Bartolo ColonIt’s widely thought that Bartolo Colon will not finish this season as a member of the New York Mets. Colon helped this cause mightily by pitching a perfect game on Wednesday night into the seventh inning, before Robinson Cano broke it up with two outs. The only team directly connected to Colon has been the San Francisco Giants, although multiple teams are known to be in need of starting pitching. With the Tampa Rays resurgence, potentially pulling David Price off of the market, there is not much quality starting pitching available, making it reasonable to believe that someone will meet the Mets asking price for Colon. That should involve a nearly major league ready outfielder (Gary Brown of the Giants possibly), but no rumors have come about solidifying what the Mets are asking for. Sandy Alderson has been successful with these kinds of deals in the past, so it’s hopeful that this will be another success.

The topic of how such a move will be viewed is controversial. The Mets are “sort of” in the race, but until they get to 500, it’s hard to take their slim involvement in the pennant race seriously. In all honesty, this team is not in it and should be working towards trading a player like Colon, who represents a strength of the team (starting pitching) and is not a part of the long term future as he’s only signed through next season.

So, if the Mets trade Colon for that reason, then it should be accepted as the next step in building a quality team. However, if this trade is being done for financial reasons, then we’re talking about a totally different reaction.

This season, the Mets will pay roughly between 88 and 90 million dollars in player salaries. Next season, the Mets have 54 million in salary committed to four players: Colon, David Wright, Curtis Granderson and Jon Niese.   That number will be tremendously increased by the arbitration eligible players the Mets will definitely keep in Daniel Murphy, Bobby Parnell, Dillon Gee, Eric Young Jr., Lucas Duda, Ruben Tejada and Jenrry Mejia. Those players will be paid approximately 17 million dollars this season and will all see raises next season. The only player that could have his next arbitration year bought out is Murphy if the Mets extend him, but that will raise his salary even further. Being conservative, let’s say that these arbitration increases add up to about 28 million dollars, that means the Mets have about 82 million committed next year to 11 players. The major league roster is made up of 25 players, meaning we’re 14 short. Some of those slots will presumably be filled by minimum salary players Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Anthony Recker, Travis d’Arnaud, Jeurys Familia, Vic Black, Carlos Torres, Eric Campbell, Josh Edgin, Jacob deGrom, and Juan Lagares, which takes up 11 more rosters spots and maybe, again conservatively, 7 million dollars. That pumps the payroll up to 89 million, basically matching this season’s payroll and we’re still three roster spots short. More importantly though, the team we’re talking about has made no changes to the roster, which is obviously a necessity as the team needs to at least add one bat to the lineup. One of these spots will go to a minimum salary bullpen arm as the team has plenty of bodies to throw at that bullpen. That leaves two spots, of which one needs to be an outfielder and the other an infielder who can play shortstop.

So, what does Colon have to do with all of this? Colon is set to make 11 million dollars next season. Dealing his salary for prospects cuts at most 11 million dollars off of that salary number and even if one of those prospects is major league ready, that will be a minimum salary player.

Now, if the Mets are really looking at a big time bat to add to the lineup and they don’t want to increase payroll much, Colon can’t be here. There are multiple short stops on the market next year and the possibility that players like Carlos Gonzalez or Giancarlo Stanton could be available. All of those players are going to require contracts of larger than 11 million dollars, so if Colon is still on the payroll and they keep Murphy, the team will need to stretch that payroll to over 100 million to truly give the team a chance at contention. All information seems to show that the Wilpon’s won’t be willing to do that. Could they stretch the payroll into the 90 million range? That’s probably more reasonable, especially considering the lack of success the team has had this year, which will assuredly be reflected in the money being brought in via ticket, merchandise and concession sales.

Basically, no matter what the Mets get back for Colon, this is more and more looking like a salary dump. Let’s hope that statement is wrong, because if it isn’t, then everything the Mets have said over the past few years about money not being an issue or that the Madoff situation is not reflective of the financial status of the club is an absolute fabrication. With so much money involved in so few players, the team needs to be able and willing to spend money to improve the roster.

