In 2012, the primary catcher for the Mets was Josh Thole, who posted a .584 OPS that year, showing what his career track attests, that he’s nothing more than a back-up. In 2013, primary catching responsibility was taken over by John Buck who also confirmed his career status by swatting 15 homeruns, supported by a meager .652 OPS. When the Mets season begins again this evening, Travis d’Arnaud will be manning the catching position, carrying with him a meager .646 OPS. On the basis of simple statistics, that doesn’t appear to show improvement, but that would be a misnomer. d’Arnaud got off to a terrible start this year, but after an 18-day refresher in Triple-A, d’Arnaud had 18 hits in his final 61 at bats prior to the All Star break. Among those 18 hits were five doubles and three home runs. For those counting, that produces a .525 SLG. When added to his .333 OBP, d’Arnaud produced an .858 OPS for those 16 games. There’s the progress and there’s far more of it across the roster than one might think.
In 2012, 34-year-old Andres Torres was the teams’ primary centerfielder. That year he had a .664 OPS and a 1.5 WAR. In 2013, 24-year-old Juan Lagares eventually took primary control of that position and produced an inferior offensive season to Torres, but his defensive mastery created a season that more than doubled Torres’ WAR. This season Lagares has already produced a 3.0 WAR through only 59 games, less than half of the games Torres played in 2012 because he’s maintained the defensive proficiency while adding 100 points to his OPS.
R.A. Dickey won the CY Young award in 2012, but was 37 years old, and one of nine pitchers over 30 who pitched at least 40 innings for the team that season. This year, the Mets have seven pitchers who are over thirty that have been a regular part of the team’s rotation and bullpen. How many of those pitchers are still on the team? Five (six if you want to throw Buddy Carlyle in, but he won’t be a big part of the team in the second half), of which only four will make significant contributions in the second half (Scott Rice has been banished to the minor leagues). Of those four, 41-year-old Bartolo Colon could very likely be traded. Although that doesn’t seem like a big age difference, the level of talent in the young guns of 2014 is a far cry from 2012. Some of the young names that are major parts of this teams’ future made appearances in 2012, but only Dillon Gee and Jon Niese were significant contributors throughout the season (Matt Harvey debuted that year, but only made 10 starts). This year, the team will close the season out with a bullpen whose most important innings will be pitched by Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Familia and Vic Black, 24, 24 and 26 respectively. 24-year-old Zack Wheeler and 26-year-old Jacob deGrom will join Niese and Gee, now at the ripe old ages of 27 and 28 respectively, as primary members of the rotation.
What does all of this mean? That for the first time in many years, the Mets will enter the second half of the season tonight with fewer questions about the future than the Met fan has become accustomed to. Instead of having to watch retreads, quadruple-A players and former All Stars in the twilight of their careers, the Mets will bring forward younger players and the hope that if those players aren’t successful, other younger players can take their places. If incumbent shortstop Ruben Tejada’s apparent return to his 2010, 2011 form is not successful, the Mets fan still has hope that 22-year-old Wilmer Flores can take the reins. Tejada is 24 by the way. Say d’Arnaud doesn’t continue his success, 23-year-old Kevin Plawecki is sitting at Triple-A and is currently ranked one of the top 100 prospects in baseball. In the same lineup sits 23-year-old shortstop Matt Reynolds, who has posted an .849 OPS this year, splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A. In Double-A , left fielder and third baseman Dustin Lawley has slugged his way to a .223 ISO. 20-year-old Dilson Herrera is Lawley’s teammate, and since his promotion to Double-A, the second baseman has posted an .893 OPS while playing against competition that is nearly five years older than him. Brandon Nimmo, the Mets much maligned 2011 first-round draft pick, is still adjusting to Double-A as he’s only hitting .213 since his promotion, but that’s also included a .180 ISO and excellent nearly 15% walk rate. The competition is nearly four years older than him as well.
So, although all of us are tired of waiting to compete, the youth that is currently manning our major league roster, coming to the major leagues soon, or waiting to return to the major leagues next year, presents the chance of a competitive team soon and for years to come. Some of that was seen in that run towards the All Star break, where the Mets won eight out of their last 10 to pull within five games of .500 for the season.
It’s hard to say what the Mets will be in the second half. David Wright has played below his career marks and was just starting to show that kind of resurgence as the first half ended. Curtis Granderson, the old man of the regulars, has been surging since the start of May. Lucas Duda is having a career year and deGrom has been a revelation in the rotation. This has all been despite getting very little production out of left field and catcher (until d’Arnauds’ recent success) and at times centerfield when Lagares has missed time. Considering all of that and the fact that the Mets were 11 games under .500 a week and a half ago, winning 82 games has to be considered a success, while playing themselves into playoff contention would be a monumental achievement. Did anyone honestly feel that way the last two seasons at this time of year? For the most part, probably only the most optimistic of fans may have. Even better than that, when was the last time that a Mets fan could say that their team was only a few players away from being in contention in the National League?
