Tumbling DiceWhen I was a kid, I used to play this baseball game I created. It was pretty simple in theory. It was based off random numbers, dice, and random events. The starting point was how good the batter was. If he was a .310 hitter, he had a better chance at a favorable event than a .240 hitter. I used the actual batting averages from the ’73 team and last year’s averages for the ’14 team. I pulled a random number from 1 to 100; a 31 or less meant a favorable hitting event for a .310 hitter and 32 or higher meant a favorable pitching event. A .240 hitter had to pull a 24 or less for a favorable hitting event. I had four random events charts each with 36 possibilities (because I threw two dice): hitter with power (meaning a homerun hitter) and hitter without power (meaning a “singles” hitter), pitcher with power (meaning a strikeout pitcher) and pitcher without power (meaning a groundball pitcher). Fielding was a factor too since on some random events an error was possible and another roll had to be taken to see if the fielder made the play or not. I still have this.

So, to get to the point, last week in my spare time, I ran a fictitious “Best-of-Seven” series with the projected 2014 New York Mets team facing off against the 1973 post-season version of the Mets. I think the results ended up being fairly realistic. Now, I should note that because this was a seven game series, some players didn’t get used. For instance, I started Noah Syndergaard over Jonathon Niese in the fourth game. Eric Young, Jr. didn’t start any of the games either. Also, Teddy Martinez and Jim Beauchamp didn’t get any playing time.

Game 1 at Shea Stadium:

Dillon Gee vs. Tom Seaver: The ‘14 team got off to a great start when David Murphy walked with one out, and after a strikeout by David Wright, Curtis Granderson hit a two-run homer against Seaver. In the bottom of the first Wayne Garrett led off with a single and Felix Millan hit a double but after Rusty Staub hit a flyball to center, Juan Lagares threw out Garrett attempting to score. In the fourth inning, Staub hit a two-run homerun off of Gee after a lead-off single by Millan to tie the score at 2-2. In the bottom of the fifth, Travis d’Arnaud hit a lead-off triple and after Ruben Tejada grounded out to shortstop, Gee drove d’Arnaud in with a sacrifice fly to centerfield. The ‘73 Mets Mets came right back with a double by Don Hahn, a single by Bud Harrelson, and a sacrifice fly by Seaver. In the bottom of the seventh, Hahn again came through and hit a one-out homerun. Seaver left after giving up a lead off single to Granderson in the ninth inning and Tug McGraw came in to close. He struck out Ike Davis, and induced Lagares to ground out. Then after a single by d’Arnaud, he got Ruben Tejada to strike out to end the game. Overall, in eight innings, Seaver gave up three runs on six hits, striking out six and walking one.

‘73 Mets defeat ‘14 Mets 4-3:

Pitching: Seaver, W (1-0), McGraw, (S, 1)
Gee, L (0-1)

Offense: Homeruns: Staub, Hahn, Granderson
Triples: d’Arnaud, Tejada
Doubles: Millan, Hahn, Staub, d’Arnaud

Game 2 at Shea Stadium:

Zach Wheeler vs. Jerry Koosman: The scoring began in the second inning when Lucas Duda (starting game two in place of Ike Davis) and Ruben Tejada hit back-to-back doubles followed by a run-scoring single by Travis d’Arnaud. After an error by Wayne Garret on a Juan Lagares grounder, Koosman struck out Wheeler, Chris Young, and Daniel Murphy all in a row to end the inning. In the seventh inning, d’Arnaud led off with a homerun and in the eighth inning, Daniel Murphy hit a lead-off homerun. Wheeler held the ‘73 team scoreless until the ninth inning when, after a strike-out by Rusty Staub, he gave up a homerun to Jon Milner. Bobby Parnell came in to relieve and gave up a single to Cleon Jones and a run-scoring double to Jerry Grote. Terry Collins chose to bring in Vic Black who got Don Hahn to fly out to left. Then Bud Harrelson doubled to knock in Grote. With the tying run on second and two out, Collins again went to the bullpen and brought in Rafael Montero to induce pitch-hitter, Willie Mays, into a ground out to shortstop to end the game and give the ‘14 Mets a victory. Overall, in eight and one-third innings, Wheeler gave up one run on three hits, striking out seven and walking two.

