Mets top prospects: Numbers 20-16

This is the seventh installment in our countdown series. If you missed earlier entries, you can see them here:

Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI

#20: Luis Cessa

• Bats: Right
• Throws: Right
• Height: 6’3”
• Weight: 190 Lbs.
• Born: 4/25/92, MX

Scouting – On the plus side he’s still on the younger side, has a mid-90s fastball and three pitches he can throw for strikes.  On the downside he projects as a back-end starter and doesn’t have the shiny peripheral numbers.

History – 2011 and 2012 aren’t that different:

• 2011: 3.19 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, 7.7 K/9
• 2012: 2.49 ERA, 1.065 WHIP, 5.5 K/9

You might worry about the lower K/9 from his year in Brooklyn but with the improved WHIP you can see that he was keeping batters off base and that’s still good.

2013 – It’s rough for Cessa who pitches with Gabriel Ynoa and Steven Matz.  He just gets over-shadowed.  Normally we’d be jazzed with a 3.12 ERA, 1.192 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 and we’d be even more pleased with the relative consistency of his success.  He’s just not got the ceiling that excites people in terms of prospects.

2014 – He will be pitching for Port St. Lucie where I’d expect an ERA in the low 3’s, a WHIP under 1.200 and a K/9 around 7.0…

#19: Luis Mateo

• Bats: Right
• Throws: Right
• Height: 6’3”
• Weight: 185 Lbs.
• Born: 3/22/90, DO

Scouting – This sums it up:

The 22-year-old Mateo had anything but a typical development path, but his size (6-foot-3, 200 pounds) and stuff are promising, with a 91-94 mph fastball that touches a few ticks higher, along with a power slider and an occasional changeup.

History – Here is a recap of how Mateo started his professional career:

Luis Mateo, rhp, Mets: In the international scouting community, Mateo is far from an unknown. The Giants signed him for $625,000 four years ago, but voided his contract when they found bone chips in his elbow. Then in November 2008, the Padres signed him for $300,000, but that deal fell apart due to MLB’s investigation into his background, which eventually revealed that Mateo had falsely shaved two years off his age. After serving a suspension, Mateo finally signed with the Mets last year for $150,000, then went out and dominated the Dominican Summer League.

For 2012 Mateo skipped the rookie leagues (because of age) and was placed into the New York Penn League.  At 22 he was on par with a freshly drafted college senior.  The results were astonishing.  73.1 IP, 57 H, 9 BB, 85 K which equated to a 2.45 ERA, 0.900 WHIP and a 10.4 K/9 in his first taste of state-side baseball.

2013 – The year started well enough.  He pitched well in Spring Training and was jumped to Port St. Lucie where he threw only 8.2 innings before an injury got him called up to AA.  In Port St. Lucie he still looked like the burgeoning star the Mets hoped they had lucked into back in 2010.  In Binghamton, Mateo lasted 3.0 innings before suffering a season ending injury.  The start itself wasn’t good and many Met writers might be dropping Mateo farther down the rankings.

2014 – While Mateo will need to earn this in Spring Training, I would keep him in AA to start 2014.  Had he stayed healthy we might be looking at him in Vegas with an eye towards Citi Field, so don’t think this is TOO aggressive.  The fact that he is 24 says that the Mets can probably be a little more aggressive in promoting Mateo who needs to be healthy in 2014 and show us some of what he did in 2011 and 2012.  Low BB’s, High K’s and a sparkling WHIP.

#18: Jayce Boyd

• Bats: Right
• Throws: Right
• Height: 6’3”
• Weight: 185 Lbs.
• Born: 12/30/90, US

Scouting – It is hard to find info on Boyd prior to his breakout 2013 campaign:

Good player shows excellent power potential, good at ECP and even better at WWBA, not a fast runner but good arm, can play, won HR contest at Under Armour Game.

History – Drafted by the Mets in the 6^th round of the 2012 draft Boyd did not jump out as a player who we’d be seeing in Flushing.  Sure… he had a solid build and a good hitting profile in college, but he lacked that pedigree that you expect in a future MLB star.  2012 didn’t do much to change this opinion either.  Boyd’s .688 OPS in Brooklyn was no more than ho-hum.

