Last year, I said that the 2013 season should be separated into two halves: Pre-All Star and Post-All Star break. The reason being was that the New York Mets had every intention of slowly promoting some of their Triple-A talent to the major leagues but because of the built-in attendance draw stemming from the All-Star Game being held at Citi Field there was no rush. Zack Wheeler ended up being promoted shortly before the All-Star Game. After the All-Star break and after several key injuries, the Mets eventually promoted Travis d’Arnaud.
This season, I’m suggesting that we take a similar approach, only with the timetable shifted a bit. Instead of the All-Star Game as the benchmark, look at Memorial Day. The club’s schedule in April and May is not particularly favorable. The teams which the Mets will face in chronological order are:
Washington Nationals – three games (home)
Cincinnati Reds – three games (home)
Atlanta Braves – three games (road)
Los Angeles Angels – three games (road)
Arizona Diamondbacks – three games (road)
Atlanta Braves – three games (home)
St. Louis Cardinals – four games (home)
Miami Marlins – three games (home)
Philadelphia Phillies – two games (road)
Colorado Rockies – four games (road)
Miami Marlins – three games (road)
Philadelphia Phillies – three games (home)
New York Yankees – four games (two at home and two on the road)
Washington Nationals – three games (road)
Los Angeles Dodgers – three games (home)
Arizona Diamondbacks – three games (home)
Pittsburgh Pirates – three games (home)
Philadelphia Phillies – three games (road)
Another way to view this would be:
| Team | 2013 |
|---|---|
| Nationals | 86-76 |
| Reds | 90-72 |
| Braves | 96-66 |
| Angels | 78-84 |
| D’backs | 81-81 |
| Cardinals | 97-65 |
| Marlins | 62-100 |
| Phillies | 73-89 |
| Rockies | 74-88 |
| Yankees | 85-77 |
| Dodgers | 92-70 |
These teams had a collective record of 1008-936; and that’s with the Miami Marlins losing almost 40 more games than they won.
The Nationals, the Reds, the Braves, the Cardinals, the Yankees, the Dodgers, and the Pirates are all projected to be competitive this year. The Mets have to make a cross-country trip to play the Angels in mid-April. The Phillies, for the most part, have kept their veteran roster intact and they still have Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels on their pitching staff (and, of course, they also signed Marlon Byrd).
So what does this all portend for the New York Mets? How will they fare during the first third of the 2014 baseball season? Well, they go into the season with the same field management as last year; Terry Collins will still lead the team.
They go into the season with an outfield expected to contribute both offensively and defensively (ok, well we hope Juan Lagares contributes offensively). We will likely go into the season with Ruben Tejada (not Stephen Drew) at shortstop. We go into the season with d’Arnaud looking to establish his presence behind the plate and in the line-up. We go into the season with Matt Harvey out all year as he recovers from TJ surgery. We might go into the season with both Ike Davis and Lucas Duda (not to mention Josh Satin) still looking to resolve the first base dilemma. We go into the season with David Wright looking to stay healthy for the full season…
…And we go into the season with some talented minor league pitchers looking to make contributions at the major league level but not until they first spend a couple of months at Triple-A.
Well, I am expecting 28-28 in that span. Sure beats last year’s 6-23 late April – late May (just before the Yankees) stretch.
This is a new team “kind of ” and we need a you gotta believe guy to get them together. I will be looking for the team spirit of this team,and by Memorial day.. we should know,if they are a team on the same page with one another?
That looks like 56 games by a quick count.
W = 25
L = 31
6 games under .500
Unfortunately, I agree Chris. The reality of 2014 is that the Mets are going into the season with two holes in the offensive lineup. Either Lagares or EY, and Tejada at SS. They have a rookie catcher that needs to establish himself, a first baseman that was demoted to the minors just last year, a free agent signing that is coming off a down year and a second free agent signing that is coming off an injury plagued year. The pitching free agent is 40 years old and is projected to be the most likely to land on the disabled list by many expert sources. There are many things that have to go right for the Mets to improve.
The 2013 Mets had up to 4 holes in their lineup (1b, SS, C, 1 OF spot) and still managed to score a lot of runs.
D’arnaud was terrible in his callup last year, and still managed to put up numbers similar to Buck (without the power)
D’arnaud-.202/.286/.263 with .548 OPS
Buck – .215/.285/.367 with .652 OPS
If Ike is the 1b, he won’t be given any leash this time around. Up until May he posted a .500 OPS. No one thought Duda had a good year last year and still managed to put up .767 OPS. With 3 options, the short leashes, and the ability to platoon, i see lots of improvement here.
Murphy likely won’t provide as much baserunning value this year, but his defense looks like it is improving still and if he learns to pull the ball again, he should be able to top his .733 OPS and hopefully go back closer to the .809 OPS he put up in 2011.
Met SS had the lowest OPS in the NL at .561; nowhere to go but up.
Granderson-i don’t forsee him being as valuable as Byrd last year so this is one spot where they will probably lose value.
Looking at the LF/CF spots together, last year it was mostly manned by EY/Lagares/Duda. This area is the hardest for me to judge because of the complexity. In 2013, Mets LF had a .701 OPS. If CYoung plays there, his career low in OPS is .659 which was last year but before that he had 6 seasons of 700+. In addition, i think CYoung’s defense+baserunning will be similar to the value of EY’s leg minus Duda’s defense. Mets CF had the lowest OPS in the NL at .615, which I think Lagares could put something close to. As word spreads about his defense, teams will run less on him so he won’t provide as much defensive value either. In the end, conservatively i think LF/CF will be a close wash or a slight downgrade in 2014.
