Anthony Recker wins again, Ike Davis’ walks, Andrew Brown’s PT quest

Anthony ReckerOn Thursday, Anthony Recker made his first start since being recalled from Las Vegas. He went 1-for-2 with a HR and 2 BB and he did a fine job working behind the plate with Carlos Torres. The Mets had a laugher, as they downed the Phillies, 11-3, to earn a split of the four-game series. The win upped the Mets’ record this season with Recker starting behind the plate to 17-11 (.607). In games started by the other two catchers, the Mets are 43-61 (.413).

Are 28 games enough to make any firm conclusions? Over one season, no probably not. But it’s at least enough to make us sit up and take notice and give Recker’s stats another look. He’s still on the Interstate with his AVG (.198) but he has a higher OPS than Ike Davis (.675 vs. .652) even with Davis’ walk-fueled resurgence since his recall from Triple-A.

Recker also has a higher OPS than Buck, who finished his Mets career with a .652 mark. It’s harder to quantify their defensive impacts, as Recker did not get a chance to catch the team’s best pitcher all season. The one hurler they came close to catching an equal amount was Jeremy Hefner. With Buck behind the plate for 303 batters faced, Hefner had an .876 OPS against. Recker was behind the plate for 253 batters faced and Hefner had a .613 OPS against.

Most everyone agrees that they would welcome Buck back as a backup for 2014 if he would accept the position. But outside of a highly visible – perhaps premeditated – display of affection towards Matt Harvey, there’s little concrete evidence to point at which indicates Buck would be better than Recker. No one questions Buck’s mentorship skills. But that’s why we have coaches. At some point, on-field production has to count for something. And Recker has produced enough in 2013 to merit a shot, with the Mets or some other club, for a full season on a major league roster.

A ROLL OF THE DICE – The Mets took a low-risk gamble when they signed Daisuke Matsuzaka to replace the injured Harvey in the rotation. Matsuzaka has pitched better than his 8.68 ERA would indicate but a high strikeout rate only goes so far when you have a 1.821 WHIP. Hopefully, he gets one more start to show something or else they pull the plug on the experiment. Another bad outing would put him among the worst SP in franchise history.

There are two hurlers who pitched exclusively as starters with a minimum of 10 IP in a season who posted a double-digit ERA for the Mets. Jason Vargas – yeah, that one – had a 12.19 ERA in 2007 while Jason Jacome recorded a 10.29 ERA in 2005. Only two other pitchers in club history met these requirements and had an ERA over eight: Jose Lima (9.87) and Dennis Springer (8.74). Matsuzaka currently sits with 9.1 IP and an 8.68 ERA.

DAVIS TURNS WALKS INTO A SACRAMENT – Since his return from the minors, Davis has a 22.6 BB% and has been praised for not swinging at bad pitches. The combination of this other-worldly walk rate and a .348 BABIP has led to an .858 OPS for Davis since his return from Las Vegas. Some consider Davis “cured” of the miseries that overwhelmed him in the first half of the year. However, in his last 10 games, his walk rate has dropped to merely a 14.7 BB% (a rate which would tie for second-best in the majors among qualified hitters) and his OPS sits at .668 in this brief span. Even more alarming is the return of the strikeouts. Davis has nine whiffs in his last 34 PA. Immediately preceding that stretch, Davis needed 62 PA to record nine strikeouts.

RUMORS CIRCULATE THAT WARTHEN WILL RETURN IN ’14 – What do Scott Atchison, Josh Edgin, Jeurys Familia, Harvey, Hefner, Shaun Marcum, Jenrry Mejia. Jonathon Niese, Bobby Parnell and Johan Santana all have in common? All 10 of those pitchers spent time on the disabled list in 2013. Hey, it happens – pitchers get hurt and it’s not fair to blame the pitching coach or the medical staff. While it’s not fair to blame them, it is reasonable to ask what they have planned to reduce the risk in 2014.

BROWN MAKES CASE FOR MORE PLAYING TIME – Six times this month, Andrew Brown has received just 1 PA in a game and he’s 3-for-5 with a double and a walk. He’s not doing too bad when he gets multiple PA, either, as he’s 11-for-33 in those situations with two doubles and two homers. Yet Brown still struggles for playing time, as Terry Collins continues to write Eric Young’s name into the starting lineup.

After a hot start with the Mets, Young’s numbers now bear an uncanny resemblance to his lifetime marks. His New York line of .255/.329/.335 is nearly identical to his lifetime marks of .260/.329/.340 – this is who Young is as a hitter. Young’s presence removes the question of who to bat leadoff for the club but Collins should bite the bullet, give Brown more playing time and find another hitter with an OBP north of .300 to bat from the leadoff spot.

LOVE THOSE LEFTY RELIEVERS! – All season long the Mets have deployed two lefty relievers and with the recent promotion of Robert Carson, Collins now has three lefties at his disposal. Don’t be surprised if another one is added once rosters expand in September. Here’s how the lefty relievers have done here in 2013:

IP – 106
ERA – 4.58
HR – 13
BB – 50
Ks – 74
FIP – 4.94

Collins manages his entire bullpen to maximize the effectiveness of his lefty relievers and they repay him with a 4.58 ERA while their peripherals paint an even bleaker picture. Meanwhile, righty relievers have a 3.62 ERA for the Mets this season.

While Collins does an excellent job of getting his lefty relievers to face as many lefty batters as possible, they still have to face righty batters. And with the exception of Josh Edgin, these lefty relievers have been just dreadful versus RHB. Here’s how they stack up without the platoon advantage:

Scott Rice – .939 OPS
Aaron Laffey – 1.002 OPS
Carson – 1.087 OPS
Pedro Feliciano – 1.800 OPS

The price of carrying these lefty relievers is that every righty batter they face becomes as productive as Carlos Gonzalez, the guy we dream about acquiring for our lineup. The tradeoff isn’t working and hasn’t worked for the Mets the previous two seasons, either. How much longer will this failed policy decision be allowed to continue?

