Mets have excitement at the back of the rotation

On most baseball teams, the fifth spot in a starting pitching rotation is one of the black holes on a roster from which very few fans ever find any excitement. Take the 2013 Mets for example. While Dillon Gee, Jonathon Niese, Jeremy Hefner, Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey manned the first four spots in the rotation for much of 2013 (Niese, Hefner and Harvey all losing starts to injury, Wheeler a mid-season call up), the following pitchers made a combined 35 starts for the club during the season; Shaun Marcum, Carlos Torres, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Aaron Harang, Aaron Laffey and Collin McHugh. Percentage wise, these five players combined to be, in essence, the fifth starter in the rotation as their 35 starts represented 22% of the starts for the season. McHugh, Laffey and Marcum were terrible, while the other three had a mixed bag of strong, average and bad starts. Combined they threw 192.1 innings, with an ERA of 5.01 and a WHIP of 1.39. Basically, one fifth of the time, the Mets were putting out a well below average starting pitcher.

This year, things should be different. To start, Jenrry Mejia looks to be the odds on favorite to leave spring training in that fifth slot in the rotation. His five starts last year reminded Mets fans of the high end prospect we all thought was speeding towards us as late as 2011 (when he was ranked as a top 50 prospect in all of baseball, as per Baseball Prospectus). In 2013, Mejia had a 2.30 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and a ridiculous 6.25:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Yes, it was only five starts, but we all have to remember that Mejia just turned 24 and may have reached this level of success much earlier if not for the Mets indecision regarding whether he was a starting pitcher or a reliever. Mejia does have an injury history, which is, of course, a concern, but his potential combined with what the Mets saw last year, makes him an intriguing option for the upcoming season.

On top of Mejia, we all know about the prospects that are coming our way. In 27 starts last season (11 in double-A and 16 in triple-A), Rafael Montero combined to have a 2.78 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and an excellent 4.28:1 strikeout to walk ration. Those numbers would have looked even better if Montero hadn’t had 16 starts in the Pacific Coast League, yet even in those poor pitching conditions, Montero still threw to a 3.05 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP and a 3.21:1 strikeout to walk ratio. He also kept the ball in the park, allowing only two home runs in his home park of Las Vegas over 47 innings. Montero is good enough that there appears to be an outside chance he could beat Mejia for the job, although with the recent track record of how the Mets promote their high end pitching prospect’s, that is most likely not going to happen. You will see Montero in the majors in 2014 it’s just a matter of when.

Noah Syndergaard was just as impressive, albeit he has not shown it at the triple-A level. Syndergaard had a 3.06 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a 4.75:1 strikeout to walk ratio, splitting his time between single-A and double-A. He is considered one of the top pitching prospects in all of Baseball and has one of the best nicknames already in Thor. He will start in triple-A, but expect his debut sometime during 2014, more than likely after Montero.

Jacob deGrom, another highly viewed prospect, struggled when promoted to double-A and triple-A, but one has to remember that deGrom is late to the pitching world and had injuries that cost him the 2011 season. When you consider that deGrom is still learning how to pitch, it puts his combined numbers from 2013 (4.51 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 2.61:1 strikeout to walk ratio) into a different perspective.

Add to that the likelihood that the Mets will bring in a veteran pitcher to compete in spring training with both Mejia for a spot in the rotation and Torres for a spot in the bullpen (let’s put Freddy Garcia in that slot, as he has experience as a long man and spot starter), then those same 35 or so starts will be manned by a mixture of Mejia, Montero, Syndergaard, Garcia, Torres and possibly deGrom. Those are much more exciting and interesting names than the group mentioned above and should be more productive. Yes most of them have very limited experience in the major leagues, but it isn’t very difficult for pitchers with talent to better last seasons 5.00 ERA out of those 35 last spot of the rotation starts.

So what does all of this mean? When a team has a strong group of pitchers to look at for the back end of the rotation, it usually means success. It’s the same concept as a team having a deep lineup. Where many teams give up at bats in the seven, eight and nine holes in the order, the best teams have long deep lineups. The same goes with pitching. Many teams will try to find a way around that spot in the rotation by skipping it when they can or setting up their bullpens to be ready in case that starter can’t make it past three innings. The good teams steal those games with rotation depth and strength, because they are running out an arm that could compete with top of the rotation starters. It also helps the bullpen immensely to have quality innings at the back end of the rotation, so that they don’t have to waste arm strength and innings on bad games.

So, for one of the first times that I can remember, I will be looking forward to the fifth, 10th, 15th and so on games of the season. They will be exciting for the quality that will start the year with, to the scintillating prospects that will be making their first major league appearances in that slot. Let’s just put it this way. During the 2013 season, the fifth starters in the rotation went seven and 18. With the arms that will be filling those same 35 starts in 2014, would anyone be surprised if the 18 was in the wins column instead?