3D logoRight now we are in the middle of our projection series and my thoughts tend to focus on the categories that we forecast. Specifically, those thoughts center on the durability components of our predictions. For pitchers, that’s innings pitched and for position players those are plate appearances.

Last year our official group projection was for two players (Ike Davis and David Wright) to reach 575 PA and two pitchers (Jonathon Niese and Matt Harvey) to supply 175 IP. My predictions were much more optimistic, with four hitters (Daniel Murphy, Wright, Ruben Tejada and Lucas Duda) to reach the 575-PA threshold and four pitchers (Niese, Harvey, Dillon Gee and Johan Santana) to clear the 175-IP mark.

In reality, the Mets had two pitchers (Gee, Harvey) and one hitter (Murphy) reach these benchmarks.

Looking at all of the players in MLB, there were only 70 pitchers last year to reach 175 IP and 93 hitters to equal or surpass 575 PA. That works out to an average of slightly over two pitchers and three hitters per team. I thought it would be interesting to look at the teams that outperformed in these areas. Here they are, the teams that had at least four pitchers or five hitters to surpass these totals, along with their team wins:

Pitchers
CIN – Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake – 90
DET – Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello – 93

Batters
BAL – Manny Machado, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy, Nate McLouth, Matt Wieters – 85
CIN – Joey Votto, Shin-Soo Choo, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Zack Cozart, Todd Frazier – 90
CLE – Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Nick Swisher, Michael Brantley, Michael Bourn – 92
DET – Prince Fielder, Victor Martinez, Torii Hunter, Miguel Cabrera, Austin Jackson – 93
TBR – Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria, Desmond Jennings, James Loney, Yunel Escobar – 92

It’s hard not to notice that there’s not a bad team in the bunch. Sure, a bit of this is circular – bad players are generally not allowed to get 575 PA or 175 IP. But when assembling the list of the top 100 players in MLB – would Leake, Porcello, Markakis, Cozart, Bourn and others be on there?

Ideally, your stars stay healthy but you need your supporting players to do that, too. And this shows how a team like Cleveland, which is not exactly brimming with superstars, can put up such a healthy win total. By contrast, look at the 2008 Mets. That team had four players put up 686 or more PA and the next closest total was 384. There simply was no reliable supporting cast, which ended up making the difference between a playoff team and an also ran. And the following years when the stars were injured, the bottom fell out completely.

Over the past three years, here’s how the Mets’ starting pitchers averaged in IP:

Bartolo Colon – 169
Dillon Gee – 156.1
Jonathon Niese – 163.2

Of course Zack Wheeler and Jenrry Mejia have yet to pitch that long in the majors. But it shows why a 40-year old was worth a two-year deal. Colon has been just as durable as guys 15 years younger than he. But before you say that neither Gee nor Niese have been the pictures of health, realize that Niese ranks 52nd and Gee 60th in the most IP in the majors the past three years.

The Mets’ path to success is Colon, Gee, Niese and Wheeler all topping the 175-IP mark in 2014. Of course, they’ll need some hitters to join them. Unfortunately the club is not awash in similarly durable players. The hope is that Curtis Granderson, who averaged 657 PA over a seven-year stretch prior to 2013, can bounce back to that level and be joined by Murphy, Wright and perhaps one or two others.

The other day, Dan Kolton talked about the NL East standings for the upcoming season and drew criticism for suggesting that if things broke right that the Mets could win 91 games. But it seems to me that if they get four starters and four hitters to reach our durability benchmarks that number is certainly in play. But we should realize that only two teams in the majors did that in 2013.

15 comments on “Durability and the Mets’ path to 90 wins

  • amazin

    91 wins? Wow that would be something. Maybe if everything breaks right.

  • donobrien

    Very interesting post, as well as a hopeful thought for Met fans. The durability test. Very interesting perspective.

  • Patrick Albanesius

    It’s possible that whoever wins the 1B job stays there the whole year to add a hitter to this club. But that, and with the question marks at other positions, it doesn’t look great for the Mets to have many “durable” guys all year. I’d love to be pleasantly surprised however.

  • Name

    I believe that your restrictions are a little too tight and including AL skews the numbers. I dropped them to 162 IP and 502 PA as those are the minimums to qualify for the stat titles. Looking at your hitters list, 4 of the 5 hitting teams are AL, which is not surprising because of the DH.