10 comments for “Anthony Recker wins again, Ike Davis’ walks, Andrew Brown’s PT quest

  1. Name
    August 30, 2013 at 12:40 pm

    People have short-term memories so i’ll try to enlighten everyone. Here are the past injuries under Warthen(not including the habitually injured players like Santana and Meija)

    2012:
    Gee(blood clot, non-pitching related)
    Franky frank
    Ramon Ramirez(got injured in celebrating Johan’s no-no)
    Byrdak(abused by TC)
    Pelfrey

    2011:
    Chris Young(let’s face it, this guy can’t stay healthy)
    Jon Niese
    Taylor Bucholz(anxiety, non-pitching related)

    2010:
    Perez
    John Maine
    Sean Green

    2009:(even my memory is getting fuzzy here)
    John Maine
    Perez
    Putz
    Wagner

    No one notices when they do their job and nothing happens, but once something goes wrong everyone wants to point their fingers at Warthen.

    • August 30, 2013 at 12:53 pm

      I thought I made it pretty clear I wasn’t blaming Warthen, since I said, “it’s not fair to blame…” twice in one paragraph.

      Be that as it may, you may want to take your memory in to get serviced. I checked transactions for 2012 and you missed Beato, Batista and Carrasco. While I don’t blame you for blocking them out of your memory, their injuries still count.

      • Name
        August 30, 2013 at 1:26 pm

        You’re right, I did forget those guys and probably forget some other minor guys in the other years as well.

        Even though you wrote a few times that you weren’t blaming them, I still got that impression with your last line when you wrote “what they have planned to reduce the risk in 2014″ which implied to me that you felt they put them at an increased risk this year.

        • August 30, 2013 at 1:39 pm

          Anyone who looks to get better should always look at areas to improve, even ones in which they may not be doing anything wrong.

          Pitchers are going to get hurt – it’s the nature of the beast. But they should be looking at everything to see if there’s any chance they can cut down on the number of injuries. It’s quite possible that they can’t. But I don’t feel comfortable saying we should go on with “business as usual” coming off a year where 10 pitchers hit the DL

          • Name
            August 30, 2013 at 3:14 pm

            Maybe i’m just naïve or just look for the good in people, but I always tend to assume people are doing the best that they can and always looking to do their job better.

            And just like no one expected Lagares to continue his .400+ BABIP or Hefner to continue giving up long balls at the rate he was early in the season, I think natural regression is due next season and we won’t see as many major pitching injuries next season.

  2. eric
    August 30, 2013 at 1:08 pm

    Wow—I enjoy your writing…But I disagree with so many of your conclusions!

    I love rooting for the Anthony Recker “types”… but he has a long MILB record that says he’s a late Bloomer, if an MLB’er at all. Buck is an established major leaguer,,,a guy who playeyed too much and too fatigued this season. Still…he’s a guy who had proven that he’s a pro and a decent bat over several years. Recker will not be on the 40 man this winter……still, I’ll root for him wherever he goes.

    Dice K walked the park when he had great stuff….. now he’s old, out of shape, and “Flirting” with 90mph. He’s Pitched BETTER than his ERA?!!!…wow!?…. I watched those two games and they were the longest weeks of my life!!!— he’s terrible! Define/explain what I missed…amybe I can learn something here.

    • August 30, 2013 at 1:24 pm

      Buck’s main value as a hitter is power. Recker has better ISO and SLG marks this year. Buck has a great reputation as a handler of pitchers. Recker was behind the plate when Hefner pitched like a #2 SP and his results with Niese are better, too. Even if you want to say that Buck is better, how could you watch Recker this year and think he was a liability behind the plate?

      Recker has paid his dues and deserves a shot to be a backup catcher in the majors. This is the first time he’s gotten any playing time in the majors and he’s displayed enough to deserve a lot more.

      Dice K’s FIP is 6.14 and his xFIP is 5.87 — he’s had some poor luck to go along with his poor pitching. Perhaps at this point in his career he really should have a .345 BABIP but the 61.7 strand rate is likely to improve significantly if he pitches more innings.

  3. Hobie
    August 30, 2013 at 1:16 pm

    Now if Recker could make contact like Juan Centeno, we’d have something.

  4. eric
    August 31, 2013 at 4:29 am

    Dice K pitches in Heavy Traffic with NO Stuff…..He’s NOT going to get “Luckier” with more exposure. BABIP is highly dependent on whether the ball is hit in PITCHERS COUNTS or HITTERS COUNTS. When the batter is hitting against a “low stuff” pitcher in a HITTERS COUNT the results will favor the Batter…..and then, there’s THIS question: “Did you actually see Dice K Pitch!!!???”. EYE TEST RESULTS====He’s Horrible!!!!

  5. Metsense
    August 31, 2013 at 7:45 am

    The Mets plan is to pitch Dice-K in the last game in September so that they have a chance of playing October baseball.
    EY Jr is not a starting LF but I like what he brings to the team as bench player and baserunner.
    Recker as a backup and a last chance power bat in a game is not a bad option when compared to the other 15 NL backups.
    Andrew Brown seems to be getting mor playing time and may be an option as a bench OF but how many 4th OFers can a team carry? The Mets are still searching for a #1 and #2.
    The Love of LOOGYS is the best reason that TC and Warthen need to be replaced. The bullpen is not working at peak efficiency because of their decisions.

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