Over the next few weeks, we are going to look at the 15 or so Mets who figure to get the most playing time in 2013. The staff of Mets360 is going to offer up predictions for those players in some basic categories. None of us have detailed projection systems. Instead, this is just what we feel the player is going to contribute in the upcoming season.
There is no doubt that a detailed projection system is the way to go on these things. But, those are far from infallible, too. My hope is that with the wide range of opinions that we offer here, that our group can come up with some reliable “wisdom of the crowd” numbers for the players under discussion. We kick things off with a look at Ike Davis.
Since we did not forecast the individual numbers that go into the triple slash lines, we are going to use average for the counting numbers and median for AVG, OBP and SLG to come up with our Mets360 forecast. Here is what our group as a whole projects for Davis in 2013:
PA – 576
AVG – .265
OBP – .345
SLG – .500
HR – 31
RBIs – 95
Ks – 136
You may have noticed a name missing from the above chart – mine. I did not intentionally leave mine out. We have 13 people who were supposed to contribute to this project and only 12 responded. In order to make the median numbers work out, my set was removed. Hopefully for the next projection mine will be back in with the group, where they belong.
Here are my numbers – 562 PA, .252/.333/.489, 31 HR, 95 RBIs, 120 Ks
Finally, let’s close with a table comparing the Mets360 numbers to those of two projection systems – Bill James and ZiPS.
In general, the Bill James projections tend to be more “optimistic” than other systematic projection systems. In the particular case of Davis, it seems like ZiPS is having trouble handling his schizophrenic year in 2012, when he started off so poorly and ended up strong. These systems also take into account previous numbers and Davis playing so few games in 2011 is undoubtedly hurting the forecast, too.
Our forecasts will run on Thursdays and Saturdays for the next few weeks.