Next up in our projection series is David Wright. It was a tale of two seasons for Wright in 2012. In the beginning of the year he was an MVP candidate, playing his best ball in the majors ever. After the All-Star break, Wright was a completely different player, hitting worse than he did in 2011, when he posted a career-low .771 OPS.
Whether it is cause or effect, it’s impossible not to notice the difference in Wright’s strikeouts from when he was hot and when he was not. Here are his numbers in the two time periods mentioned above:
1st Half – .351/.441/.563 with a 13.2 K%
2nd Half – .258/.334/.416 with a 20.7 K%
Generally, splits have very little predictive value from year to year in populations as a whole. But in the particular case of Wright – because what he did after the All-Star break mirrors what he did in 2011 – they have to be a bit more of a concern than normal. So, with that in mind, here’s what our group thinks Wright will do in 2013:
Most of us feel that Wright will bounce back from his disappointing second half and are predicting the sub-20 K% it will take to make it happen. The outliers are David Groveman, who is predicting an .878 OPS with a 22 K% and me, as I predicted the lowest OPS (.810) along with a 21.7 K%. Doug Parker is also bucking convention, as he predicts a 17 K% and an .815 OPS.
Here’s what the group thinks Wright will do
Finally, let’s close with a table comparing the Mets360 numbers to those of two projection systems – Bill James and ZiPS.
Not surprisingly, our group forecast lines up more with the one by James, usually considered the most “optimistic” forecast from any of the major projection systems. All three see Wright topping 600 PA and keeping his isolated OBP high. And ZiPS forecasts a 20 K% to go along with the poorest overall numbers of the bunch.
Check back Thursday for our next entry in this series.