‘14 Mets defeat ‘73 Mets 4-3:

Pitching: Wheeler, W (1-0), Montero, (S, 1)
Koosman, L (0-1)

Offense: Homeruns: Murphy, d’Arnaud, Milner
Triples: Hahn
Doubles: Wright, Duda (2), Tejada, Grote, Harrelson

Game 3 at CitiField:

Jon Matlack vs. Bartolo Colon: Willie Mays got a start in center and led off the game with a grounder to shortstop but in the top of the fourth led off with the first hit against Colon and scored on a sacrifice fly by Jon Milner after making it to third on a Felix Millan single. That was the only scoring for most of the game. Eventually, Carlos Torres relieved Colon and pitched a 1-2-3 seventh inning. Rafael Montero pitched a 1-2-3 eighth inning. Vic Black came in to pitch the ninth inning and after getting Staub to fly out to Curtis Granderson, gave up back-to-back homeruns to Jon Milner and Cleon Jones. Then Terry Collins brought in Jeurys Familia and he got Jerry Grote on a strikeout and Wayne Garrett on a grounder to shortstop. In the ninth inning, after pinch-hitter Ike Davis grounded out to shortstop, Chris Young hit a double. Then Daniel Murphy reached on an error by Bud Harrelson, David Wright hit into a fielder’s choice with Murphy being tagged out at second. That put runners on the corners with two out. Curtis Granderson then hit a run-scoring single, sending Wright to second. Yogi Berra then brought in Tug McGraw for the second time in the series and he induced Lucas Duda to ground out to shortstop to end the game. Overall, in eight and one-third innings, Matlack gave up no earned runs on three hits, striking out six and walking one.

‘73 Mets defeat ‘14 Mets 3-1:

Pitching: Matlack, W (1-0), McGraw, (S, 2)
Colon, L (0-1)

Offense: Homeruns: Milner, C. Jones
Doubles: C. Young

Game 4 at CitiField:

George Stone vs. Noah Syndergaard: The first score of the game came when Rusty Staub opened the fourth with his second homerun of the series. The ‘14 team came back in the bottom of the fourth with one out, David Wright and Curtis Granderson hit back-to-back singles and Lucas Duda knocked them both in with a double. Then with one out in the top of the sixth inning, Staub hit his second solo shot of the game to tie up the score. In the bottom of the seventh, Travis d’Arnaud led off with a single and moved into scoring position after Ruben Tejada grounded to shortstop. With one out Juan Lagares hit a run-scoring single. After Syndergaard struck out, Chris Young walked. Berra brought in Harry Parker who got Daniel Murphy to ground out to short. In the top of the eighth, Berra brought in a pinch hitter for Parker, Ken Boswell. Boswell doubled and Terry Collins brought in Carlos Torres. Torres struck out Wayne Garret, got Felix Millan on a grounder to shortstop, and Staub to ground out thereby stranding Boswell at second base. Ray Sadecki pitched the bottom of the eighth and got both both Wright and Granderson to ground out to third. Then Duda doubled, d’Arnaud walked, and Tejada hit a run-scoring single to plate Duda. Tug McGraw was called upon by Yogi Berra; he ended the threat by getting Juan Lagares to hit a pop-up to shortstop. In the top of the ninth, Collins brought in Josh Edgin to pitch to Jon Milner and Edgin struck him out. Then Collins brought in Bobby Parnell who got Cleon Jones to ground out to second and he closed out the game by striking out Don Hahn. Overall, in seven innings, Syndergaard gave up two runs on five hits, striking out three and walking one.

