the powerful J.P. Arencibia as the starting catcher for the Blue Jays.  If the Mets could snag D’Arnaud I would be quite happy.

Outfielders:

  • Todd Cunnigham, OF Atl: At 24 and moving up to AAA, Cunningham isn’t the most exciting guy you’ll see.  He’s not a power guy and he’s not a 50 SB guy but he does a little of both… hey… that sounds familiar (Kirk Nieuwenhuis).  Cunningham is a switch hitter with a good OBP who could leadoff for the Mets as early as 2013.
  • L.J. Hoes, OF Bal: Hoes is again not the prototypical power corner guy nor the speedy leadoff hitter.  He does show pretty decent power and some speed along with a solid OBP which leads to him having a yearly OPS around .750.  What is nice is that he will be 23 and ready for the MLB.
  • Bryce Brentz, OF Bos: If the Mets are talking about Christian Vazquez then it might be realistic to talk about Brentz.  Brentz managed a .296/.355/.478 in 135 games at AA last season and he’ll be 24 through the 2013 season.  If he continues on schedule he’s a guy who will be knocking on the door mid-way through the season and he looks to have the makeup to be a solid corner OF.
  • Jackie Bradley Jr., OF Bos: While Brentz could be the cornerstone of a deal, Bradley is more like the other names listed.  His fatal flaw (for the Mets) is that he also is a lefty and doesn’t fill the immediate need for a righty.
  • Trayce Thompson, OF Chi AL: I mentioned Thompson in conjuction with Flowers.  If the White Sox really wanted R.A. Dickey they could fill two of the Met needs by trading the pair to New York.  Thompson is a big righty who has shown good power.  The White Sox rocketed him up through A+, AA and AAA in 2012 but I’m betting he’s a safer bet to start 2013 in AA.  At 22 he could become the starting corner outfielder for the Mets before he turned 23.
  • Avisail Garcia, OF Det: Another player who is 22 but here is one who is MLB ready.  Between A+ and AA he managed 17 doubles, 14 HRs and 23 SBs in 2012 and also managed a .319 average through 47 MLB at bats.  He’s 6’4” and listed at 240 Lbs and might be an option if Detroit becomes a player.
  • Zolio Almonte, OF NYY: Assuming that Sanchez is off the table I might be very satisfied with a package of Romine and Almonte from the Yankees.  In 106 games at AA Almonte managed .277/.322/.487 which amounted to a .808 OPS.  That seems on line with his development and he looks like someone who might blossom into a 30 HR threat.  He strikes out about once per game which isn’t great but is better than Matt Den Dekker.
  • Oscar Taveras, OF Stl: He’s a lefty and I don’t care.  He hit .321/.380/.572 in his first season at AA at the age of 20.  I anticipate absurdly good numbers in the PCL and think that he’d force an audition after the All-Star Break. I’m willing to say it wasn’t a fluke as he slugged .584 the year before in Low A.
  • Mike Olt, OF Tex: Texas is currently trying to get a player with a little more certainty like Justin Upton and might trade Olt to do that but if not he’s got to be a big guy on the Met radar.  A righty with good power he is the exact match for what the Mets are looking for but the Rangers are not guaranteed to be looking for a pitcher so don’t get too excited.

Step 3: Evaluate

The Mets best matches are with Boston (Bryce Brentz and Christian Vazquez), Chicago (Tyler Flowers and Trayce Thompson), the Yankees (Austin Romine and Zolio Almonte), Texas (Jorge Alfaro and Mike Olt) and Toronto (Travis D’Arnaud).  Frankly, I would take any of these trades but then again I’m a supporter for trading R.A. Dickey.  So I’m posing the question to the fans who read the site.

Would one of these packages suit you in a trade for R.A. Dickey?

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42 Responses to Trading R.A. Dickey… For whom?

  1. November 19, 2012 at 3:35 pm

    none of these sound particularly attractive. Give RA a 2 year extension.

