Speculation on the PTBNL in the Ike Davis deal

PTBNLOnly minutes before beginning a dreadful game against Atlanta, the Mets had announced that Ike Davis had been traded. The first base situation had been a reoccurring problem ever since Carlos Delgado departed in the beginning of the 2009 season. Davis seemed to be able to take over after a very solid 2010 season and a superb 36 games in 2011. Fast-forward 41 home runs and a .729 OPS, Davis was traded only 30 AB’s into his season. The main concern for Sandy Alderson during the offseason, for trading Davis, was the return that he could get from Davis. The Mets have gotten solid relief prospect Zack Thornton, and the famous “Player to be Named Later.” This type of player can range anywhere from a Ryne Sandberg to a complete washout. From what we’ve heard, this player is supposed to be a more important piece for the future. Lets take a look who could be the mystery player and who will not be.

Notably Not:

Gregory Polanco:

Undisputedly the top prospect within the Pirates organization, he has been on a roll thus far in AAA. There is almost no way that the Pirates would give up their top prospect for Davis.

Jameson Taillon:

While he is down for the entire year, he still holds a high status as a power pitcher that can make a huge impact in the majors. The Mets should not even be considering him due to the excess of young starters already here. This is only pitcher that should even be considered by the Mets, but it remains unlikely he could come here.

Strong Possibilities:

Austin Meadows:

Going into the 2013 draft, my hopes were actually set on the bat of Meadows. In the end, it seems that the Mets still got an incredible deal with the bat of Dominic Smith. That being said, Meadows carries an incredible bat that could make an impact some day. What’s interesting about Meadows is that he doesn’t hold a definite spot in the future outfield with Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, and Polanco all being the locked up in Pittsburgh. It seems a little unlikely for the Pirates to trade an excellent talent like this so early, but worth an eye on.

Alen Hanson:

Hanson is actually the best-case scenario for the PTBNL. This is because he remains a solid hitter with above speed- not to mention he plays shortstop. All signs point to him being a great defender with a .280 bat. Most fans should be thrilled if he falls into the lap of the Mets. The best part of this deal is that he could make the major league roster this season if his bat fully develops.

24th pick in the 2014 draft:

The most likely situation, and probably the best, is that the Mets decide who their return is through the draft. This is not commonly practiced in the big leagues, but still remains a possibility.

The player to be named later can be anyone in the Pirates organization and at this point, Alderson and Co. has around six months to figure out who it is. The Mets need to stay clear of choosing another high-risk high reward flamethrower, and find more bats to compliment the weak offense.

10 comments for “Speculation on the PTBNL in the Ike Davis deal

  1. April 22, 2014 at 7:57 pm

    There’s not a chance in the world that the Mets are getting the Pirates’ first-round pick in 2014. And it’s equally likely they get their 2013 first-round pick.

  2. George
    April 22, 2014 at 8:13 pm

    It was somewhere that when Bucs called up Polanco Tabata would go to the Mets.

  3. Stephen
    April 22, 2014 at 8:41 pm

    It’s not going to be any of those guys. Nor can it be the Pirates’ first pick in the 2014 draft. Draftees have to be with their team one year. That’s why it’s likely that the PTBNL in this trade is actually a ’13* draftee. I don’t see it being any of the guys you mention and it is certainly not Meadows, Polanco, or Taillon…all who are top 50 prospects in the game right now.

    The most likely players are RHP Neil Kozikowski, OF JaCoby Jones, LHP Blake Taylor, or LHP Cody Dickson. My best bet is Kozikowski because Harper tweeted that he’s likely the player although I’d love to add Jones or Taylor.

  4. Name
    April 22, 2014 at 8:45 pm

    It can’t be the 2014 draft pick. That would mean they can’t get the player until June of 2015. There’s no way a GM would wait that long and I think all PTBNL’s have to be resolved at the end of the year.

    • Name
      April 23, 2014 at 11:48 am

      I did a quick Google search and found some conditions to the PTBNL. However, these articles were written before the new CBA so it may have changed.

      1. The player must be named within 6 months. Thus it is against the rules for the Mets to get the Pirates 2014 draft picks.
      2. The player may not be an active minor leaguer during the time and the player must change leagues. Which means any prospect that the Pirates call up will not be piece and any current major leaguer cannot be traded either.

      • Captain America
        April 23, 2014 at 11:26 pm

        Cannot be an Active major leaguer

        Editor’s Note – Please do not capitalize words as that’s a violation of our Comment Policy.

  5. meticated
    April 22, 2014 at 9:59 pm

    Is it even conceivable that the Mets and Pirates made a deal conditional to the results produced by Davis this season…is that possible by league rules…it would be ironic if we found ourselves competing with the Pirates and somehow pulling for Davis to defeat us…my hope is that it’s Jones or their catcher prospect…not Tabata. ..he’s not going to amount to anything worthwhile. My feeling on Davis is mixed. .he’s a flawed hitter who can be exploited by clever pitching and he seems reluctant to start over with his mechanics. ..but having said that, stranger things have happened than weird swings achieving good if not great results..plus he appears to be a good man and deserves to be happy and successful. ..so maybe we do get Meadows ehhhh?

    • Patrick Albanesius
      April 23, 2014 at 10:52 am

      I had the same “conditional” thought. I think I’ve heard that happening before, but I could be 100% wrong on that. If that is actually the case, it might work out best for everyone involved to say, We’ll give you a 2013 draftee, but we’ll see who based on how Davis performs. Again, not sure if that’s even allowed, but based on that Meadows is a shot. Even if just a remote one. I’m thinking Taylor is the most likely candidate. Sandy loves those arms.

  6. Jerry Grote
    April 23, 2014 at 12:11 pm

    Thanks Julian.

    Why are we always in a position for taking another teams magic beans and while giving away WAR?

  7. Captain America
    April 23, 2014 at 6:56 pm

    This is embarrassing as the rules are defined and do not allow same year draft picks to be traded.

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