In 2012 Daniel Murphy proved he could play second base without getting killed, which seems like an innocent enough statement now but was far from a sure thing this time two years ago. Last year, he improved his fielding at the position, going from one of the worst defensive second basemen in the majors to one who was merely below-average.
Meanwhile, his hitting remained nearly identical to a season ago, if how he got there was slightly different. Murphy had a .735 OPS in 2012 and followed up with a .733 mark last year. He fell short of 2012’s OBP but he had an ISO 17 points higher, thanks to a doubling of his HR output, which went from six to 13.
One of the things most frustrating about Murphy is that he has such good bat control that he swings at pitches he knows he can hit, whether they are inside the strike zone or not. And that would be okay, if he would hit those pitches with authority. Instead, too many times he’s content to slap the ball to the opposite field.
When Murphy pulls the ball, he’s a different hitter. According to Baseball-Reference, when he pulled the ball last year, Murphy had a .314 ISO. Unfortunately, he only pulled the ball on 19% of his batted balls. Since he’s so good handling the bat, it would be nice if Murphy went up to the plate looking for a pitch to pull until he got to two strikes. That would still give him plenty of opportunities to flick the ball to the opposite field but would hopefully end up with more balls hit with authority to right field.
So, how will he do in 2014? Here’s what we think:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBIs | Pull% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albanesius | 610 | .285 | .329 | .435 | 19 | 80 | 25 |
| Ferguson | 665 | .295 | .340 | .433 | 15 | 80 | 20 |
| Flattery | 613 | .311 | .416 | .486 | 16 | 78 | 25 |
| Groveman | 650 | .290 | .330 | .410 | 10 | 84 | 20 |
| Hangley | 672 | .287 | .321 | .412 | 8 | 75 | 21 |
| Joura | 595 | .285 | .340 | .435 | 16 | 68 | 23 |
| Koehler | 670 | .289 | .320 | .417 | 15 | 85 | 22 |
| Kolton | 468 | .232 | .250 | .368 | 3 | 56 | 13 |
| McCarthy | 668 | .288 | .332 | .425 | 16 | 85 | 25 |
| O’Malley | 648 | .284 | .340 | .415 | 12 | 75 | 21 |
| Rogan | 655 | .290 | .340 | .410 | 7 | 67 | 20 |
| Stack | 680 | .303 | .348 | .434 | 12 | 82 | 21 |
| Walendin | 690 | .290 | .325 | .445 | 15 | 71 | 25 |
Sean Flattery gives the optimistic case for Murphy. He has him pulling the ball 25% of the time, leading to even more power than he showed last year. And with Murphy being able to hit with such authority, pitchers are going to walk him much more than before. It all adds up to a .902 OPS in Sean’s mind. On the other end of things is our noted contrarian, Dan Kolton, who sees Murphy putting up a .618 OPS before mercifully having his season end after 468 PA.
Here’s what the group as a whole projects for Murphy in 2014:
We expect him to maintain his HR production from a year ago and improve in both his OBP and SLG marks. While that may seem optimistic on the surface, it’s still below the numbers he put up in 2011, when Murphy posted an .809 OPS. Perhaps the most interesting thing is our RBI numbers for him. Last year he had a career-high 78 and we forecast him to come within two of matching that number again.
Let’s see how our forecast stacks up against the others available on FanGraphs for Murphy in 2014:
| System | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBIs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets360 | 637 | .289 | .332 | .425 | 13 | 76 |
| Steamer | 576 | .280 | .323 | .408 | 9 | 56 |
| Oliver | 600 | .280 | .319 | .405 | 11 | 64 |
| ZiPS | 576 | .282 | .320 | .403 | 9 | 70 |
It’s not a huge surprise that our forecast is the optimistic one. What perhaps is a bit of a shocker is the near uniformity of the three computer models. Those three have him within eight points of OPS and Steamer and ZiPS have him with the exact same amount of playing time. With back-to-back healthy seasons on his resume – and similar production in those two seasons – the projection models have little doubt over what to expect offensively. Defensively, they expect him to continue his improvement. Overall, Steamer has him with a 2.2 fWAR and Oliver with a 2.4 mark.
Check back Monday for our next entry in the projection series.
Well mr. kolton either sees a major injury for murph or he has never etched him play. I on the other hand belive murph will have just as good a season as last yr if not better say .307/.342/.418 18hrs 82 rbi’s
If Murphy heeds the advice and pulls the ball more before two strikes he could have a career year. This was Felipe Alou’s hitting philosophy during his good years with the Giants and Braves. Murphy, unable to put up Alou’s power numbers but he none the less could be an Alou-lite. I think Murphy can have a career year and I’ll get on board with Sean’s prediction although the staff consensus is the more realistic approach.
That being said:
In 2013 Murphy was the 5th best offensive 2B in the NL. If the Mets decide to trade Murphy to improve at another position then Young/ Flores/Satin should soften the offensive blow at second base. Murphy will be a free agent in 2016 so he should have his most trade value between now and spring of 2015. If Murphy gets traded before the July trade deadline the Mets could get a few high prospects in return. If Murphy is traded this winter it can return major league talent to improve at a weaker position.Right now Murphy should be a non extension candidate because Flores is almost major league ready and Hererra will be waiting in the wings after that. I like Dan Murphy a lot but he is playing a position that the Mets have depth in and he is a valuable trade chip. He will bring back more than Flores in a trade.
Why trade Murphy, any more than trading Wright. Why do you think Flores will be better????
I continue to believe this year will be Murphy’s break out campaign. If Terry Collins would just learn how to rest the guy a day or two here or there, he will put up all-star numbers and contend for the batting title.
It’s never going to happen, but to get Murphy to pull more and slap less, I’d put him in the cleanup spot. Or at least try it in Spring Training. On a related note I would push Grandy down in the lineup to get him to stop thinking about the long ball.
What would (will) Backman do with Murphy?
I see Murph as continuing to improve his defensive play, which may lead to taking more chances, but offensively:
.295 average
40 doubles.
18 Home Runs
80 RBIs
He is getting stronger and may hit 20 HRs.
He is a solid, well liked 2nd basemen.