    • David Groveman
      November 19, 2012 at 3:37 pm

      Travis D’Arnaud, Bryce Brentz, Trayce Thompson and Mike Olt are REALLY solid options. All would rank in the top 2 prospects for the Mets. (We could debate them vs. Wheeler for #1)

    • David Groveman
      November 19, 2012 at 3:41 pm

      Other issue with that:

      Why in the world would R.A. Dickey accept a 2 year deal?

      • Name
        November 19, 2012 at 6:37 pm

        It’s a 2 year extension, not a 2 year deal.

        • David Groveman
          November 20, 2012 at 9:10 am

          He just won the Cy Young… I think he’s looking for 5 years

          • Name
            November 20, 2012 at 9:43 pm

            I don’t think RA is that greedy. No report that i’ve heard mentions anything past 4 years. A 2 year extension is technically like a 3 year deal, it will run him through his age-40 season. If it were me, i would give him a 2 year extension with a vesting option, regular option, and buyout on the 3rd year.

            • David Groveman
              November 21, 2012 at 7:55 am

              That seems like a bargain. I don’t think the mets will get him for a bargain.

              • Name
                November 21, 2012 at 11:57 am

                Hardly seems like a bargain to me. RA is going into uncharted territory and there is significant risk in signing him. He could be dominant for 10 more seasons or could be dominant for 1 year, we just don’t know. Uncertainty means lower price.
                Just curious, what do you think is fair value. You can’t possibly think that 5 years is fair value considering the amount of risk in RA(unless he wants to take a lower Average annual salary)

                • David Groveman
                  November 21, 2012 at 12:04 pm

                  I think R.A. Dickey on the open market would get 4 years ($60+ Mil) with an average of $15 per year.

                  If teams got into a bidding war he’d get as many as 5 years ($90 Mil) for an average of $18 Mil per year.

                  If the Mets wanted to extend him: They’d need to add $5 Mil to his 2013 salary ($10 Mil) and offer him 2 years ($40 Mil) 3 years ($54 Mil).

                  I’m in the camp of thinking that the Wilpons have no money for ANY of these options.

  2. Joe Gomes
    November 19, 2012 at 3:46 pm

    Take D’Arnaud and call it a good day. After the 2013 season, go hard after Dickey and bring him back. Lol…man, that would be so nice. Maybe we can do the same with David Wright.

    • David Groveman
      November 19, 2012 at 3:51 pm

      I don’t think so, but it wouldn’t hurt to try. I don’t think teams will trade for either without negotiating to re-sign them.

    • November 19, 2012 at 8:18 pm

      I have Travis D’Arnaud on my dynasty team – he’s a great talent.

      He’s also a guy who has played in 67, 114 and 71 games the past three years. Catchers have a high bust rate and injuries are part of the reason why. D’Arnaud has suffered a serious injury in two of the past three years. Catchers get injured a lot and D’Arnaud gets injured a lot, even for a catcher.

      I’m not opposed to trading Dickey and/or Wright for prospects. But there’s a huge risk in getting D’Arnaud, especially as the only part of a trade for, say, Dickey. Perhaps he’s a high risk/high reward type of guy. I’m okay classifying him that way. I just want everyone to know up front that “high risk” is part of the package when you are discussing D’Arnaud.

      • David Groveman
        November 20, 2012 at 9:10 am

        Agreed, all prospects have risk and D’Arnaud is no exception

  3. Name
    November 19, 2012 at 6:55 pm

    IF the Mets trade Dickey, they have 2 options.
    1. For Prospects, which means they are waiving the white flag on the 2013 season.
    2. For players that improve the team, which is a redistribution of talent on the team.

    The options you listed above are mostly examples of the first option, which i don’t agree with at this very moment.

    • Metsense
      November 20, 2012 at 7:51 am

      Great compilation of players and a great encyclopedia of information. Thanks for the hard work done. It is going to make a good reference this winter.
      I’m with Name on this one, a 2 year extension at qualifying rate each year. Every five days when RA takes the ball, the Mets have a significant chance to win. I wouldn’t give that up uless I was forced to.(RA wants too much)
      I would be very reluctant to trade any starting pitcher, their strength, until the up and coming minor leaguers pitchers develope further. Improve the defense in the OF and 2B and try to compete in 2013 that way. (One exception: Gee in a Arencibia package because he is young, team controlled and proven)

      • David Groveman
        November 20, 2012 at 9:14 am

        Why are we concerned with competing when our outfield has Mike Baxter, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Lucas Duda as the penciled in starters? Here is the rub:

        Sign R.A. Dickey and Wright… you have no money for anything else.