    Looking at the last 4 years worth of data.
    Pitchers > 162 IP
    13: 43/15 = 2.86 pitchers/team
    12: 45/16 = 2.81 pitchers/team
    11: 49/16 = 3.06 pitchers/team
    10: 45/16 = 2.81 pitchers/team

    The average was slightly less than 3 pitchers per team.

    Teams with 4+ pitchers of 162+ IP in the NL east
    2013 Nats:93 W
    2012 Nats:98 W
    2010 Mets:79 W
    2010 Phils:97 W
    2011 Marlins:72 W

    Hitters > 502 PA
    2013: 64/15 = 4.26 hitters/team
    2012: 61/16 = 3.81 hitters/team
    2011: 66/16 = 4.13 hitters/team
    2010: 74/16 = 4.63 hitters/team

    The numbers seemed to be all over the place, but the average was around 4.2

    NL east teams with 5+ players of 502+ PA
    2013 Braves:96 W
    2012 Braves:94 W
    2011 Braves:89 W ++
    2010 Braves:91 W ++
    2013 Nats: 86 W
    2012 Nats: 98 W
    2011 Phillies: 102 W
    2010 Phillies: 97 W ++
    2011 Marlins: 72 W ++

    Conclusion:
    There were 5 seasons out of 25 with the pitching requirements. Assuming they are independent (which is not true), there’s around a 20% chance of 4+ 162+ pitchers. Only 60% of those had 90+ wins.
    There were 9 seasons out of 25 with the hitting requirements. There’s a 36% chance of 5+ 502+ hitters. 90% of the teams had 86+ wins.
    Additionally, there were 4 seasons out of 25 with 6+ 502+ (the ones with the ++) which is 16% chance. 75% of the teams had 89+ wins.

    Still assuming these events are independent, the chance of 4+ 162+ pitchers and 5+ 502+ hitters is 7%. In reality, there were 4 seasons out of 25 which is 16%. 3 of those 4 teams had 93+ wins.
    The chance of 4+ 162+ pitchers and 6+ 502+ hitters is 3%. In reality, there were 2 seasons out of 25 which was 8%. Only 1 of those 2 teams were playoff quality.

    These are tiny sample sizes, so i doubt these are true averages. Also, for the purpose of this exercise, I assumed that these events are independent which is clearly not the case. However, it does seem like consistency on the pitching size has some correlation with consistency on the hitting side. It also seems like hitting consistency has bred more winning than hitting consistency in the last few years, but again, tiny sample size.

    My prediction is that the Mets fall short of the pitching requirement and hitting requirement due to uncertainty regarding who will win what starting job.

  • Chris F

    The Mets will not win 90 games. Its an outlandish postulation.

    • Brian Joura

      If you go to Vegas and the over/under for the Mets was 90 wins, you would take the under. Setting the most likely outcome as 90 wins is outlandish.

      But saying they have a path to 90 wins is not outlandish at all.

      I’ll bet you $100 that if the Mets have 4 SP with 175+ IP and 4 hitters with 575+ PA that they will 90 games. Odds are stacked against that happening – it’s not a very likely outcome. But it’s on the table.

      Let’s look at it from the opposite direction. If the 2014 Reds only have 2 SP with 175+ IP and 1 hitter with 575+ PA — how likely do you think they are to win 90 games?

      • Chris F

        Any team has a path to 90 wins. I completely dislike the idea of boiling down an entire ball club and a whole season to 2 metrics, that even under your own comment seems unreal given: “But we should realize that only two teams in the majors did that in 2013.” I would say the Mets will win 90 games if their run differential is +100. But the likelihood of that is fabulously small, and would require 165 more runs than last year. That is a valid path, and it’s likelihood similarly outlandish. Every team that had a +100 RD had 90 or more wins last year.

        Your point is that there is a path. I completely agree there is a path. Every team has the same path based on your numbers. The question is how likely is that path? Based on the last number of years, and the roster which is not that much different, our beloved orange and blue would need to come up with 16 more wins. Possible? Sure. Would I love it? Indeed. About the chance of being hit by lightning? Pretty much.

        I’ll bet you 100$ the Mets do not produce 4 pitchers with 175+ IP and 4 hitters with 575+ PAs.

        • Brian Joura

          Before you read this article, if I told you that the Mets would win 90 games if they had any combination of four SP pitch the whole season and four position players also play a full season — would you have believed me? I wouldn’t have believed it. If you would have believed it — I’m sorry for wasting your time.