The proof to those words is in the minor league system. Although the Mets have a lot of talent in the system, when it comes to offensive players, they are lacking in major league readiness. Brandon Nimmo won’t be with the Mets next year, and whether he’s the answer for the corner outfield problem will always be up for debate until he finally hits major league pitching. Cesar Puello has been a bust this year and Matt den Dekker proved that he’s not an everyday outfielder since his bat has yet to play well at the major league level. Travis Taijeron and Dustin Lawley are having solid seasons at Double-A Binghamton, but it’s even debatable whether they will ever be more than back-up’s in the majors. One could argue that Matt Reynolds is ready, but he doesn’t bring power to the table and is probably best served as a back-up who gets 200 to 300 at bat’s a season while backing up most of the infield positions.

In essence, although there are interesting players a few years away, nobody can be counted on to help this year or to start the season next year, in terms of the outfield or shortstop. This all relates to Colon because that trade will either be the next step towards contention next year or the Mets again waving the white flag. We’ll kow for certain when the offseason kicks in and hopefully we’re not all looking at the Mets and regretting our patience and belief in them.

28 comments on “The price of trading Bartolo Colon

  • Name

    There’s no way another team is paying all of Colon’s contract and giving the Mets a major league ready player.

    You either give away his contract for a K-rod like return, or you eat a significant part to get maybe a guy who is in A-ball.

    • Chris F

      Desperation may do strange things Name. Colons salary next yr is an albatross, but we might get a very decent prospect if we pay some of the freight. Moreso if we could package Murph in the deal.

      I’m not eager to deal Murph because his bat nearly offsets his dismal fielding, and he hits well at home, but if he and Colon were part of a big swap, I’d sure be listening.

      • Name

        I’m probably one of the most optimistic people, but when it comes to Colon, i just can’t envision any scenario where he brings back anything of value. If you package him with Murphy, you’re just masking the fact that he’s a throw-in, a la Buck last year.

        If we have to eat any money for next year, it only further cements that Colon’s deal was a mistake in my eyes.

        • Chris F

          Sure, I hear ya. And if I eclipsed your optimism, then, it must be waay out there! Still, something inside me says Colon will be a Giant or Blue Jay in August.

          • Name

            Joel Sherman and the NY post actually have the right idea about this. Nice to see a major news media getting this right.

            Some excerpts
            “…$11 million owed in 2015 that will make Sandy Alderson’s job trading the righty anywhere from difficult to impossible — unless the Mets swallow a huge sum of next year’s payday.”

            “One put it this way: “His old team [the A’s] didn’t want to sign him for two years. The only team willing to sign him for two years already has him and that second year is a killer for the Mets to move him even if they don’t want any prospects back.”

            “Colon has a 4.12 ERA. But when you adjust that for the league and his big ballpark, Colon’s ERA is actually 15 percent worse than the league average”

            “the scout said. “That is why I think there is zero chance they find someone to take him. You have to consider all the issues and that you have to pay him $11 million next year when he will be 42 and no one wants to do that. No one is going to trust to give up prospects and take on that risk.”

            “if Colon were put on waivers and claimed by a team in August, that the Mets simply would let him go so that the new team had to pay the $11 million next year. “

            • Chris F

              I read that…but hes not a GM trying to win some hardware!

              • Name

                Yep. Let’s bring home that Triple-A National Championship trophy!

            • Brian Joura

              The Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays and Angels could all use pitching upgrades and the fact that the list includes veteran, big spending clubs like the Dodgers, Yankees and Angels is a good thing when it comes to potentially moving Colon.

              One thing I wonder about is if a volatile guy like Colon is more valuable than a steady, underwhelming guy like Dan Haren. Without checking the numbers, it seems to me like 3/4 of Colon’s starts range from solid to great and the other 1/4 are terrible — which drives down his overall numbers. Would you rather have a guy like that who puts you in position to win 3/4 of the time and lose 1/4 of the time or a guy like Haren who is more likely to pitch to his 4.49 ERA each time out?

              Maybe it depends on your offense. If you’ve got a team that you feel good about scoring 4-5 runs each time out you’d rather have the Haren type. But if your offense isn’t great – like the Braves – maybe you would prefer the guy who gave you a better chance of putting up a 7.1 IP, 2 ER outing like Colon did last time out.