        Don’t sign R.A. Dickey and Wright… you have no reason to spend money.

        Trading Dickey allows the Mets to get prospects like they don’t yet have.

        Trading Dickey also allows the Mets to spend money to improve some of the areas the team is pitiable. I WISH I thought what everyone wants was possible but I think people are asking for too much to go the Met’s way.

        • Name
          November 20, 2012 at 12:21 pm

          I understand your rationale of “Why bother competing if we’re not expected to reach the World Series”, but i don’t agree with it.

          For one, the goal of a team should be to just make the playoffs, because after that anything can happen and it’s basically based on luck.

          Secondly, the name of the game is pitching. Most people would agree with this. SP’s generally influence the game the most so it makes sense.

          Thirdly, we have seen too many instances where supposed “bad” teams that weren’t expected to compete who did, and make the playoffs, and also too many instances of the opposite where supposed “good” teams were expected to compete and ended up not making the playoffs. It’s why i think that you shouldn’t close the door on competing before the season because ANYTHING can happen.

          4. While in the end it may seem like there’s no difference if you win 70 games compared to 75 games(both wouldn’t make the playoffs), it actually does matter during the season. Losing causes negativity and losing less means less negativity for the team and the fans of the team.

          As for the money portion, I think you are forgetting any deal with Wright and Dickey are EXTENSTIONS, and do not have any affect on the 2013 payroll. After 2013, we have Santana’s behemoth contract coming off the books, so essentially if we sign Dickey/Wright, they will be replacing Santana’s money.

          Is it so bad to have a wait and see approach? At least we have some optimism going in to next season, and although there might be less buyers and we might have to take a lesser prospect, keep in mind that prospects have huge bust rates as well.

          • David Groveman
            November 20, 2012 at 12:56 pm

            Excellent Points!

            What I don’t want, is to sacrifice 2014 and 2105 and onwards for the sake of being OKAY in 2013.

            For Your First Point: Look at how we stack up against teams in our own division. WITH David Wright and R.A. Dickey we are #4. We have the 3rd best rotation, we have the 4th best lineup and we might have the worst fielding in the NL East.

            Unless we can magically get some players to improve the club, I don’t see why we should hold on desperately to Dickey if he’s just going to keep us ahead of Giancarlo Stanton’s Marlins.

            So… I don’t see Dickey as a play for the playoffs… I see him as a play to be relevant around the World Series. (Which leads to another problem) The Mets would AGAIN not be “BUYERS” or “SELLERS” and we’d end up standing pat. Then fading… and here we are again.

            For Your Second Point: Santana is around for 2013 until he re-injures himself or the Mets find a buyer. After Santana they have Matt Harvey and Jon Niese as front-line starters already in the fold and Dillon Gee and Jeremy Hefner as proven innings eaters. In AA and above the Mets have: Zack Wheeler, Jeurys Familia, Jenrry Mejia, Collin McHugh, Cory Mazzoni, Rafael Montero, Darin Gorski, Chris Schwinden and Jacob DeGrom (It’s a guess). That means the Mets could fill their rotation with quality arms or safe arms depending… or at least fill their rotation internally by 2014. I love Dickey to death but he’s old and this is the peak of his value.

            For Your Third Point: Yes… we can look back at teams like San Diego or Baltimore or Oakland who rise out of nowhere and defy expectations. Yes, it’s usually based on pitching but that success is not usually lasting success.

            To Your Fourth Point: I cannot remember the last extension that did not encompass the current season into the deal. Teams use that year as an added incentive (you’ll make and extra $5 Mil this season AND we’ll pay you beyond it). It seems to me that people are under the impression that R.A. Dickey is going to be willing to accept a “sweetheart” deal where the Mets only extend him through 2015. R.A. Dickey just won the Cy Young… somebody would give him a contract to 2017, I’d guarantee that. I will concede as a minor-league guy… I can live with the team in Queens coming in 4th in the NL East (or 5th) if it means that the team is going to be great down the road… not all fans can do that.

