I
f two weeks is enough time to anything judge in baseball, it’s enough to become anxiety-ridden every time Sandy Alderson or Terry Collins say Ruben Tejada will be the starting shortstop for the 2014 New York Mets.
Routinely sacrificing the present for promises of a better future seems to be a prerequisite for bleeding orange and blue in the post 2006-era, and 2014 looked shaky even before Matt Harvey was shelved. But for Tejada, who evolved from the miraculous replacement for an All-Star caliber shortstop to the Alderson’s red-headed stepchild, the season might as well not even start. He attended an off-season boot camp in January after catching flak for his physique in spring 2013, and it didn’t take until late February for the team to publicly flog him. Sure his .202/.259/.260 slash last season looks generous compared to how lost he is at the plate and in the field right now, but who really enjoys being publicly emasculated? If Tejada can ever get his head screwed back on and pop in some earplugs, there’s no reason he couldn’t become a long-term backup shortstop.
Now for the real reason everyone clicked on the link, my rendition of the Vietnamese national anthem with six-part harmony. No? Would you settle for a scouting report of the four top shortstop candidates instead?
Stephen Drew was the first to come to light. When the Tejada soap opera began in 2014, New York joined Boston, New York and Minnesota in talks with the veteran. Turning down a one year, $14 million qualifying offer at the advice of agent Jerry Maguire Scott Boras backfired as tales of two year, $22 million offers came and went. The latest buzz on the 31-year-old (as of March 16) is that he’s willing to wait until the season begins to avoid costing teams a draft pick and reopen the market again. In the grand scheme of things, Drew is probably the best candidate for the Mets. His slash line after eight years in the big league is a solid .264/.329/.435 to go along with 16 home runs and solid defense. Drew is not an elite shortstop by any measure and his salary is sure to be a bit excessive, but his strong arm, soft hands and ability to go deep in counts would fill that black hole in Flushing.
Perhaps it’s just posturing against Boras, or trying to placate angry fans, but the Mets have also been linked to Mariners’ infielder Nick Franklin. With only 412 plate appearances in one season, Franklin was looking forward towards his first season without the rookie moniker until someone realized there were too many men in the huddle. Ritzy free agent Robinson Cano will handle second base at Safeco for the next decade and fellow youngster Brad Miller profiles as a better defensive shortstop. So what’s a major leaguer to do? He could very well find a home on the Mets with strong offensive potential. Scouts say he could develop into an above-average hitter with double-digit home run and stolen base potential. Unfortunately, his questionable range and arm strength make a career at second base far more likely than shortstop. Defense up the middle will also be a concern when starting pitchersBartolo Colon and Dillon Gee pitch to contact. The other catch with Franklin is acquiring him from Seattle; the Mariners have been rumored to want players from Vic Black to Rafael Montero.
In Bizarro World, Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop Didi Gregorius would be the perfect comparison. Originally signed by the Cincinnati Reds as a free agent in 2007, this Dutchman ended up in Arizona in the Trevor Bauer deal. What makes Gregorius so intriguing a player is his defense. The 24-year-old has a fantastic glove, great range and terrific arm. He may not be Ozzie Smith, but Rey Ordonez should watch his back. Unfortunately, his bat isn’t much better than no. 0’s. During six minor league seasons, Gregorius accumulated a .273/.324/.381 slash line, peaking at 7 home runs and 21 doubles in 2012. That didn’t translate terribly well in his first season in the majors, finishing 2013 with a 252/.332/.373 slash line, 16 doubles and 7 home runs in 404 plate appearances. Sixty-five strikeouts last year wasn’t terrible, but just 37 walks makes up for that. And oddly enough, despite his prowess in the field, Gregorius is just not good at stealing bases. According to published reports, only because I haven’t made friends with Diamondbacks General Manager Kevin Towers yet, Arizona is looking for quite a haul. Rising starKevin Plawecki and a pitcher, possibly Montero, have been the rumored going rate.
Arizona is also asking for that same tidy sum for their second expandable young shortstop. Twenty-two-year-oldChris Owings was drafted by the Diamondbacks in 2009. His first sip of the sweet, sweet coffee that is Major League Baseball came in September after rosters expanded. While not up to Gregorius caliber, Owings is a solid defender at shortstop. He has soft hands and a good arm, which could also translate to a very successful career at second base. He gets to some balls, enough to cut it in the big league. Like a young Luke Skywalker, Owings lacks patience. He struck out 99 times and grounded into 14 double plays last year in Triple-A Reno compared to just 22 walks. Aggressive hitting also pays off for him; scouts think he could turn into a .270 hitter with 25 doubles and 15 home runs. His above-average speed could also translate into double-digit steals. For an offensively-challenged team, Owings is the second best option for Alderson and the Mets behind Drew. He’ll cost more, but having a long-term solution at an essential position could be worth taking out a mortgage.
There is another shortstop that might be available that I think is even better fit than the above mentioned: Luis Sardinas.
• He’s blocked by both Andrus and Profar in Texas.
• He’s an awesome defensive shortstop with speed, high average, low strikeouts, decent OBP… A perfect leadoff hitter.
• The only question is if his bat can make the jump from Double A to the majors as he’s defensively ready.
Asked about the draft-pick forfeiture attached to Drew dissuading teams from bidding, Boras instead told Rieber: “The bigger issue is the credibility of the teams that are deficient. They have known weaknesses. We’re talking about a shortstop that’s in the top eight in baseball, is fourth in OPS, drove in [67] runs last year and is one of the better defenders at his position. When these players are available and clubs that have weaknesses are not pursuing them, a question of the integrity of what the goals of the organization are come to mind. I think the fans have to appraise that because if winning is the goal, certainly these players are major factors in whether or not a club can win or not.”