We can do that now Mets fans and that’s what d’Arnaud’s last 16 games meant. That’s what the young flame throwers in the bullpen bring. That’s the truth that is presented every time we see another successful start by our young rotation.
In the end, the wait has been long, but it looks like the Mets are in the home stretch. It’s now up to the front office to take all of these young players and supplement them with a few veterans to fill in holes that won’t be filled by the farm system for several more years. A good start was made with Granderson and Colon this year. That needs to continue.
Hopefully that will happen. It might not be at the trade deadline this year (although that would be terrific), but it has to be this offseason.
That’s the future. When tonight’s game comes to an end, hopefully the good feelings put out by the young ballplayers on this team will still be positive. This should be a second half to watch and that is something that Mets fans have definitely not had over the past few seasons.
I am looking forward to the second half based on many of the points you touched on in your article.
I have trepidation that the front office is going to “cheap out” and not get the much needed established impact middle of the order bat and the upgrade at SS before next spring. Then all this youth could be wasted on teams that almost got there.
I also have reservations in that TC is not the proper manager for this youth movement. It seems that the major league failures get sent down; Ike and Duda last year, TdA this year, Black this year , along with Flores AAA improvement and return to be productive after some adjustments, mentally and physically. It seems that on a young team Backman and his staff handle the youth better.
Here is to the second half and the youth movement. LGM
4 year youth movement. Whoop-Dee-Doo.
It should be noted that talented ballplayers win games, not young people. The Astros have the youngest teams the past 2 years, but they have also been the worst.
You shouldn’t feel optimistic because they are young. You should feel optimistic because we are getting great production out of 3-4 lineup spots, good production out of another 2, acceptable out of the rest, with decent bullpen and at least 3 starters out of 5 who are on point through each turn of the rotation.
Yes, but talented and young players fill out a roster than can compete for many years, not just the 1 or 2 the Mets have been doing since the late 80s. I see them trying to build a successful run like the Mets from 84-90 did, rather than the Mets in 99-00, or 2006.
For the majority of teams (except for the Yankees and their large bloated payroll), runs of 2-3 years making the playoffs are the norm. The addition of the second wild card will probably extend the streaks a bit.
Runs of 4+ years are the goal, but based on the sample size you need a lot of luck to get to that level as since 2000 only 3 teams, the Yankees, Braves, and Phillies have 4+ straight years of making the playoffs.
Not sure why you extended the 80s run from 84-90. If you did, you should also expand the 2000s run from 05-08
They won 90 games from 84-90, except in 1989. They didnt win 90 games in 05, 07 or 08.
I don’t think the run needs to be consecutive to be impressive. The recent Cardinals teams have never made the post-season four years in a row but they’ve made it there 10 of the last 14 years. The Red Sox from ’03 to ’09 made it six out of seven years, missing in the exact middle.
Those are the types of runs we want to see the Mets go on. Give me 10 out of 14 (with 2 titles) over four in a row in the playoffs any day.
I found it very interesting at the lack 4+ playoff runs. There seems to be some sort of “wall” at the end of the 3rd year that most teams just can’t over.
A positive spin on this is that the Braves, based on those odds, are unlikely to make the playoffs in both this year and the next, which means there’s an opening for another team. Of course, the second wild was just added recently and maybe we’ll see more consecutive runs as a result.
The Mets have some young talent that has hinted at performing—and that’s something to cheer. The young talent is not in question—- the only question is Management: Ownership/GM/Field Manager.
It’s hard to hold faith that they will Commit going forward—they have a chance Now!
I can only second eraff’s comments. It’s nice to have some young talent to watch, but I have very little faith in ownership, and by extension the GM and Mgr. Too many of us have listed our grievances so it’s not necessary to repeat them. Whatever criticisms we may have of Alderson and TC should be tempered by the realization that the real problem with the organization resides in the office of the Wilpons.
I welcome the youth movement with open arms. Teams like San Francisco and St. Louis have had extended runs because their young guys have stuck around for years, while some other young players within the organization come up. Meanwhile, St. Louis and Detroit both handed successful teams over to inexperienced young managers, and both have flourished. Terry Collins is not a good communicator, as we’ve seen many times. Managing isn’t just about putting out the best lineup card or doing a double-switch, but motivating people and getting them in line for one goal, winning.