            To Your Fifth (Though Un-numbered) Point: YES!!! It is a TERRIBLE idea to wait and see. The Mets can either play for 2013 and spend money to make the team playoff worthy (which the Wilpons CANNOT afford to do). Or make the hard choices to help the team win in 2014 and beyond.

            • Name
              November 20, 2012 at 7:32 pm

              Good points as well.

              Here’s another option.
              Can we wait a little longer in the offseason before deciding what to do with Dickey?

              I think it’s really too early to start comparing comparing teams to other teams in the division. There is too much left in the offseason.

              Suppose that Sandy were able to sign Bourn(using the money we saved from Bay). Then we are able to procure a trade for Nori Aoki using only prospects. Would a Bourn/Aoki/Duda OF be enough to convince you that the team could compete in 2013?

              Also, i’m kinda surprised that the offseason focus has been mostly on Dickey, Wright, and the OF/C. The bullpen has gotten very little attention, and it was the culprit of the downfall of the 2012 Mets and the part of team that needs to most fixing.

            • November 20, 2012 at 9:09 pm

              Problem is you never know about the future when it comes to pitching. Granted Zach Wheeler appears to be ready to make his debut some time in 2013, the last time the Mets showed off their pitching studs to the world in one season I seem to recall that it was a fiasco. Does Wilson, Pulsipher and Isringhausen ring a bell? Sometimes the future unfolds in ways that we never expect. Are Mets fans coming out to see this team play? Or, do they come out to see R.A. pitch because they know we have a better chance to win the games he starts? Does attendance in Citifield go up when Dickey starts? Doesn’t that help pay for his salary? The only way we will ever get out of this vicious cycle is for the Wilpons’ to sell the team and move on.

              • norme
                November 20, 2012 at 9:44 pm

                Pete, I agree 100% with your last sentence.

              • David Groveman
                November 20, 2012 at 9:52 pm

                We all want them gone. If only it could happen before 2015.

  4. November 19, 2012 at 7:56 pm

    The easiest way for Sandy to get himself fired would be to trade R.A. to either Atlanta or the Yankees. Do you think the fan base will accept to see R.A. in a Yankee uniform pitching in Citifield and shutting out the Mets? Nor do I see R.A in a Braves uniform and the Mets having to face him possibly 4 or 5 times in one season. The only way I could see the Mets trading him should be for a starting center fielder AND catcher. You cannot replace 20 wins with prospects. So that means the Mets will lose between 85 – 95 games next season.How do you expect Fred Wilpon to survive if they put up the white flag before the 2013 season begins? Attendance will continue to drop and no first class free agent will want to come here. So I suggest the Mets keep R.A. and David Wright unless they get an offer so one sided from Anaheim (Pedro Bourjos plus one of their starters)that they can’t refuse.

    • David Groveman
      November 20, 2012 at 9:15 am

      Trading R.A. to a rival would sting, but also… mean that the Mets would demand more. In the end… it might be Cashman or… (I’m not gonna bother looking up the Atlanta GM) who are in jeopardy because of the prospects they traded the Mets for an aged pitcher.

  5. Whitey Bird
    November 20, 2012 at 9:03 am

    The cardinals would have no interest in R.A. Dickey unless he could pinch hit or play shortstop. The Cards are loaded with great young pitchers. Does this author do any research at all or just make it up as he goes?

    • David Groveman
      November 20, 2012 at 9:50 pm

      Looking at St. Louis I felt the team could use Dickey to buckle down the front end of their rotation. I still feel that way. Prospects are great but until they are up in the majors and producing it is hard to get overly excited.

      St. Louis would be well served by adding a pitcher like Dickey as some of there more traditionally reliable names were less reliable.

    • David Groveman
      November 21, 2012 at 8:00 am

      By the way…

      Chris Carpenter is old

      Adam Wainwrightis coming off a bad year

      Jaime Garcia is hurt

      I think St. Louis, who probably knows that the Giants did so well in the playoffs because of pitching, would want R.A. Dickey

  6. November 21, 2012 at 2:44 am

    These aren’t so much trades for Dickey, but outside the box proposals.

