Mets360 projection review: Daniel Murphy

Daniel-MurphyWe are looking back at preseason projections we made and today we examine second baseman Daniel Murphy.  Take a few moments to see the original piece we did. Our group projection was for the following line:

PA – 573

AVG – .301

OBP – .350

SLG – .430

HR – 10

RBI – 67

DRS – (-8)

We came a lot closer to getting Murphy right than we did with Mr. Davis.  Here’s how Murphy actually did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group.

PA – 697

Best – Hangley (676)

Worst – Mcwilliam (510)

AVG – .286

Best – Joura (.285)

Worst – Rogers (.310)

OBP – .319

Best – Parker (.320)

Worst – Stack (.370)

SLG – .415

Best – Mcwilliam (.415)

Worst – Rogan (.440)

HR – 13

Best – Joura (13)

Worst – Koehler (6)

RBIs – 78

Best – Hangley (78)

Worst – Parker (55)

DRS – (-15)

Best – Mcwilliam, Parker – (-12)

Worst – Gray – +11

Murphy finished the year with a .734 OPS and Parker came closest with his projection of a .720 OPS

Our group projection was pretty solid on Murphy, with only our playing time estimate off a significant degree.  In 2012, Murphy played in 156 games and totaled 612 PA, so forecasting a drop from that does not look particularly bad, even in hindsight.

Our projection more than held its own compared to the big boys.  Our estimates on SLG, HR and RBIs were better than the two other systems available at the time we published.  While we were off on playing time, our forecast was in the middle for PA, too.

Given a choice, I’d rather our projections be on the money with AVG/OBP/SLG and miss on playing time than the other way around.  If also given a choice, I’d rather that Murphy pull the ball much more than he did in 2013.  But you can’t always get what you want.  Murphy finished the year with a 3.0 fWAR and his 2013 season has to be viewed as an overall success.  For a first-time projection, it feels like our forecast should be looked at the same way.

8 comments for “Mets360 projection review: Daniel Murphy

  1. Name
    October 2, 2013 at 11:34 am

    I would say the biggest disparity between what we predicted and what happened was Murphy’s plate discipline and walks. The past few years Murphy was average around 5.7% walk rate. This year, it fell all the way down to 4.5%. This was part of his lower OBP. His approach at the plate also seemed to change this year, with a lot more slapping than usual. As Brian pointed out, Murphy is much better when he pulls the ball (and hits it with authority), and that probably resulted in a lower BA than projected.

    His one big surprise was the value he provided on the basepaths though. Next year, teams will probably pay more attention to him and I don’t expect him to steal as many as he did this year.

  2. Jerry Grote
    October 2, 2013 at 12:19 pm

    And the steals were only a part of his speed. He was a maniac on taking an extra base.

    Regarding his BB% … I’m thinking the addition of another power bat will return his BB%. Empirically speaking, its not as if his batting eye got worse. He’s simply trying to put more balls into play to make up for the rest of the lineup.

  3. October 2, 2013 at 12:29 pm

    Yeah, there’s more involved in the baserunning component than just SB. Matt Carpenter had only 3 SB but finished with a 4.1 BsR, the 22nd-best mark in the majors this year.

    As for Murphy, I wish he would look to pull the ball until he got to two strikes. I think he fell into the habit of slapping any outside pitch the other way, just because he could. I wish he would take those pitches early in the count. He would still have plenty of chances to hit the ball the other way when he got to two strikes.

  4. October 2, 2013 at 12:46 pm

    It’s almost like Murphy decided, “Hey! I’m a second baseman now. Better start hitting like one…”

  5. steevy
    October 2, 2013 at 6:18 pm

    Editor’s Note: I would prefer links not be posted. If you must post a link, please be specific about what the link is about and include the full link in case anyone has sites that they choose not to visit for whatever reason. Thanks so much!

    • October 3, 2013 at 1:59 pm

      OK, but I don’t usually link to anything but past articles from here, BB-REF for a specific game, or Metsblog or Amazin Avenue for a specific story. Are any of them on your no-fly list?

      • October 3, 2013 at 2:11 pm

        This is not so much about me but about the audience. Maybe some people don’t want to visit an ESPN link. People should know ahead of time if they’re giving a click to Murray Chass. And no one wants to click on a tinyurl and end up looking at a glamor shot of Madeline Albright.

        • October 3, 2013 at 2:19 pm

          LOL! Gotcha. Just know that if a date or day (“last night,” “2 weeks ago,” etc.) is highlighted in one of my pieces, it will take you to that day’s game recap from BB-REF.

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