The All-Star break is upon us and the Mets finished the first half of the season strong with a sweep of the Miami Marlins to complete an eight and two home stand. The team is squarely in third place in the NL East, sitting seven games behind a first place tie between the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves. They also sit about that far out of the two wild card spots, at which there is currently a log jam of teams (Cardinals, Reds, Pirates and Giants and whomever doesn’t win their divisions).
All of that puts the Mets in an odd position. They are not in an unmanageable hole to climb out of. However, with all of those teams involved in the race, it’s statistically doubtful that they could make the playoffs. With the trade deadline coming, what should the Mets do?
Bartolo Colon was an excellent signing this past offseason, but he’s 41 years old and not a part of this teams’ long term future. Pitching is a prime need of several teams that are in races throughout Major League Baseball and prime targets like David Price, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee are going to cost dearly in terms of prospects. That leaves Colon as the next best thing and reportedly the Mets have been getting calls about the right-hander. This is where the question of what the Mets should do comes into play. Colon should be traded. It makes too much sense, especially in this years’ trade market. But what should the Mets ask in return for him?
There are two trains of thought. The Mets are not out of it and they need another bat in the lineup. Colon could be traded for that bat. The Mets are also probably in a position where they will most likely not be a playoff team. So in that case, they should still be in the process of collecting young talent. With those two thoughts in mind, here are two trades the Mets could explore for Colon.
Colon to the Orioles for Nick Markakis
Markakis has been a fairly common player brought up in connection with the Mets for several seasons. Markakis is having a bit of a return to form season. After having a tremendous season cut off by injuries in 2012, Markakis struggled in 2013, posting a 685 OPS and hitting only 34 extra base hits out of the total of 172 he produced for the year. This year he’s on pace to hit 30 plus doubles and around 15 home runs, production the Orioles haven’t seen in Markakis since 2011 and the injury shortened 2012 season. Although Markakis doesn’t bring elite power, he brings a quality bat. Markakis boasts a career .292 batting average and 797 OPS, numbers that he isn’t far off from this season (.288 average and 746 OPS). His contract isn’t good as he’s making 15 million this year, with a 17.5 million dollar team option for next year, but his bat and defensive ability (he’s always been known as a solid defender boasting a cannon of an arm), make him intriguing in a deal for the 41 year old Colon.
This would definitely be a deal the Mets would make if they feel they are in the race. The Orioles seriously need pitching and the addition of Colon could bolster their staff enough to hold onto a weak AL East division this year. The Mets could slot Markakis behind David Wright or move Wright to the clean-up spot and hit Markakis third. Markakis could play every day as well. Markakis has always hit lefties, boasting a career .289 batting average and 747 OPS against them, similar numbers to this year (.292 AVG and 698 OPS). He’s also been solid this year with runners in scoring position, batting .267 with a 745 OPS in those situations. Markakis isn’t the perfect player as he doesn’t really help the Mets need for power and has a bad contract, but he is an upgrade and would make the Mets second half that much more interesting.
Colon and Lucas Duda to the Angels for CJ Cron and a few other prospects
The Angels are also in a race in the American League, but they are all but guaranteed a playoff spot this year as one of the wild card teams. Of course they’d rather not have to be a part of that play in game and the one place they can definitely improve is in their pitching staff. The Angels have become very reliant on young pitching this year in their rotation in Garrett Richards, Tyler Skaggs, Hector Santiago and Matt Shoemaker. Shoemaker and Skaggs are experiencing their first extensive amount of major league experience, Richards is a converted reliever and Santiago is only in his second season as a regular member of a rotation. Colon would provide some nice veteran stability to support ace Jared Weaver and currently injured CJ Wilson.
Cron would be the obvious player for the Mets to target. The young first baseman has tons of power and is an everyday player in his first season. He’s blocked long term by Albert Pujols in the lineup and is currently serving as the teams’ designated hitter and sometime first baseman to give Pujols a break in the field time after time. To get Cron the Mets would have to give up more than Colon, which is where Duda comes in. Duda is perfect for the Angels. The Angels signed Raul Ibanez to supply left handed punch to the lineup from primarily the designated hitter position. Ibanez was terrible and subsequently released. Duda could provide that left handed pop in the order while also giving Pujols rest from time to time. He would also be a nice left handed power bat off of the bench, which the Angels do not have.
