Since the beginning of the build up to the 2014 offseason, it was pretty much assumed that Mets GM Sandy Alderson would make some moves. There has also been a lot of discussion of how Alderson is going to go about making these moves. Some say that it’s a good idea to make a huge splash, and bring someone in on a nine-figure deal. Others think that it would be a better idea to acquire multiple little pieces — like the Pirates and Red Sox did — and hope that they provide high value. Moves are going to be made, but the question is whether those moves will really make a difference.
The Mets roster right now looks a lot less valuable than it was in 2013. One thing’s for sure, Marlon Byrd is not coming back because he already signed a two-year, $16 Million deal. Byrd was the Mets’ second-best position player — in 2013 — as he was close to a Four WAR type player with the Mets. Byrd is 36 years old, and even if the Mets did decide to bring him back, it’s unlikely that he repeat the type of season he had last year. However, the Mets still need to find some sort of option on the market that can replace Byrd’s production simply to have the same caliber lineup as they did last year.
The other major problem is that the Mets aren’t going to be getting production from Matt Harvey because, as we all know, Harvey underwent Tommy John surgery to repair a torn Ulnar collateral ligament and won’t be back in an impactful way until 2015. Harvey was big for the Mets last year, putting up a 6.1 WAR in 178 innings before being shut down due to his injury at the end of August. The Mets rotation is pretty good even without Harvey. Jonathon Niese and Dillon Gee have been the definition of ‘solid’ throughout their careers. We can also expect Zack Wheeler to have a bigger impact next season because he’s going to have — barring injury — a full season.
Combining Byrd’s and Harvey’s WAR totals together, Alderson must find players who can add up to 10 WAR to replace them. To put that in perspective, Alderson basically has to find a combination of players who can add up to the total value of Mike Trout. The other big risk is that even if Alderson does make those moves to replace the value of those players, he may not have a significantly better team than he did last year. Maybe they get to .500, but what good is getting over .500 if you can’t make the playoffs?
On the other hand, it’s important to recognize that player performances differ year to year. Some players on the Mets will have a worse season in 2014 than they did in 2013, others will surprise us and have significantly more value in 2014 than in 2013. It’s likely that at least one player on the Mets is going to have an unexpectedly huge season. We just don’t know who that player is.
It’s likely that the Mets are going to be better next year, but we shouldn’t get our hopes up too much. There are only so many moves Alderson can make this offseason, and those moves may not help the team make the playoffs right away. Mets fans could conceivably have to wait until 2015 for things to really come together: Patience is a virtue.
But they also get chances to improve/upgrade on the negative or near 0 WAR of: Ike Davis, Ruben Tejada/Q, Lucas Duda, John Buck, whoever they had in CF before Lagares and EY as well as Marcum, Lyon, Burke.
full year * (TDA + Wheeler) = Byrd + Harvey, or pretty darned close.
I guess that depends on what you consider close. I’ll be pretty happy if the Mets get 6 WAR from TDA and Wheeler.
6? me too.
I think a full season of Harvey and Byrd this year would be awfully close to 7 WAR, and six is close enough.
But the issue is replacing in 2014 what those two delivered in 2013.
I know you prefer fangraphs, but bbref says TDA was net negative -.3; Wheeler was plus 1.1. So together they were virtually a net nothing.
End of the day, this is the argument for simply finding players that don’t subtract from your team. Between Ruben Tejada, Jordany Valdespin and TDA, the Mets used almost 600 plate appearances and probably netted a net negative 2 WAR.
To me, this is simply astounding. We had the roughly equivilant of one full time player that was about the ability of a AA baseball player.
You don’t have to pay a King’s Ransom for league average players. They are available, every day, all the time.
But every team gives playing time to guys who end up with a negative WAR. The Cardinals gave 550 PA to Wigginton, Descalso and Cruz and they had a -1.1 fWAR. They also gave 448 PA to Kozma who posted a 0.0 fWAR.
The goal is to have players that don’t subtract from your team but the reality is you’re going to have these guys because every team has them.