Bench production is hard to determine because that is dependent on injuries, but in 2013 it seemed like it was more bad than good. We gave 600 PA to the likes of Baxter, Valdespin, Ankiel, Flores, Kirk, Cowgill, den Dekker who all posted .600 OPS or less in constrast to the ~400 PA to Turner/Brown. I took a quick peek at other team’s benches and saw that most teams gave less than 200 PA to bench guys who posted .600 OPS or less.
Offensively, i see C, 1b, bench as big upgrades, SS as slight upgrade, 2b, LF, CF as washes, and 3b and RF as losses in value from 2013 to 2014.
Harvey to Colon will be a huge drop.
Gee i think will be about the same.
If Niese makes 30 starts, I think we’ll see solid improvement over the stats of Niese/Torres starts in 2013. Same thing can be said for a full year of Wheeler being much better than the stats of Wheeler/Marcum last year.
Hefner + Dice-K made 30 starts to the tune of 4.30ish ERA last year. Conservatively, i think whatever we throw out there in the 5th spot will be to do that, if not best it.
The bullpen is hard to predict because those guys are so fickle and hard to predict and we are relying on a bunch of youngsters last year. Last year combined the bullpen had the 4th worst ERA (and the 3 teams behind us Philly/Cubs/Rockies mostly play in bandboxes). I see big time potential for improvement as we have a bunch of promising youngsters: Edgin, Germen, Black, Familia. For now, i’ll say Wash and no improvement.
Pitching wise, i see 2 SP with big improvements, 1 SP with slight improvement, 1 SP wash and 1 bullpen wash, and 1 dropoff in SP.
I’m not sure what you see Metsense, because i see a lot more upgrades than downgrades. As of right now, it looks like it’s going to a fun year as a Met fan.
A well thought response Name and you already know that I respect your opinion. I also can look at it this way. The free agent signings should add stability to the 2014 team right from the beginning of the season which should improve the record. The 2013 team was unstable until June 18th when Wheeler was promoted and E Young played LF and decimated by injuries of Harvey, Parnell and Wright after August 3rd. The Mets played 6 games above .500 (24-18) between June 18 and August 2nd. These free agent signings should maintain the the Mets at that level or around 84 wins for 2014. This will be an improvement over 2013’s 74 wins.
Yet when I look at the two sides of the coin, I see my first response as the most likely scenario. Six good weeks don’t make up a season. If and when the pitching finally arrives, Harvey-Wheeler-Syndergaard, then I will feel more confident.
Not to mention that a majority of those teams have improved. It’s not just about whether the mets have improved. I think they have, but if I had to guess at standings in NL east zone Memorial Day here’s my call:
1. Nationals
2. Braves 2
3. Mets 5
4. Marlins 8
5. Phillies 9
Another way to look at the two halves perspective this year, I think, is anticipation for what’s to come and hoping it sticks/clicks. Basically, the first half of the year (roughly) is again waiting on some prospects to be promoted and the second year is seeing how it all comes together (at least if it looks like it will eventually come together).
2014 may not end up being the year the Mets contend again, but it is really a very important year.
Posted before I finished my thought.
Anyway, that first piece is similar to last year. However, after this latest iteration of prospects is promoted to the majors, the next flow of top prospects really isn’t just over the horizon for next year. So really it’s very important that the team takes steps forward in 2014 the way it is, since there aren’t likely to be any big name prospects on the horizon in 2015.
Sorry for delayed responses, all. Just got back from the QBC. But I agree with Rob…the next group of contributors called up from the minors really need to make an impact … If they all arrive in a steady stream starting mid-June and contribute, the team will keep reinvigorating itself until the end of the season.
Jim
Excellent prognosis and I thought the follow up from your readers was very astute. I had a buddy in high school, also named Jim, he was a big Met fan. I remember eating Sunny Doodles (The yellow Yankee Doodles), drinking RCA Coke and listening to Bob Murphy with him on Saturday afternoons on our block. Some great Met memories. Jim was also into Faust, Spirit and King Crimson, nothing to do with the Mets, but they gave an interesting backdrop. Keep writing, your articles are great. Still waiting for that Clendenon article.
Jake
I love our pitching; short of being the Cardinals, Nationals, or Dodgers, I think we match up with every team in the National League.
Every team in baseball will be disappointed by some player on their squad, so perhaps we should be looking at this team as deep as any in baseball. There is a playoff team that will be going into the season without one 1B not as good as two that we have (or even, three).
We have three guys that can hit at some level and play 2B; four quality outfielders (without counting the likes of Andrew Brown). Of our two fall back positions at catcher, one was a touch below league average and the other has hit 20 HR in 450 ABs in his major league career.
We can call at least two guys that can back up our star and have shown an ability to hit. We can point to a very, very deep roster of pitchers. And we have the #2 1B prospect, the #1 C prospect, and the #3 RHP prospect around the corner.
None of that depth will come into play by Memorial Day, but it will have an effect by mid-August. I think that pitching gives us an advantage over hitters in the early months and we win 26 of 51.