    How would you guys react to a deal involving Wilmer Flores and Gavin Floyd with CWS? Obviously fill in more, but Flores is the 3B they’re looking for and Floyd would free up some money for them, hopefully opening the door for us to get a C or OF as well.

    By the same token, do the Cubs have any good MLB C or OF the Mets could get if they took on most of/all of Alfonso Soriano’s contract?

    • David Groveman
      November 21, 2012 at 7:57 am

      Two questions:

      Why do the Mets need/want Gavin Floyd?

      Why would they trade there best hitting prospect for him?

  7. November 21, 2012 at 3:51 am

    Are you saying the Mets should take on Soriano’s remaining 2 years at 19 million? I think the Mets have better options than looking at a 37 year old all or nothing type hitter. It would put their payroll at almost 80 million before any salary arbitration hearings. He is a defensive liability in a spacious Citifield.

    • November 21, 2012 at 11:12 am

      My thought was more take on someone who the other team would want to be rid of but could still serve some type of purpose, and use that leverage to get either a great prospect or much better player for cheap. It’s better to hold onto as much of the farm as possible, if not for other trades as much as rejuvenating the Flushing team, no?

      Soriano is old and a question defensively, but he can actually hit some. If the Mets take on, say 75 percent of his salary, but only if they get a world-beater catcher prospect, I could sign up for that.

      • Name
        November 21, 2012 at 11:50 am

        Epstein said earlier this offseason that he wasn’t looking to trade Soriano away in a salary dump. He pointed to his production this season to justify that. So that scenerio you painted won’t happen. Add the fact that the Mets are cash strapped it wouldn’t make sense for either side.

  8. Chris F
    November 21, 2012 at 10:59 am

    All very interesting reading. I guess all this stay/trade hinges, to me, on one thing (but I think there is more): WHEN will the Mets be competitive?

    Next year would be a fluke to say the least. Miraculous would be another word. But I can see 14 and 15 being reasonable to at least hit the WC, and as Name rightly points out, thats all that matters.

    Keep Wright as a Met and the infield stays solid. Ok, there were some misadventures, but going around the bases, we can make a WC birth: Ike keeps knocking and figures the glove out again, Murph a hit for avg guy and run scorer who can play an increasingly capable 2B, RT is a gem at short, and Wright, the captain. On the mound, we look to be really strong for the 14 and 15 seasons. RA, our veteran arm, filled with knowledge to help the young guys will be here for 14 and 15 and no reason to imagine he will be aweful as he continues to master his craft. Niese, Harvey both will need next year and we will see Wheeler, making the run at ’14 or ’15 seem reasonable. Could a SP rotation of RA, Harvey, Niese, Wheeler, and Gee go far? Id pay to find out. So we need to find a CF, C, and an arm or two for the pen. With the unburdening of the Santana and Bay contracts, and the TV money, the Mets should be financially competitive to get some combo of FA and rental to make a decent go.

    RA will not command a typical CY contract, and he wants to remain a Met. Would we want to trade an undervalued highly productive player? In any event, hes a 2 year gamble, and worth it. After that we only have DW on a long term deal. Isnt there room for balance? I like the idea of having a couple savvy vets to contribute and bring along a young team. Trading these guys for prospects, at least to these eyes, does not make great sense and says being competititve is outside three years, which I dont think needs to be true.

    Chris

    • David Groveman
      November 21, 2012 at 11:44 am

      Hey Chris,

      I think we are in agreement, success in 2013 requires to many “Happy Accidents” to count on. By 2014 and 2015 with Niese, Harvey, Wheeler and others leading the rotation and HOPEFULLY Wright, Davis and Flores leading the offense we could be in contention for the WC.

      However, “What is a TYPICAL Cy Young contract?”