              Anyway, my take is if Alderson is determined to trade Colon to get out of 2015 obligations, I don’t think he’ll have much trouble doing that. I don’t believe anyone values a unit of WAR at less than $5.5 million, which means he just has to give you 2 WAR next year to break even. ZiPS projects him to finish this year at 2.5 fWAR.

              I can easily see the calculations making sense for the acquiring team if you can agree on the prospect. And if the Mets don’t care about the prospect, it becomes that much easier.

              • Chris F

                I agree right down the line there Brian. Thanks for saying what was on my mind, and with the skills and research to express it well, which I seem to lack!

              • Name

                Not sure if i agree with you on the list of teams that need pitching.
                Of that list, i only see the Yankees and Angels who have possible interest and i would add the Giants because of recent media reports.

                For trade value, perception is everything. What others see, is a guy with a 4+ ERA playing in a pitcher’s park. I guarantee if you asked one of those prospective clubs what they view Colon as, you might get a few #3s, but you’ll probably end up with mostly 4/5s. Other than maybe the Yankees, it’s questionable that the team who acquires him would even give him a start in the playoffs.
                Not to mention, every single club knows we want to get rid of him because we have all this young pitching and will leverage that against Alderson.

                Sure, Alderson can bluff, but keeping him is also a big no-no for various reasons that you already know.

                I would argue that the standard of 5-6 million per WAR is usually the standard for a Free Agent under 35. The older a free agent is, the more risk they have, and the cost per WAR should be lowered as such. $11 million for a 42 year old is a very very scary thought and probably much more risky.

  • Metsense

    The Mets need an established quality impact bat for the middle of their order. Colon has a $11M committment so he needs to be traded this week and his salary applied to the bat. Now the Mets just need another $6-10M to cover the annual salary of the established quality impact bat.This player could be a free agent but more likely should be obtained in trade this winter. This whole scenario falls apart if Colon is still with the Mets this winter. Sandy may have caused himself a real pain in the butt with the Colon signing.Hopefully a Colon removal this week will cure it.

  • Tommy2cat

    I don’t think the Mets should trade Colon this season. The reason is that he’s been a very consistent performer, especially when he avoids early-inning damage.

    He has additional value in that he’s also a mentor to some of our top young talent. This week, Familia and Wheeler both credited Colon with helping them refine their overall game through leadership & off-field instruction. He’s taught them about the importance of location and how to add & subtract from their fastball. He’s also offered guidance on the mental approach. He’s truly unflappable.

    Colon should not be traded in-season because of his overall value to the pitching staff, whether he’s on or off the mound. He’ll help solidify the performance of many of our top, young pitchers.

    Sometimes the best trades are the ones that aren’t made. We should at least wait until the off-season.

    • lanzarishi

      Beautifully stated. I agree with you wholeheartedly. You’ve said exactly what I’ve been thinking for the last month. Now if only 99% of all the other fans would listen we’d be ok! Lets hope.

      • Tommy2cat

        Thanks. Unfortunately, chances are Colon’s going to be moved. Wish Met brass were just a little more patient & concentrate on roster consolidation & player development.

    • ReneNYM1

      I think Colon is a great leader to our young staff,if we can’t afford him we should sell the team,I am sick and tired of this cheapskate games we are playing,I repeat I will not go to a Met game if their team salaries don’t hit the 125 Million mark for this city,it’s a embarrasment we are so cheap in this market,I’m not saying we have to spend stupid but we can’t compete without being able to sign our good players because we can only afford so much.

  • pete

    Scott, I don’t see all the players you listed as being arbitration eligible being here next season. Parnell is a question mark and unless he’s light out spring training then I don’t see the Mets paying him 4 million. CarGo has 35 million remaining on his contract for 2015-16. ( I would still take him) The Marlins are not trading Stanton. Gee,Murphy and ? should be part of your package deal for a left fielder. That should bring your arbitration cases down to 12-15 million dollars. Colon goes at the last minute of the trading deadline giving SA a chance to have teams bid against each other.

    • Tommy2cat

      SA may not be bound by the trading deadline, as Colon’s contract will likely enable him to be moved after the trading deadline.

      Really hope Alderson doesn’t make a move right now. I think we should dfa CY & Abreu, and promote either MDD or Andrew Brown. We are definitely capable of playing .500 ball the rest of the season. We should focus on roster consolidation and player development.

