Your intrepid columnist has been having a lively Facebook debate over the past couple of days with some True New York Mets fans who are decrying the fact that the Mets could have had Michael Wacha – starting in a do-or-die World Series game 6 for the Cardinals tomorrow night – in the 2012 amateur draft. The Mets passed on Wacha at number 12, opting instead for high school shortstop Gavin Cecchini. Wacha landed in St. Louis at pick number 19. To some among the fan base, the juxtaposition is galling, another opportunity to hide under the black cloud covering Citi Field — or induldge in some good, ol’ fashioned LOLMets. “Woe is us! We always make the wrong choices! See? Michael Wacha is starting in the World Series and Gavin Cecchini hasn’t made it out of low-single-A yet! This was his second year in Brooklyn! Why don’t we have Wacha? I want Wacha!” Sounds like a 3-year-old…
This is really a classic “approach vs. result” type of argument. The approach – according to Mets VP of Player Development & Scouting (and former Dodgers GM) Paul DePodesta — was to “focus on position players at the top of that draft.” It is well-documented that the farm system is top-heavy with pitchers. The hot press is all about Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, Darin Gorski, et al. There is a gaping need for quality position players in the system and the only two pathways to provide them are through the draft and with international signings. Taking the second part first, the Mets have been famously shy in the international market lately, seeing as the latest spate of talented Cuban defectors has commanded salaries and bonuses worthy of an established semi-superstar. Like anything else, it’s ultimately a crap shoot – see Daisuke Matsuzaka for a primer in how these big-buck foreigners can work out. Sandy Alderson, Fred Wilpon and Jeff Wilpon have been unwilling – more would say “unable” – to play that kind of game. So, the only other avenue available is the draft. If the international market is a crap shoot, the draft is an even bigger one, but more cost-effective.
The results, however, have been somewhat less than spectacular. Cecchini has yet to show the skills that deemed him worthy of pick 12, posting an anemic .631 OPS, which includes a pedestrian .318 OBP. To be fair, he’s just now becoming age-appropriate to his minor league classification, so he still could pan out. He could also join the long line of draft busts that litter this franchise’s history like so many spent peanut shells – Steven Chilcott, Shawn Abner, Kirk Presley, Lastings Milledge, Aaron Heilman, Philip Humber and Mike Pelfrey leap immediately to mind.
Results are definitely what matter in this business, of course. Does the team win or lose? That’s ultimate stat, sabermetric or otherwise. Similar to the Mets’ payroll argument from last year – “Hey, you can’t complain about the Wilpons being cheap: they’ve had a top five payroll for ages!” ignoring the fact that most of that payroll is tied up in Jason Bay, Johan Santana, Bobby Bonilla and Bret Saberhagen: paying top-dollar for the wrong guys – the draft argument centers around the quality of picks they’ve made, rather than the overall idea of replenishing the position-player pool in the system. The approach is sound, the results will follow if the picks are smart.
So far, none of us can be sure that they have been.
Follow me on Twitter @CharlieHangley
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This is why you take the best available player. When we traded Beltran, we didn’t demand a position player back in return so why should the draft be different?
Of course, we didn’t come close to taking the best-available position player, either. Instead, there was this need to draft a SS – despite the utter lack of success by all MLB teams in drafting a SS on the first round.
And we didn’t even take the best SS.
I wanted Giolito on Draft Day but knew that was a longshot because of his bonus demands and injury risk. Which brings up another “approach” issue. The last two years the Mets have drafted guys who signed for average or below deals in the first few rounds so they could spend extra money in the later rounds.
I don’t agree with that approach, either.
This team has an abysmal record over its history in drafting hitters. Pick the best player, but skew towards hitters from here on out.
And Free agent hitters won’t come as quickly to Citi because even after the first mistake (Grand Canyon depth fencing) they only moved them in half as much as they should have. Doubly dumb, frankly. A 75 win team with 200 HRs will draw more than a 75 win team with 100 HRs. These fences may well cost Wright the Hall of Fame through lost hits (affecting career average) and HRs. Their players (case in point Jason Bay; and how about Francoer), who play there 81 games, get psyched out, while visiting players don’t have to be there long enough to. So they lose more at home.
Charlie, it is so easy for those fans to now say that.
Wacha is the typical exception to the rule. He never was on the Mets hit list.
Cecchini was impossible to get out last year WHEN HE WAS HEALTHY… that is the key here.
Abner was a bust but they were able to package him in a deal for Kevin McReynolds before it became obvious.Randy Milligan was another,though I rather he succeeded Keith Hernandez at first than Dave Magadan.
I AM looking forward to watching Dominic Smith mature, though…
You can add Geoff Goetz to that list too..remember him?
I find it hard to criticize organizations when it comes to the draft. It is reflective of good scouting though. The late round picks I think is what can warrant a team praise. I can’t really kill a team for a bad first round pick unless its an every year trend. As a Mets fan, I have no opinion either way when it comes to judging their draft history, I suppose that means I have low expectations. Perhaps the amount of time that has to elapse before judging a pick makes it less of a sting when it goes bad.
They should always draft best player available and never for needs… And if they had to choose between 2 equals 1 from college and 1 from high school, right now they should be drafting college players. So we can speed this team up!!! Also this year they should have drafted the kid from Stanford with the 2nd round pick( the guy Mack wanted) and not the pitcher they did get.
They previously drafted a bunch of mediocre, closer-to-being ready college guys, like Eddie Kunz, and did a bad job with that. The theory as I understand it for High School kids being picked is teams in general are more inclined to get older guys who could be useful soon, unless the teams are in early stages of rebuilding or are loaded, but HS guys available at the time of selection have a higher ceiling but coupled with higher risk.
You can never have enough pitching. Isn’t that a baseball idiom? The mets have won World Series with two very average defensive shortstops. Put Wacha in next seasons Met rotation and they don’t miss a beat. Should be like football. Draft the nest player available. Not what your team will need four years down the road. With so many low cost infielders available year in and year out why waste a pick when you can draft a pitcher like Wacha?
The mets draft 0 outfielder in first 40th in 2013
Dominic smith vs hunter renfroe watch
The mets did draft outfielder in their first 40th picks in 2013
But not in 2012. Why ? You still need power to drive
High obp guys. Why the mets donot draft pure power
Guys instead of nimmo or cechinni