This deal wouldn’t be as much about his year as next year. Although Cron would surely provide some nice power in the middle of the order for the Mets, he and whatever other prospects the Mets would acquire, would be more about another building block for next year. Cron would slot in as the teams everyday first baseman until Dominic Smith is hopefully available in a few years. He would probably provide 25 plus home run power at a severe discount for the next several years and be an attractive trade commodity if Smith is bulldozing his way through the Mets farm system. The trade wouldn’t handle the Mets need in the outfield, but could allow them to use a decent platoon of Eric Campbell, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Eric Young Jr. in left field (or Chris Young if he isn’t released). There are some options that the Mets might be able to get on a short term deal for the outfield this offseason (Alex Rios comes to mind as he is 33), with the hope that someone like Brandon Nimmo, Dustin Lawley or Cesar Puello could be ready as soon as sometime in 2015 or at the latest 2016.
Of the two, if they could pull off a Cron deal, that would be the way to go. Although it wouldn’t change a whole lot this year, it could be a great move for next year while actually cutting off salary dollars, hopefully leaving the Mets more flexibility to add at either both shortstop and the outfield in the offseason or one or the other. It would also show the fan that the front office is about building a team and not about selling off our best players for someone the Mets won’t see for several more.
I’m hoping the front office can do better. I wouldn’t have much interest in either of these deals if I were the Mets.
Who are the Orioles playing in RF after we get Nick? (Why do we trade 1.5 years of Colon for three months of Markakis?)
Colon/Duda for CJ – there’s just no way the Mets give up on Duda now, and once you’ve committed to *not trading* Duda, picking up CJ isn’t relevant.
There are several corner OFers out there, but they don’t match up with Colon well – unless you can get creative with the LAD.
I think he was suggesting 2 trades based on the two trains of thought: one if the Mets think they are contenders, which would be for Markakis, and one of the Mets think they’re not, which is for Cron.
I also don’t see the first place Orioles trading their 3rd/4th best hitter this year for Colon. Seems like they need more of an ace rather than an innings-eater and any deal with them would likely be for prospects since they are in first place.
Without naming specific “Angels prospects”, it’s hard to judge that deal. However, looking at some Angels top prospects list, i don’t see much that fills NY needs. Most of their top 10 is pitchers,3b, and 2b. They have a SS in their top 10 named Jose Rondon, but he’s just starting A+ this year so he’s only a tiny tick ahead of Cecchini. They also have a glove first guy who is in AAA called Eric Stamets. I also fail to see any useful OF prospects, their best guys are also just starting full-season leagues.
Also, if the ultimate goal is to get Smith at 1b, then Duda is a better placeholder in my mind as his contract runs out about the same time Smith should be ready and even the most pessimistic on Duda have to be encouraged by what they’ve seen this year
I agree.
Deal #1 doesn’t make sense for either team. Orioles don’t have a replacement for Markakis and Mets don’t want to make this deal unless we get him to sign a favorable two year deal, unlikely given the year’s he’s having
Deal#2 – Granted CJ Cron is younger than Duda at 24 and therefore you can argue has more potential “upside” but looking at his minor and Major league numbers, he’s doesn’t seem to be any better? More consistent power (higher slugging) but with a lower OBP but the biggest things are he’s unproven at all in the biggs (duda is not ) and we give up colon, too?
Stimulating ideas but neither one works for me….
I love the Markakis deal alot.He fits perfect for what we need.Plus he fits the team good defense we like.It’s time to make the outfield productive from all three positions.The Orioles might be more incline to do this to save money.
So let me get this straight, you would trade Colon and Duda for Cron and prospects because Cron can give you 25 hrs power.
Have you noticed by any chance that Duda has 14 hrs already? I would expect that he also is going to hit at least 25 hrs, so why make this trade if both Duda and Cron are just holding the position for Smith?
Markakis? no thanks. What the Mets need is a shortstop prospect that can either play this year in the ML or next year. A leftfielder can come from in-house or via trade.
In reality, the Mets should trade both Colon and Murphy for the best prospects the can get. Then use some of those prospects to get a power LF/RF bat. Then use Flores at 2B and Reynolds at SS along with the bat coming in via trade.
The Colon Duda deal would involve other prospects coming back with Cron. It’s a deal that helps the Mets in the future as opposed to the present. A shortstop isn’t coming for Colon. I don’t want to deal Duda, but a player like Markakis is probably the best outfield bat they could get for Colon. Alex Rios is available, but that’s a rental for prospects, same as Seth Smith. Dayan Viciedo is also on the market and has a long term contract, but he’s again a prospect deal, which the Mets don’t appear willing to make.
Colon has the most value now. He’s pitched well, has a decent contract and won’t cost test what Lee, Hammels or Price will cost. The Mets need an outfielder with power, but that guy isn’t out there. The Phillies might trade Byrd to the AL, Cargo is reportedly off the market and the Dodgers have said they won’t trade Kemp, Ethier or Joc Pederson.
