YodaThe Mets’ bullpen seems to be in a constant state of flux so far in 2014. The heralded closer Bobby Parnell was supposed to be fully recovered from neck surgery, only to blow out his elbow in his first appearance of the year and be sidelined with Tommy John surgery. Jose Valverde stepped up, and then quickly fell down. Kyle Farnsworth is now the closer, but at 38 years old he’s no longer the kind of player who can pitch three days in a row without possibly severe consequences. Even Daisuke Matsuzaka recorded his first career save with the Mets recently, as the hodge-podge relief corp. continues to work, if just barely.

That is why Jeurys Familia and Vic Black are so important to the future success of this bullpen. Both Familia and Black can average their fastballs around 96 mph. Black offers a slider and a curveball as well, while Familia can additionally incorporate a sinker and changeup. It’s no wonder these guys have shown so much promise over the past few seasons, and why many are calling for them to have larger roles in the current Mets bullpen.

Despite all that promise, though, neither player is living up to their potential. Familia now has six walks to go along with four strikeouts. Those are not positive numbers coming from a guy who can blow the ball past most hitters. He has been throwing his sinker nearly a quarter of the time, which is a great idea when you can get the heater up to high 90s. But if neither pitch is locating, all you are doing is giving guys a great look at your repertoire as it lands outside the strike zone for ball four. Meanwhile, the fastball that was once a vital tool is now being used less than 60% of the time, and isn’t setting up the breaking pitch with enough frequency or effectiveness.

Black’s minor league pitch frequencies aren’t recorded through FanGraphs, but we do know that he has an abysmal 0.9 K/BB ratio, thanks to nine strikeouts and ten walks. Black added two more walks last night in an inning of work. He hasn’t given up an earned run so far in Triple-A despite these numbers thanks largely to a ridiculous 92.3 LOB%, which is unrealistic to maintain. Eventually Black will not be able to K his way through the walks, and he will start to suffer greatly.

The same issue seem to be plaguing Black and Familia. Lack of control and/or infrequency of the fastball aren’t setting up the breaking pitches. Familia’s current .314 BABIP is just above average, so nobody is getting extremely lucky hits off of him. Meanwhile Black’s .200 BABIP will almost definitely increase, and when it does those walks are going to make his ERA balloon. Both are professionals so they know that even mediocre hitters can catch up to a fastball if that’s the only pitch being used. To Familia’s credit, he’s trying to use his other pitches. However, not being able to get those pitches over for strikes kills the effectiveness of every other pitch he throws. That’s why control problems can be so devastating, they quickly snowball.

These issues are so obvious that it is without a doubt the pitching coaches are working on these problems as we speak, and that’s good. The Mets have been winning by the seat of their pants lately, and while fans will take those wins however they can get them, it would be nice to have the bullpen be less of a question the deeper the season goes on. Familia and Black not only have the potential to fix that problem, but either has the ability to close sometime in the near future. But potential only gets you so far. Eventually all that hope and promise will need to become a reality.

As Yoda suggested, “Control. Control. You must learn control.”

5 comments on “Jeurys Familia and Vic Black have to learn control

  • Name

    Someone should tell TC Familia exists in that pen. He went almost a week without being used, even though there were plenty of opportunities even if he didn’t trust him, while guys like Germen were pitching 2 games following a 42 pitch outing.
    The future success to the bullpen is cutting the ax with TC of course.

  • Metsense

    So, are you saying that Black has to come over from the Darkside?
    The bullpen is a mess and it is TC’s weakest point as manager. Right now, this week, Germen, Farnsworth and Torres should be protecting the save/hold situations. The use of Rice as only a LOOGY is stressing out the pen.(ie Rice gets the first two lefties out the other day and TC brings in another pitcher to finish the inning). That leaves Dice K, Familia and Valverde to pitch when you have 4-0 lead. TC manages the bullpen increduously. I realize this group appears to be inadequate, and the roles will keep fluctuating because of this, but TC is not helping the matter. If he could’t trust Valverde with a 4 run lead on Sunday then maybe Black should be promoted and Valverde jettisoned.

    • Brian Joura

      I dunno – I like the idea of my relief pitchers using the dark side of the force to get batters out.

  • tommyb

    What about Joel Carreno? This year and last, very high Ks, very low hits, walks decent, ERA strong. A few years back, even had some major league experience (pretty bad, but so were his min league #s that year.

    I wished then, and I wish now, that they re-signed Hawkins.

  • Sean Flattery

    Who would’ve thought Dice-K would be there current template for control and consistency in relief?

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