You can definitely improve by not having any sinkholes in the lineup. But at some point you need stars, too.
If a WAR is worth in the marketplace $4.5 M then the Mets should expect to increase their budget $45 M in order to maintain last years production. I realize baseball is not formulas and played by humans but this is just another way to measure if the Mets are realistic with their budget.
Presuming that you cannot increase the WAR internally, sure. And it presumes that money spent in FAcy directly relates to delivered WAR.
Ask the Yankees and the Angels if they’ve been getting $4.5M per WAR from their free agents. The combined total of signing Pujols, Hamilton, CC and Tex is in excess of a HALF BILLION dollars.
And you’d have the Mets signing the two best free agents (actually three) this year. Good luck with that.
But thats it Metsense, the Mets are in ICU, like the hospital ICU. You, me, and everyone else here is strategizing how to make the club better between the lines. The FO and owners are trying to keep the patient from passing away. And that means in the claws of the Wilpons. If you had hundreds of millions of dollars in real debt, and 50M$ just floated into your checking account, you would be hard pressed to invest at a time of dire other consequences. We can speculate that adding every FA available would pack the seats under the it costs money to make money, but thats a strategy that clearly the Wilpons are not taking. The hiring of SA said exactly that: get your money house in order; you have 4 years to stabilize. Largely, thats what weve seen. The product isnt pretty and no one wants to view it, but to continue to mix metaphors, the ship didnt sink. And SA simply does not believe in long spendy commitments having just dug out from some of the worst around. He will also look at Pujols, Hamilton, Fielder, Verlander etc and think there is no way Im in on those kind of deals.
The money is not there Metsense. While most clubs can enjoy the influx of cash, the owners of this team are still financially shaky despite the Mets being the 4th most valuable team in the league. Consequently, we wont figure into big FA signings, or the escalated negotiations and bloated outcomes everyone is expecting:
Choo — 6/125 AAV ~21M$
Ellsbury — 6/125 AAV ~21M$
Peralta — 3/45 AAV 15M$
Thats nearly 60M$ for next year before the arb hearings. I cant see any chance at all even one of these players will be signed.
Of course the Wilpon’s and Sandy are not going to sign three free agents. All for the reasons you state.
My point is that this fix is available and if it puts 5000 more fans a game into the seats at $50 a pop, well there will be over $20 m in ticket revenue alone. Owners with capital would investigate this avenue. The Wilpon’s can’t because they don’t have the capital. I’m just stating another point of view, one that is dismissed by many fans because of the Wilpon’s. I don’t buy the Wilpon double talk. The Wilpon’s need to sell this team.
“The Wilpon’s need to sell this team.” Metsense, 2013.
From one long-time Mets fan to another: RIGHT ON!
I think you may be overestimating the revenue impact of free agency spending. For one, i don’t think it is linear or proportional to spending. In the end, winning (or the perception of winning) and losing is the main factor that drives fans to the ballpark. If Sandy spends $50 million, yet pundits and experts still don’t pick the Mets to be in contention for a playoff spot, fans will not come in the early part of the season.
And attendance after July is mostly dependent on where the team on is in the standings and probably has no correlation to the FA signings over the winter.
Trade: Ike Davis for Matt Joyce; add 2-3 WAR in LF, instead of net zero. Play Duda full time at 1B; get 1-2 WAR instead of net zero.
Trade: Montero + Flores; return (Yunel Escobar/Starlin Castro/et al). Increase SS from net negative, to plus 2 WAR.
Sign: Chris Young, RF; 2 years, $15MM.
Sign: Arroyo, P; 3 years, $45MM.
Internal improvements from TDA and Wheeler. Next?
Bottom line? You don’t have to add $50MM in annual payments. You need to NOT waste 1200 ABs or more on players incapable of playing at the ML level.
That’s most definitely something that needs to be considered. People might not realize just how big the drop off in production we could end up actually seeing at those spots in 2014.
That being said, you also have to consider that Harvey will be back (hopefully) in 2015. The moves they make now have to improve 2014, but they need to be moves that will improve the team beyond that as well.