      There is this misconception that R.A. Dickey is as simple to lock up as offering him an extension of 2 years at “Ace” money. ($18-$25 Mil) Dickey DOES start 2013 at the age of 38 so signing him for that much through the age of 41 is risky enough but the reality is, that if he does any due diligence and looks into his “Open Market Value” he’s not going to sign a 2 year extension. I would say that Dickey will look to be locked up through 2016 or 2017 though that will likely lower his yearly haul a little. ($15-$20 Mil)

      The OTHER misconception is that we are trading for prospects who will not help the team be competitive right away. The Mets are looking at players who are already hitting in AA and above. Travis D’Arnaud, J.P. Arencibia, Bryce Brentz, Trayce Thompson, Ryan Lavarnway, Austin Romine, Zolio Almonte… etc… They are going to net 2-3 players and can fill voids in the farm system by doing so.

      If the Mets had money to spend, I’d be saying something different.

      If the Wilpons would be drummed out of the team in 2013, I’d be saying something different.

      With the Wilpons clawed into the Mets until 2015 and about $85 Mil available for the Mets to spend I am looking at what will help the Mets not stay in neutral and actually get better.

      David

      • Name
        November 21, 2012 at 12:02 pm

        Where are you getting the numbers for Dickey’s contract? You can’t just base them off what other CY Young pitchers and elite pitchers get because Dickey is a different mold than them(Knuckleballer, old age)

        Most reports i have seen are nowhere near those numbers. They are 10 million on the low end and 15 million on the high end with 12-13 million being the most common number i’m seeing.

        • David Groveman
          November 21, 2012 at 12:15 pm

          Cy Young winners generally get into the top money paid to pitchers which would be in the $25 Mil range.

          Since R.A. Dickey is 38, he’d not qualify for that kind of money.

          So we’ll start him in the range of about ($15-$20 Mil)

          Now… most Cy Young winners also get longer deals so… if he was going to accept a deal only adding two seasons to his current contract he’d probably be demanding the upper threshold of that.

          If Dickey would Extend for something like you are suggesting ($5 Mil raise in 2013 and 3 more years at $10 Mil per) I’d be in the re-sign Dickey camp. I just see Greinke being the plan A and Dickey being the plan B for a lot of teams and that will crank up his value.

          Lastly… $10 Mil per… could be out of the Wilpon’s price range.

          • Name
            November 21, 2012 at 4:36 pm

            There’s one main problem i have with your thinking.

            The top paid pitcher in 2012 was… Santana. His contract? 24 million. Next highest? Sabathia, 23 million, then Cliff Lee 21.5 million, and then no 4-5 are Halladay/Verlander at 20 million. So that $25 million figure you threw out there is too high and consequently so is that 15-20 range. My thinking is that he should be around the 11-16 range.

            I think in the second point you are comparing apples to oranges.

            I think too many people are scapegoating (or preparing a scapegoat) the Wilpons for the negotiations with Wright/Dickey. If you want your favorite team’s ownership to eschew rational decisions and sign players at any cost, you should go root for the Yankees.

          • Name
            November 21, 2012 at 4:41 pm

            I just reread what i wrote and i realized that my 3rd point was worded poorly and could be considered an attack on you. I should have used “one” instead of “you”.

            So if one wants his/her favorite team to eschew rational decisions and sign players at any cost, one should go root for the Yankees.

  9. November 21, 2012 at 7:54 pm

    How about you giving us some numbers as to where you think R.A. should get.Forget hometown discounts and put him in Anaheim or Texas and then tell me how much he is worth. how does 3 years at 11 million and a 4th year option.What many people fail to see or are just willing not to take notice is that the market for reliable starters is thin.All these free agents you read about I

  10. November 21, 2012 at 7:57 pm

    Sorry I pressed a wrong button. I wonder can we compare Dickeys accomplishment here in New York with a team that provides poor defense and an anemic offense to support him and see how much he would get as a free agent.

  11. Chris
    December 9, 2012 at 5:49 pm

    I’d take the white sox idea if I had to choose. Wow he wants at least 2 years and 30 mil no way anyone would give dickey 5 for 90mil your nuts!!!

  12. Name
    December 9, 2012 at 11:23 pm

    Thank god for the Rays! Now that Myers is off the market, we can safely sign Dickey and be done with it!

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