Well Scott, that sums up this fan’s feelings.
I wrote this in another article but this is how i would respond to Boras:
Food for thought. How many non-catching position players have gotten a multi year deal worth at least 10 million per season, while averaging less than 100 games a season over the past 3 years or less than 400 PA per season?
I found just 1 guy who fit this description, and 2 more that played under 100 games but had more than 400 PA. Hint: 2 of them were former Mets.
That one guy who fit the description? Milton Bradley. Signed a 3/30 with the Cubbies after averaging 94 games and 386 PA the 3 years prior.
The other 2? Our beloved Reyes and Beltran who signed 6/106 and 2/26 respectively. And the only reason that Reyes got so much was because he was 28 and the Marlins had no intention of paying the latter years of that contract.
So that’s 3 guys over the last 9 years who have played as few games as Drew and managed to score a multiyear deal in the 8 figures. Maybe someone should pass this fact along to Boras. Sandy is right to stick with his 1/9.5 offer.
A very valid arguement. If Sandy valued Drew at 1/9.5 then in November he should have pursued a starting shortstop via trade. He may have done and found that the price was too expensive in salary and/or players. He then should have tried to get a major league shortstop via trade/ free agency to backup or compete with Tejada. He didn’t even do that.
Now the Mets go into a 90 win season (Sandy’s words) without depth at a key position. He still has time to pull a rabbit out of the hat to prove me wrong.
Name, as I said, I think you have a valid point but sometimes a players value is driven by the basic case of supply and demand. 2014 above average shortstops fit this mold.
Insofar as you responded elsewhere, I will likewise counter here too!
Not good comps. Bradley never showed any sort of ability to stay on the field. Of the other two, both had been brittle and the closer of the two (in terms of games played) was Beltran. And his was the contract (and length of contract) that worked out best.
The problem you are implying is that Drew has a problem with getting on the field. That’s just not the case; he averaged 150 games for four straight years at SS before a couple of injuries derailed him.
A two year deal is not really destructive to this team. There is some implied risk when signing a free agent and we are hoping to be playing deep into October in 2014 and 2015.
Ruben Tejada is NOT the man to take us there.
I agree, Tejada never lived up to his potential. I guess it’s just not wired in some people to take advantage of opportunities. He is not the future.
“Not good comps”
My main objective was trying to find position players with large demands and had similar health issues to Drew a few years before FA. Health-wise, those guys are good comps for Drew. Keep in mind I only looked at guy who had big contract demands, which i defined as 10 million. There are many more guys who have similar health issues and who signed for less than 10 mil annually.
“The problem you are implying is that Drew has a problem with getting on the field. That’s just not the case…couple of injuries derailed him”
Umm, contradiction much? That’s exactly what i’m implying. I don’t know how you can justify that’s not the case. Guy averaged 100 games over the last 3 years.
From my research, guys who haven’t shown their health in recent years usually don’t get multiyear 10+ million paydays. A multiyear deal worth 9-10 annually isn’t out of the cards though, *barring further research*.
Milton Bradley is most definitely NOT a good comparison here; he never had a series of four
years where he was able to get on the field. At the least, the other three players all showed consistent 150+ healthy patterns.
Reyes, Beltran, and presumably Drew can all say that they had significant stretches (4 seasons or more) where they were very healthy.
The exception here makes the trio like every other longer free agent contract; it does not make a quartet. Essentially, you can be unhealthy at some point in your career, providing that you have shown also the ability to stay on the field.
If you’ve never, ever shown the ability to get on the field, then you are not likely to get a longer contract now.
And re: contradiction, much? No, not a contradiction at all. You are missing the overall context of a career in order to warp the facts to your predetermined conclusion.
So if i didn’t make it clear, i’m finding health comparisons for players like Drew for the period of 3 years prior to Free Agency, not career comparisons. Bradley most certainly fits that bill.
I don’t get how you say i had a predetermined conclusion. I started out with a query and set out to find the answer. According to historical data, guys who are hurt and miss signifcant time prior to 3 years before Free Agency generally do not get multiyear 10+ mil deals, as evidenced by the fact that only 3 players have done so over the last 9 years. Facts are facts.
Again, I’d like to stress that from my research, it seems like the majority of GM’s generally consider health a big factor in contract valuation. Therefore, I have come to the conclusion that it is unlikely that Drew will get a multi year offer worth 10+. It is a conclusion based on the facts that i have gathered, not my opinion.
Whether you think that Drew deserves to be grouped into this group or deserves the same fate as this group is up to your discretion as health is not the only factor in determining contract length and salary.
Not to pile on Metsense, but I’ll second what Grote & Name said, and in a addition>>> What is there about a professional shortstop who is; 1)sitting at home, 2) without a legitimate job offer anywhere close to his desired price, 3)On March 15, which leads you to conclude that Supply & Demand in the market have pushed his price higher?
The Mets are the ones that have the demand (and now the Tigers). Drew is the last remaining quality shortstop on the market(the short supply).Drew had a 3.4 WAR last year. Shortstops with less WAR are paid the following in 2014: Alexi Ramirez 10M, Jimmy Rollins 11M, Eric Aybar 8.5M, Asdrubal Cabrera 10M. In 2015 -2023 Elvis Andrus will be paid 15M a year. That is the cost of a quality major league shortstop. Drew wants some security and 2 to 3 years at around 20 – 33M seems like market value. Sandy doesn’t want to pay market value therefore Tejada is the shortstop. I disagree with Sandy.