The 2013 Mets, for all of their shortcomings, did one thing better than all other teams in baseball: running the bases. For a team without much speed, that’s pretty impressive. Though that ultimate outcome may be a bit of a surprise, Terry Collins has been pretty vocal in his desire to instill aggressiveness on the basepaths during his tenure as the Mets manager. This aggressiveness led to the Mets leading the league last season with 21.4 BsR, the base running component of FanGraph’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) statistic.
That’s pretty remarkable, especially for a team whose only base stealing threat was Eric Young, Jr. In fact, Young, Jr. contributed 9.5 of the team’s total BsR. That was by far the highest total on the team. The second highest? Daniel Murphy with 6.4 BsR. David Wright rounded out the top three with 4.4, and no other Met accumulated more than 2.0 BsR.
BsR is a combination of two statistics: weighted stolen base runs (wSB) and ultimate base running (UBR). wSB is pretty straightforward and accounts for the value of stolen bases (and caught stealing). UBR is a bit more interesting, as it attempts to assign value the other things a player does on the basepaths to help his team win. Those other things include taking the extra base on a base hit, going first to third, and tagging up. For a team with as many deficiencies on the offensive side of the ball as the Mets, every extra bit of advantage they have over an opponent is vital.
Will this trend continue in 2014 and beyond? The aggressiveness, while sometimes leading to outs, has somewhat become part of the budding identity of these Mets. The lack of boppers in the lineup means that the team will depend on pitching, defense, and smart base running to win games.
That means that Young, Jr., Murphy, and Wright will need to continue their aggressiveness. Those three can’t do it alone, however. Wright has put up a similar BsR before, but Murphy and Young, Jr. had by far their best seasons in 2013. It may be unrealistic to expect repeat performances in 2014, but the Mets may have already added players to ensure that they maintain their top BsR status.
Curtis Granderson has had seasons where he posted 6+ BsR, his most recent being in 2011. At 32 years old his best days may be behind him, but remember that being a good baserunner doesn’t necessarily correlate with speed. Murphy is a prime example of that. Granderson is a smart ballplayer and should thrive within the Mets aggressive style.
Chris Young has also had seasons in which he posted 4+ BsR, though these were further back than Granderson’s. Still, the addition of these two dynamic players should help to ensure that the Mets remain at or near the top of the league in getting that extra inch on the basepaths. They’ll need every advantage they can get.
With Billy Hamilton a lock for 60 SBs, and who knows, maybe even more than 70, I think its unlikely the Mets will lead the league. But hopefully still near the top.
This opens up a good question; what leads to more runs, stealing a base, or all the other type of base running that leads to UBR?