On top of that, there are limited OF free agents this winter. Rios is probably the only one who could sign a short term deal. Cruz isn’t after the year he’s having.
So, unless you want to try to sign Soriano now that he’s been released, these are two decent options.
If not, the Mets could stand pat, but that hurts Colons’ value or he could be traded for non-major league prospects we won’t see for several years, if ever.
If we’re talking about free agent OFs
Aoki, Melky Cabrera, Cuddyer, Denorfia, Schierholtz, Willingham, Rasmus are some of the more interesting names.
No game changing options, but guy who interests me the most is Rasmus. Only 27 right now and should be entering his prime years and if he can be had for a 3-4 year deal at 10-12 per year, i’d do it.
Guy who i think would provide best bang for buck is Denorfia. Doesn’t excel at any particular skill, but solid 4th outfielder. He he’s having a down year and i think would cost less than 3-4 million on 1 year.
Rasmus has a ton of talent but he also comes with some baggage. Cardinals sent him out of town because they were tired of dealing with him. If I remember right, he didn’t want to listen to the coaches and instead wanted his dad as his batting coach. Plus I don’t think the Mets will be looking to hand out that big of a contract next year to a FA.
All of the other names are interesting. I’m with you on Denorfia – I suggested a Flores-Denorfia deal last year and was laughed at by some.
Rasmus also can’t hit lefties, so he’s nothing more than a platoon player. The free agent market is much better at short than the outfield
Actually, i think the SS free agent market is much worse.
The 4 big players are going to be Drew, Hardy, Lowrie, and Cabrera. All are about the same offensively OPS-wise, with Hardy probably being the best. Cabrera is the only under 30 and Lowrie/Drew can’t be relied on to stay on the field.
At this point, it’s hard for me to put prices on these guys because it’s hard to forecast demand this far in advance of FA, but seeing as how a few of those teams have replacements ready (Indians, Red Sox, and Orioles), there may not be many starting jobs for everyone and we may be able to get one for less than 2 years and $15 million.
Don’t like Markakis, who shows good patience at the plate, but less impressive power. His SLG is only .395 this year and he’s got an OPS+ that’s barely above average at 109. I’d rather just stick Kirk out there most of the time until we can get a big bopper for LF.
Great comments. You are all correct about not enough return for the outlay. That seems to be the same thinking as Alderson. I do like the thought about bringing up Reynolds for short. At that time a trade of Abreu might get something, and then the roster is more balanced Just a thought……
Don’t think Abreu would get us much.
Collins would just let Reynolds whither on the bench, as he did Flores.
Three months of Markakis for a playoff run? I am optimistic, but realistic, and would pass on that deal.
Cron for Duda ? Why go there. Colon for Angel prospects, I don’t see a match if the Mets are targeting a SS or LF.
As a fan, I would not be disappointed if Colon reaped only prospects. It was what I have expected all along.
Anyone who thinks Baltimore would trade Nick Markakis for 41 year old Colon must be on drugs.
Why not a package for Aybar? You know the two teams have discussed this in some way or another last winter.
Give to get: A young SS, a starting veteran pitcher, a pitcher that can finish their bullpen or start, a veteran LH bat, another AA/AAA player.
Flores (or Tejada) (or both – but in which case they don’t get the TT or Dykstra)
Colon
Torres
Abreu
Travis Taijeron or Dykstra
Flores and/or Tejada as the starting shortstop on a playoff-bound Angels team? I don’t think they’ll bite, at least, not if the prize is Colon.
They also likely don’t value Torres highly like Met fans do.
All great comments. Alex Rios was the only name that jumps out as possibly easy to get, but Texas would want some prospect back, and SA seems reluctant to do a deal like that, especially for a possible rental. He adds speed and average, but not much in power or OBP this year. Baltimore could use Colon, and we could ask for Hunter Harvey (only 19 though), or Steve Pearce who can play LF and has power. Likely the O’s would want something in addition to Colon for Pearce, but it can be done.
Using the Baseball Cube compare player tool, it becomes obvious how much of a fool Terry Collins is. As much as Captain K disappeared in the second half of 2013, he’s again showing the potential to be a solid power left fielder.
Originally I was on board with trading for Markakis, but a comparison with Kirk and EY Jr. through the minors and big show reveals Neiuwenhuis may have the most potential, and obviously doesn’t cost anything more than playing time. Now if only Terry gave him more of Chris Young’s starts, and maybe even some of EY Jr.’s…