2013 – In 65 games for Savannah Boyd changed the tune of all of his doubters.  .361/.441/.494 is a pretty staggering line in a difficult hitting league.  He even walked more times than he struck out.  The knock against Boyd is that his power is not “First Baseman Power” which means he doesn’t look like more than an 15 HR hitter.  He was promoted for 58 games in Port St. Lucie and slowed down slightly.  His BA dropped to .292 which is still good but I’m not sure his power or eye is enough to support him at the major league level, even as a near .300 hitter.

2014 – There is no reason to doubt he’ll begin the year in AA (unless the Mets leave poor Dykstra there… again) and if he can succeed at that level, he’ll appear in the Top 10 prospects for 2015.  In a full season at AA he absolutely NEEDS to hit 15+ home runs.  He also needs to continue to hit higher than .280… no problem, right?

#17: Matthew Bowman

• Bats: Right
• Throws: Right
• Height: 6’0”
• Weight: 165 Lbs.
• Born: 5/31/91, US

Scouting – MLB.com did a lovely article on Bowman:

In addition to a low-90s fastball that hit 95 mph during his pre-Draft workout with the Mets, Bowman features a hard slider, curveball and changeup. He was also a standout shortstop at Princeton, batting .308 this season, with one home run in 33 games — all of which led the Mets to believe he will only improve as a pitcher once he transitions full-time to the mound.

History – The Maryland native was drafted by the Mets in the 13^th round of the 2012 draft and was assigned to Brooklyn where he was forced out of the rotation by the epic 5-Some of Mateo, Ynoa, Lara, Robles and Cessa.  In the bullpen Bowman did well.  29.1 IP, 26 H, 2 BB, 30 K leaving him with crisp numbers in his brief debut.

2013 – Bowman began the year with 5 starts for Savannah.  With Mateo and Robles skipping the SAL, Bowman was afforded a chance to start and ran with it.  He averaged over 6.0 innings per start and a lovely WHIP of 1.043 in his 5 starts.  He earned a promotion ahead of Rainy Lara and Gabriel Ynoa which shows that the Mets had some faith and he proved it was well deserved.  Bowman continued his success in Port St. Lucie with 96.1 innings of work over 16 starts maintaining his average of 6.0 innings per outing.

2014 – I’m torn.  With Fulmer, Mateo, Lara, Tapia and Bowman all on the cusp between AA and A+ it’s hard to say if Bowman would be better off in one level or another.  I could see the Mets starting Bowman in Binghamton or Port St. Lucie but I can also see arguments for starting the other four there as well…  this wouldn’t be a problem if I wasn’t sure that Hansel Robles would be starting in AA regardless.  In the end, it won’t make too much of a difference where Bowman finishes 2014 as long as he ends it in AA or higher.

#16: Robert Whalen

• Bats: Right
• Throws: Right
• Height: 6’2”
• Weight: 200 Lbs.
• Born: 1/31/94, CC

Scouting – Here is a recent report:

Whalen showed a low-90s fastball that touched 94 mph with above-average movement, and the incorporation of a sinker in addition to his four-seam fastball gave him a 2.4-to-1 groundout-to-flyout ratio. He has an advanced ability to throw strikes, and his offspeed stuff played up because of it, allowing him to use it in fastball counts. He throws a changeup, curveball and slider, and the best of the three is a high-70s curveball with three-quarters tilt that is consistently above-average.

History – Drafted by the Mets in the 12^th round of the 2012 draft, Whalen is not your typical Top 20 candidate.  When drafted he had high 80s velocity and an assortment of several serviceable pitches, but was hardly a prospect worth noting.  He pitched one inning in 2012 so there was little to judge.

2013 – You can see that Whalen made some strides moving towards 2013.  For one I’d bet that the training regimen the Mets have put him on has strengthened his arm in the right way.  Afterall, a 1.87 ERA, 0.926 WHIP and a 9.5 K/9, don’t come easily.  Whalen absolutely dominated for Kingsport where he established himself as a potential diamond in the rough.

2014 – There is some good debate of what you do with Whalen.  You could promote him one level to Brooklyn, where he’d be the defacto Ace and still in the right age-group.  You cold alternatively promote him to Savannah.  There is some sense to giving him the innings.  He did manage over 6.0 innings per start so the longer season would not necessarily be too much for him.  I promote him to Brooklyn.  Here’s why: Whalen made leaps after one extended spring training and I’d like another year of instilling those techniques for half a season before he plays long-season ball.