          I’ve got to tell you that I knew before you wrote it if the team had a +100 run differential they would win 90.

          And the wager your propose is outlandish.

          • Chris F

            Outlandish?

            “But it seems to me that if they get four starters and four hitters to reach our durability benchmarks that number is certainly in play.” You seem more optimistic than outlandish!

            My point is not about your analysis of IP and PAs, and you are right, I would not have guessed that off the top. I think that is pretty interesting. What caught my attention is the idea that you then used it to defend how the Mets could get to 90 Ws (and take the NL east) in support of the Kolton article, a postulation I found then, as now, outlandish.

            Yes, posting those numbers would reach 90+, as would +100 RD. They are both paths to major success, but neither will occur in 2014. And I’m sure you agree, or you would not have called my wager outlandish!!!!

            • Brian Joura

              In order for a wager to be fair, both sides should have a reasonable chance of winning. Or if that’s not possible, one side should receive odds. Last year, 2 out of 30 teams met the benchmarks, so proposing a wager where the other side has a .067 chance of winning without offering odds is … outlandish.

              As for the Mets specifically:
              Colon threw 190 innings last year
              Gee threw 199
              Niese threw 190.1 in 2012
              Wheeler threw 168.2 innings combined majors/minors last year

              I don’t think it’s outlandish to think they could all surpass 175 in 2014. It’s not likely but not outlandish. Pulling a number out of thin air — maybe 25%?

              As for hitters:
              Granderson exceeded 575 PA in seven of the past eight years
              Wright exceeded 575 in seven of the last nine years
              Murphy exceeded 575 the past two years
              Ike and C. Young have done it

              I think it’s less likely to happen than with the pitchers. Another thin air number — 20%

              Long odds to be sure — I believe it would be 5% for both to happen — but the players exist on the team to make it happen. Wheeler is the only one who hasn’t done it and he missed by a grand total of 6.1 IP.

              It’s a best-case scenario but the risk is health — not either opportunity or talent. If we were counting on Ruben Tejada or Juan Lagares or Jenrry Mejia to hit the benchmarks — then I would consider it outlandish.

  • RAFF

    Iffffffffffffffff? If their shortstop and CF have a .320 OPS. Iffff their 1b position gets “solved” Iffffff? They Have 3 players who hit 25 HR’s or more.. If they have a bullpen… If, If, If….. C’mon….. Are your “If’s” somehow related to the reality of the players you are talking about? If…. If.. If… If Bats fly outta my *ss. This is a 75 win team. The early ‘money” in Vegas “over-under” is homer” “money. The “real-if” is if the young prospects can make an incursion into the major league lineup— Flores, Puello, Syndegard… someone else- a “wildcard”… The Mets are what they are, unless some of the younger prospects show up as “wild-cards”

  • Jim OMalley

    90 wins would be great especially if we get some of those with Backman at the helm.

  • Metsense

    Brian your last three articles with the assist from Name indicate that players who play the full year are rare. The conclusion that I draw is that team depth is very important. All 25 players on the roster need to be quality. The player that fills in needs to be above replacement level and the better he is then the better the team will be because there will be less of a drop off when a starter inevitably goes down. This is why platoon baseball is better. You may not have a star at every position but you will have experienced depth.
    This is not the Mets way. Teflon Terry is anti platoon, in fact he prefers to run a player into the ground.(ie Wright, Murphy, Buck and EY in 2013). Alderson exacerbates the situation by not having depth on the roster as in 2013 with Tejada and no backup. In 2014 he has refused to bring in any other shortstop. Why does he keep repeating the same mistake?

    • Sean Flattery

      TC loves Quintanilla!! I’m sure he asked Sandy for that favor to re-sign him

  • Meticated

    Strength and conditioning coaches, trainers, medical staff et al. have just moved to the center ring in our Metsian circus extravaganza…I vote to add pre-game zen meditation and yoga…seriously though, If I could implement one thing it would be targeted brain training..”anomalous anticipatory activity”, not presentiment, is how neuroscience now defines it…picking up the invisible signals of, for example, your boss coming into your office seconds before his arrival..same applies to the pitchers repertoire; fine tuning this ability could be the future difference maker..Hammerin’ Hank said ” Eighty percent of slugging was guessing what the pitcher will throw, the rest is execution”…he should know!…oh, and bring back Beltran’s eye training device that increased the ability to see the rotation of the spin…da da…chill the bubbly!

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