Predictions for the 2013 Mets

With Grapefruit Season over and the regular season yet to begin, it’s time to check in with my annual predictions column. Some of these predictions that follow come up short of being “bold” yet I believe that all of them fall outside the boundaries of “safe” or “conventional wisdom.” If history is a guide, most of these will not come true. Yet a handful will and who knows – maybe this will be the year I top 50%. And as always, these come with a money back guarantee.

So, here are my 15 predictions for the 2013 Mets.

1. Marlon Byrd will be released/traded for peanuts before September.
2. Collin Cowgill will post an OPS 200-points higher against RHP than his lifetime .514 mark.
3. Travis d’Arnaud will finish with an OBP under .300 in the majors.
4. Lucas Duda will reach 90 RBIs.
5. Josh Edgin gets sent to the minors at some point during the season.
6. Dillon Gee rebounds from a poor Spring to shave 0.50 off his 4.10 2012 ERA.
7. Jeremy Hefner makes at least 25 starts.
8. Shaun Marcum posts an ERA over 4.00 for the first time since 2007.
9. Daniel Murphy hits as many HR as 2011 (6) and 2012 (6) combined.
10. Bobby Parnell becomes the sixth pitcher in franchise history to reach 30 saves.
11. Scott Rice finishes with a better ERA (4.08) and WHIP (1.302) than Tim Byrdak’s Mets career numbers.
12. Despite hitting lower in the order, Ruben Tejada finishes with 100 more PA than he did in 2012.
13. David Wright’s K% will be over 20%.
14. A pitcher the Mets drafted will represent the team at the All-Star game*
15. No Mets RP will record a better stretch in 25+ IP than Manny Acosta did last year when he had a 1.78 ERA and a 0.908 WHIP in 25.1 innings from July 24th to the end of the year.

I’m feeling generous so here’s a bonus prediction:

16. The Mets will finish with more wins than the Yankees.

*****

* – Hat tip to my friend Mike Salfino, who pointed out: “Last All-Star pitcher drafted by the Mets and representing the Mets — Bobby Jones (1991) in 1997.”

13 comments for “Predictions for the 2013 Mets

  1. Reese
    March 31, 2013 at 1:02 pm

    I’ll add the Jordany Valdespin will play even less than he did in 2012 and that may turn out to be the final nail in Collins’ coffin.

    • steevy
      March 31, 2013 at 7:03 pm

      Didn’t he already pencil in Valdespin in for opening day?I’m no fan of TC but he will play Valdespin if he merits it.

      • Name
        March 31, 2013 at 7:34 pm

        Nope. Cowgill is our CF. Here is a link to the opening day lineup.

        http://metsblog.com/metsblog/opening-day-roster-nearly-complete/

        • steevy
          March 31, 2013 at 8:13 pm

          Missed that one.So is Valdespin the Lh part of the platoon?I actually wanted TC fired after last season.

          • Name
            March 31, 2013 at 8:26 pm

            I’ve been preaching about firing TC for a long time now.
            TC said to start the season there will be no platoons, but that could easily change if someone posts extreme splits or struggles early on.
            At this point, Valdespin will probably be a pure utility guy, playing to spell injured players or players who need a rest. My guess is we won’t see him a lot in the beginning
            Niewenhuis seems like he will be the defensive replacement for Duda and Baxter will be more of Pinch hitter.

  2. Metsense
    March 31, 2013 at 9:58 pm

    I’ ll go out on a limb. 70 – 92 with a split of 31 – 50 1st half and 39 – 42 2nd half giving us hope for 2014.
    d’Arnaud and Wheeler get called up before super two status out of desperation and media pressure saying the Mets are cheap.
    Attendance will plummet because of the poor start and indifference on the part of the casual fan.
    Collins gets promoted to player developement and Warthen gets canned at the all star break and there is a new manager and pitching coach for the 2nd half.
    Cowgill is an above average player but Byrd fades.
    There will be some unexpected 5th starters as the season progresses.
    They will win another opening day.7

    • Chris F
      March 31, 2013 at 10:08 pm

      Yep.

    • Name
      April 1, 2013 at 1:11 am

      I think player development would be a demotion, not a promotion. And he probably wouldn’t stay with the Mets once he gets the axe.

  3. April 1, 2013 at 1:00 am

    Sorry Brian I just don’t see Lucas getting enough at bats for 90 R.B.I.S unless it’s with a team like Seattle. Daniel Murphy will hit less than 5 home runs but will make up for in hitting 50 doubles in 2013. Bobby Parnell will never save 30 games here in New York. he just doesn’t handle the pressure well here in New York. Maybe he’ll save 30 games in Seattle?(I see a trade with the Mariners) David Wright having the pressure taken off his shoulders by signing his long extension will have a M.V.P. year and cut down his strikeouts to less than 10%. Finally the Mets will finish ahead of the Phillies in third place. In response to Metsense I don’t see the point of bringing in another caretaker for the second half of the season since that’s Collins role anyway. Don’t forget the Mets are cheap and would have to pay Warthen for the remainder of the season. As for Collins you wait until the season ends to “promote” him and cut his salary.

    • April 1, 2013 at 8:47 am

      I will walk 100 miles to raise money for your favorite charity if Wright plays a full season and has a K% below 10%

  4. Name
    April 1, 2013 at 1:25 am

    Here are my semi-bold predictions.

    1. Byrd is off the team by June.
    2. Niese will finish with more wins than Harvey and Wheeler COMBINED, including Wheeler’s minor league wins.
    3. Mets will use less than 7 starters all year, except for September
    4. A member of the OF makes the all-star team.
    5. Mets will have 2 top-10 Cy young finishers.
    6. Buck stays on the roster the entire season.
    7. Parnell doesn’t record 1 pitch at least 100 mph all season
    8. Atchison becomes the closer at some point in the season.
    9. There will be a benches clearing brawl in a Mets game
    10 Alderson will make a trade for a major league player BEFORE June!

    And my non-Mets prediction.
    Washington will NOT make the postseason due to Johnson’s babying of the SP which will strain the bullpen which won’t be as good as last year.

    Just wanted to get that on record because last year i picked the Marlins to suck and they did, but didn’t have it recordeed anywhere.

  5. Doug Parker
    September 29, 2013 at 9:23 pm

    OK, the Dillon Gee prediction is downright spooky.

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