‘14 Mets defeat ‘73 Mets 4-2:

Pitching: Syndergaard, W (1-0), Parnell, (S, 1)
Stone, L (0-1)

Offense: Homeruns: Staub (2)
Doubles: Duda (2), C. Young, Syndergaard, Grote, Boswell

Game 5 at CitiField:

Tom Seaver vs. Dillon Gee: Ed Kranepool got a start in place of Jon Milner. In the third inning, Don Hahn led off with a single. After Bud Harrelson grounded out, Tom Seaver sacrificed Hahn to second. Then Wayne Garrett walked and Felix Millan tripled knocking in both Hahn and Garrett. Then Rusty Staub singled to drive in Millan. Then Cleon Jones hit a two-run homerun. Gee finally got Kranepool to strike out to end the inning. In the top of the fifth, Garrett led off with a double, moved to third on a flyball off the bat of Millan and Staub brought him home with a grounder to deep short. In the bottom of the fifth, after Juan Lagares popped out to shortstop, Gee was replaced by pinch-hitter, Ike Davis who struck out. Chris Young followed up by striking out to end the fifth. The Mets managed only one more threat against Seaver when Daniel Murphy led off the sixth by getting on due to a throwing error on Seaver and a single by David Wright. Seaver got out of the jam by getting Curtis Granderson to line out to short, by striking out Lucas Duda, and getting Travis d’Arnaud to fly out to right field. Overall, Seaver gave up no runs on six hits, striking out seven and walking none.

‘73 Mets defeat ‘14 Mets 6-0:

Pitching: Seaver, W (2-0)
Gee, L (0-2)

Offense: Homeruns: C. Jones
Triples: Millan
Doubles: Garrett, D. Murphy, d’Arnaud

Game 6 at Shea Stadium:

Jerry Koosman vs. Zack Wheeler: Back at Shea Stadium, Chris Young led off the game against Koosman with a double but was stranded at second after strike outs to both Daniel Murphy and David Wright followed by a fly out to center by Curtis Granderson. Willie Mays led off the bottom of the first by reaching first on an error by Murphy. Felix Millan then knocked him in with a double. The ‘73 Mets scored again in the fourth inning when after one out, Jon Milner singled and moved to second on a fielder’s choice off the bat of Cleon Jones. Jerry Grote then knocked him in with a single. The ‘14 Mets finally got on the board in the fifth when d’Arnaud lead off with a double and after moving to third on fly out to center by Ruben Tejada, scored on a grounder to short by Juan Lagares. Vic Black relieved Wheeler in the eighth and retired the ‘73 team in order. In the top of the ninth inning, after one out, David Wright hit a homerun to tie the game off Koosman. Then in the bottom of the ninth, Terry Collins brought in Bobby Parnell. Cleon Jones led off with a single and stole second as Jerry Grote struck out. Then Wayne Garret knocked Jones in with the game winning run on a single. Overall, Koosman gave up two runs on four hits, striking out nine and walking one.

‘73 Mets defeat ‘14 Mets 3-2:

Pitching: Koosman, W (1-0)
Parnell, L (0-1)

Offense: Homeruns: Wright
Doubles: C. Young, d’Arnaud, Millan

So that’s it. The ‘73 Mets defeated the ‘14 Mets in six games. There was some clutch-hitting on both sides; d’Arnaud and Duda looked good. Starting pitching were strengths on both sides; Seaver, might have been named MVP of the series for getting two wins. I know none of this really happened but heck it is a lot better than dwelling on another seven years of current ownership. Talk about a favorable roll of the dice!

2 comments on “Dice Game: 1973 Mets vs. 2014 Mets

  • Steward Pitt

    Ahh, how about just do the simulation via Strat-O-Matic?

  • Patrick Albanesius

    Great job Jim, that was an extremely fun read! If the Mets have to lose to anyone, I’d rather they lose to Tom Seaver.

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