Of the three big additions for the Mets this offseason, Chris Young is the most controversial one. Some people only see the low batting average and wonder why Sandy Alderson bothered signing him. Some see his history as a solid defensive center fielder and worry that his signing means that Juan Lagares will be on a short lease. Others feel that without an option year included, that the signing made little sense.
To me the signing was a necessary one. The one-year deal at about 15 times the cost of a minimum wage contract was a clear indication from management that the 2014 season had meaning. This was neither a low-cost stopgap option nor building for some mythical point in the future. This was a serious case of focusing on the immediate present with something more than a band aid.
Young got off to a fantastic start in 2012 but was done in by an injured shoulder. In 2013 he twice hit the disabled list and when he came back he got swept up in the mass platooning successfully done by Oakland. But in 2010-11, he put up a combined 8.6 fWAR while playing 312 games.
Is the 4-win player still in there or have injuries derailed what was once a very promising career? A one-year deal seems ideal for both sides to figure out which it is. Young probably took fewer dollars to avoid the option. For the Mets, hopefully he has a monster year while holding the seat warm for Cesar Puello.
So, will it be a win-win proposition? Here’s what we think:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBIs | SB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albanesius | 550 | .250 | .325 | .440 | 19 | 75 | 22 |
| Ferguson | 591 | .230 | .310 | .434 | 22 | 80 | 15 |
| Flattery | 522 | .251 | .347 | .448 | 20 | 57 | 17 |
| Hangley | 452 | .273 | .340 | .465 | 13 | 73 | 27 |
| Joura | 582 | .236 | .320 | .420 | 20 | 68 | 21 |
| Koehler | 450 | .215 | .315 | .415 | 13 | 45 | 12 |
| Kolton | 348 | .279 | .306 | .305 | 10 | 47 | 12 |
| Manners | 540 | .230 | .315 | .400 | 18 | 60 | 12 |
| McCarthy | 567 | .248 | .337 | .458 | 22 | 78 | 21 |
| O’Malley | 565 | .240 | .318 | .420 | 14 | 52 | 11 |
| Rogan | 505 | .235 | .310 | .395 | 15 | 60 | 16 |
| Stack | 504 | .234 | .324 | .437 | 18 | 78 | 12 |
| Walendin | 479 | .223 | .311 | .391 | 16 | 51 | 19 |
Short of a monster defensive season, we’re simply not seeing a 4-win guy. Charlie Hangley is the most optimistic, as he has Young putting up an .805 OPS. But with just 452 PA, he’s either predicting another injury or does not see him as a full-time player. Four of us see him as a 20-HR guy and every one of us thinks he’ll crack double-digits in steals. With the possible exception of Dan Kolton, we all see him producing enough value to be worth his 2014 contract.
Here’s what the group as a whole projects for Young this season:
With good defense and baserunning, something he typically produces, our numbers could end up with Young being worth around 2.3 fWAR, which would be a great value given how much we paid him. So Young delivers numbers to help us in 2014 without blocking one of our top prospects in Puello, who should be ready to step in at RF in 2015.
Here’s our forecast along with what the other projection systems available on FanGraphs predict for Young this year:
| System | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBIs | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets360 | 512 | .236 | .318 | .420 | 17 | 63 | 17 |
| Steamer | 564 | .223 | .310 | .392 | 17 | 66 | 13 |
| Oliver | 600 | .217 | .299 | .384 | 19 | 67 | 13 |
| ZiPS | 461 | .232 | .312 | .418 | 16 | 54 | 13 |
We have the most optimistic forecast but generally all of the systems see essentially the same player. Interestingly, Steamer sees more playing time than us or ZiPS – Oliver gives all position players 600 PA – but has the worst OPS mark of the three. We think he’ll steal more bases than the computer models, perhaps a benefit of knowing the tendencies of manager Terry Collins.
Check back Monday for our next entry in the projection series.
I don’t see him as a full-time player. I think Puello will come up and take some of his ABs…
He doesn’t hit right hander’s well and knowing Terry after a month or so he will platoon with a left handed batter? I figure he will get about 300 at bats and hit 230 with 10 hr’s and
33 rbi’s? He will play some CF but mostly RF and Lagares will be the CF for the most part and have a better year than Young!
Even if he is relegated to platoon duties, this is a great move for the bench. He can enter a game as a pinch-runner in late innings, stay in as a defensive upgrade if they don’t score and has the pop to end it in extra innings. So long as he improves his batting average from last year, I think he’ll be a solid part of 2014.
Considering the cost, it was a risk well worth taking.
If Chris Young repeats his 2013 season of 12 HR 280/379/659 , then he would still be better offensively than Eric Young’s 1 HR, 318/329/647, or Juan Lagares, 4 HR, 281/352/633. Even in his worst season, Chris Young is an upgrade. The question is, whose place in the starting lineup is he taking? Lagares or EY? 7.25M is a small risk for a potential 20 HR outfielder but was that the best place to spend the limited financial resources? Even with the optimistic staff projections, he will still be below his career average. A 2.3 WAR would make this a very cost effective signing.
Chris Young was not necessarily a bad signing, but was Young the right addition for this team?
Why are you concerned that he isn’t? A good defensive outfielder who can run and hit the ball out of the park would seem to be a nice piece for any team.
You are correct in your appraisal of Young but a shortstop would have been the preferred expenditure of the funds ” in an either or situation”. It is easier to find a cheap reclamation outfielder, like Byrd of last year. Shortstops are hard to “get lucky” with as cheap reclamation projects.
I like the move a lot. C Young can be a competent outfielder between his power, speed and fielding. Lets hope that either Puello, Lawley or even DenDecker blossom into what we hope they can be. It will only take one of them.
[…] Next up in our projection review series is Chris Young. Everyone says now that they hated the signing and wanted him gone months before he actually got the axe. Part of the value of doing projections is that they provide a nice snapshot in time, so we can see at least what people on our staff thought in the moment. Here was our official forecast: […]