Other than the outfield and shortstop positions, the bullpen is the Achilles heel of the Mets. This is probably going to be the hardest thing for GM Sandy Alderson to fix this offseason because the trend with relievers is that they tend to be unreliable year to year. Usually they outperform their peripherals — allowing them to earn a lot of money on the market — and then regress to the mean the following year. Mets fans know this all too well, as it happened with Francisco Rodriguez.
Rodriguez wrote himself into history in 2008 when he recorded the most saves in a single season with 62. The following season he signed a three-year, $37 million contract with the Mets. Now, Rodriguez wasn’t particularly bad with the Mets (although in his first year he struggled with 3.71 ERA and 4.01 FIP), but he was just not worth what the Mets were paying him. The cost of a win back then was around $5 million. Rodriguez made about $12.5 million a year, and would had to have compiled roughly 2.5 WAR per-season to be worth what the Mets were paying him. Rodriguez compiled 2.7 WAR over two-and-a-half seasons with the Mets. The Mets ended up paying $13 million for each of Rodriguez’s wins above replacement.
There are plenty of other examples of such contracts being given to relievers. The Phillies gave Jonathan Papelbon a four-year, $50 million contract. Papelbon hasn’t performed badly for the Phillies, but for the amount of value that he provides they’re overpaying him. However, there has been a trend of finding low-cost guys that actually turn out to be good — and sometimes elite — relievers.
Fernando Rodney struggled in 2011 with a ERA/FIP/xFIP line of 4.50/4.71/5.09, which was good for -0.4 WAR. The following season the Rays signed him to a one-year, $1.75 million deal. Rodney was arguably the best closer in the game in 2012 with an incredible ERA/FIP/xFIP line of 0.68/2.13./2.67 and a WAR of 2.3. The Mets had similar success last season with low-cost relievers when they signed 40-year-old LaTroy Hawkins to a one-year, $1 million contract. Hawkins proved to be one of the Mets’ best relievers with a 2.93 ERA in 70 innings.
There doesn’t seem to be a real pattern of how to build a bullpen correctly. A team could sign an all-star reliever for a lot of money and not get good results, or a struggling reliever for close to nothing and end up with the best reliever in the league. The idea that Alderson is probably not going to sign a big name reliever may frustrate Mets fans. He is probably going to try to roll the dice when it comes to acquiring relievers, sign a lot of low-cost struggling relievers, and hope to strike gold with one of them.
I would imagine SA will not invest too heavily on veterans asking for the moon but rather sign a pitcher to a one year deal who is looking for a bigger contract the following season. I can’t even begin to give names who I think the Mets should try simply because from year to year bull pen dynamics constantly change. Go with the best 6 relievers coming out of spring training. Forget the notion that you need to have a lefty specialist. Cross your fingers that Parnell will be ready and can stay healthy.
I have to respectfully disagree with you on the idea of going outside the organization for relievers, here are all the options we have that are going to available on opening day or mid-season:
Bobby Parnell
Vic Black
Jack Leathersich
Josh Edgin
Scott Rice
Jeurys Familia
Jeff Walters
Gonzalez Germen
Scott Atchison
Carlos Torres
and eventually Jeremy Hefner
There are many places that need to be fixed on the roster, and the money should be directed there. While I think there should be some minor league contracts given out, it is not a major problem right now.
I do think that you are correct with the trend of giving relievers big money, which is why the Mets should use their strength in pitching to solve the problem.
I have to agree with Julian. We do have numerous internal bull pen options. In addition to the eleven you mentioned, we also have Gorski, (who may well go in the Rule 5) Kolarek, Bennett, Bradford, Fuller, Cohoon,Mazzoni and Cuan. With that kind of depth, I would be happy to go intto 2014 with a pen of Parnell, Black, Torres, Edgin, Familia, Germen and Rice. Reinforcements are only a 3,000 mile plane trip away. LOL
All that said, Alderson seems committed to bring in one veteran reliever to stabilize the pen. He might bring back Byrdak, who he seems to like, but there are several other options and by tomorrow night, there may be even more.
Scott Downs would be a nice pick-up too!!
You didn’t mention Tapia, who certainly is not ready immediately, but could be if he can discover the strike zone.
The fact is, I believe the Mets chance for success in 2014 would lie in shoring up the defensive side of the game, namely fielding and the bullpen. Everyone would like to add a slugger, sure; but the market for such players is almost bare, and what is available (Granderson, Nelson Cruz, oy) are going to command too much money. Nor are they a strong bet to be better than another year of Ike, and a call-up of Puello.
Way back in the misty past, 1964 to be exact, the Los Angeles Dodgers went 80-82, finishing in what was known as the second division, after years of contention and a couple of World Series victories. They did that poorly despite leading the league in team ERA; Koufax and Drysdale, you know. The Dodgers had the 8th best (or third worst) team offense in a league of 10 teams, besting only the newby Colt 45;s and the Mets in the matter of runs scored.
So what did those Dodgers do? Why, they shored up their starting rotation, trading a bunch of valuable parts, including slugger Frank Howard, to acquire Claude Osteen. It worked; Koufax had another Koufax year, Drysdale won 23, Osteen cleaned up much of the remainder, and the Dodgers won another Championship.
So it can be a way to go, to concentrate of limiting the opposition’s ability to score when the cost of enhancing one’s own run scoring ability it too much. It’s not a fun choice; but I remind myself of how much fun I had watching Jason Bay play for the Mets. Don’t try and push the string, Sandy; pull the string where it can take you.
Cristhian Martinez was just non-tenedered by the Braves. He had a real nice 2011/2012 before injuries plagued him last year. He could be a nice piece at a bargain price, possibly even on a minor league deal.