      That said, if we have a chance to get Gary Brown, we should definitely explore that opportunity. I’d rather move Niese & get a better return – perhaps Brown with another plus prospect.

      It’s strange because moving Colon appears to be such an obvious choice, but he’s been a great Met and has a very calming influence on some of our top-tier pitching talent. He also offers comic relief every now & then. We need that, too lol

    • Scott Ferguson

      The rumors about Stanton are that it’s extension or trade this winter. Basically the Marlins will give him the money or deal him.
      I think Parnell will be back.
      Any deal for an OF will probably be about prospects instead of Gee or Murphy, especially if it’s with Colorado, who supposedly like our prospects.

      • Chris F

        Interesting. I cant imagine that Stanton will be shopped. I cant even imagine what he would bring in return…top 5 prospects overall and the top prospect at every level perhaps, and more?

        Parnell is toast. There, Ive made my position known. Relievers are flighty at best. Does anyone know how his ’15 arb yr salary would work coming after a year off?

  • pete

    Much harder to move after the deadline. If the Mets eat any portion of Colon’s salary that would tell all the fans that signing Colon was a mistake. I don’t see that ever happening. Tommy I don’t think SA will DFA CY. Too embarrassing to admit he made a mistake.

  • James Newman

    I agree that they should trade Colon. Whoever the Mets get needs to be ready for 2015 if they plan on contending. Or, they could get a piece who they would be willing to flip for one of the big names that you mentioned. Any guesses on who Colon could go to?

  • Steve S.

    Deal Colon (with $2-4 million) for a good AAA or AA shortstop, with some power.

  • Jerry Grote

    I believe Colon will deliver, by the end of this season, 1.5 -2 WAR, maybe a touch more. I’d think the likelihood of him returning and delivering at least 2 WAR next year – with every start he pitches this year – increases. So that’s 3.5 Wins for $16MM. What’s wrong with that?

    Got no problem with him staying on the roster unless you get the offer you want. I agree with the author; he has value on the field. And I disagree with the author – I have no respect for “leadership”. You lead when you win/hit/field and otherwise you are noise.

    Bird in hand>bird in bush.

  • Patrick Albanesius

    Jerry “I have no respect for ‘leadership’.” So guys who hit but who are selfish A-holes in the clubhouse are good for a team? Guys who can do all the little things well and make the clubhouse a better place to be are worthless? Maybe I’m simplifying your argument too much, but I can’t agree with that thinking at all. Agree to disagree I guess.
    San Francisco is now stating they need a starter and a 2B. A more perfect situation could not present itself as it takes care of moving at least some of Colon’s contract, and it means that either Murphy or Flores gets moved. Moving Murphy frees up even more money for next year because we aren’t paying that extension. Or moving Flores means we stick with Murphy longer term, and we might get a better return through the package deal. Either way, we most likely can get some value from the Giants. Gary Brown’s value seems to have fallen off lately, and he’s not a power corner-bat anyway. Mac Williamson is the masher of their group, but had TJ surgery in April. We could grab him, and one or two of their many young arms as compensation. Just a thought.

    • jerrygrote

      Perhaps I wasn’t clear. It’s not that leadership is worthless. If is worthless wo production. By all a counts chris young is a heckuva locker room presence.

      Do the Giants have something we want that they would give up?

  • pete

    Hey Brian. Shouldn’t the Mets care about what prospect they get for Colon? Doesn’t SA have a master plan inside that brain of his? Or is he just winging it year in and year out? As the deadline approaches I’m sure his phone will be ringing. Just hope he doesn’t do the same he did with Ike.

    • Brian Joura

      I certainly believe the Mets should care but I was reading this specific argument as the Mets need to get rid of Colon no matter what and was responding to that.

  • pete

    Why put yourself in that kind of predicament? I’ve read where the Mets were willing to eat a portion of his salary just to get of hid contract for 2015. Then, what was the point in signing him? Between Wright, Granderson and Niese the Mets already have 43 million committed for 2015. Adding Arbitration cases and filling out the roster will put this team close to 80-85 million dollars which just about removes any hopes for FA upgrade at SS or LF.

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