This offseason the Mets were unwilling to pay the price to bring a new shortstop into town. Regardless of whether that was a defensible decision, the Mets followed up with the solution of moving Wilmer Flores back to shortstop, even though they moved him off the position following the 2011 season. Not once did the club indicate they thought the 2011 decision was a mistake; rather, this was clearly an attempt to get a more productive bat at the position.
The issue is – how productive is Flores’ bat?
After a slow start in Las Vegas in 2013, Flores finished with a bang, as he put up an .887 OPS. Under normal circumstances, that’s a pretty impressive mark. However, the hitting conditions in Las Vegas and the Pacific Coast League are not ordinary. Research done last year indicated that a player going from the 51s to the Mets lost on average 19% on their OBP and 30% on their SLG.
That means that Flores’ .357/.531 marks translated into a .289/.372 and in reality he put up a .248/.295 OBP/SLG numbers for the Mets. Defenders of Flores were quick to point out how young he was and also that he was slowed by an ankle injury. They also could have pointed to his .264 BABIP dragging down his major league numbers.
In a move that seemed unfathomable at the end of the 2013 season, the Mets opened 2014 with Ruben Tejada as their starting shortstop. At the beginning of the year, both his batting and fielding were unimpressive. Eventually both areas improved for Tejada. Most of his offensive production could be chalked up to his ability to draw walks but his fielding is where we really started to notice improvement.
Still, with the season down the tubes, the decision was made to install Flores as the primary shortstop, a move to which very few people objected. The Mets knew what they had in Tejada but they needed to find out what they had in Flores. It should be pointed out that Flores had 100 sporadic PA with the Mets in 2014, in which he put up a .229/.260/.313 line for a .573 OPS. Defenders of Flores were quick to point out how young he was and also that he was hurt by not getting consistent playing time.
Since August 7, Flores has started at shortstop in 15 of the team’s 16 games. In that span, the Mets are 6-10 and Flores has a .218/.246/.236 line in 57 PA. Depending on who you ask, Flores’ fielding in this span ranks somewhere between good and dreadful. He’s not passing the eye test, as his range seems limited, his arm weak and his glove inconsistent. Yet UZR likes what it’s seen from Flores, giving him a 2.5 mark in 306.1 innings at shortstop. For the sake of completeness, DRS gives him a (-3) number, one that seemingly matches better with watching him play.
Watching Flores, one cannot help but to draw comparisons to another recent Mets farmhand – Jordany Valdespin. Like Flores, Valdespin played shortstop in the minors only to have the Mets move him off the position. Unlike Flores, the club felt that Vadespin was athletic enough to move to the outfield. In his career with the Mets, Valdespin recorded 43 starts in the OF, 13 at 2B and 1 at SS.
In 2013, Valdespin was also given a shot at regular playing time, taking over at 2B. This was not a move that the majority of people signed off on, as it made Daniel Murphy move to 1B and kept Lucas Duda in the OF, all to get playing time for a guy who had not displayed much ability to hit MLB pitching. In his one-week audition, Valdespin put up a .154/.154/.154 line in 26 PA and a month later his career with the Mets was over.
Valdespin ended his tenure in New York with a .651 OPS in 350 PA. While a low BABIP held his AVG to a dismal .219 mark, Valdespin at least showed some power, putting up a .156 ISO. He also added 14 SB with the Mets. Meanwhile, Flores has 258 PA with the Mets and has a .541 OPS. His ISO sits at .069 and he has 0 SB.
Flores will never be good defensively, although he probably would be decent at third base. He’s not someone you would want to keep as a utility player because while he’s willing to play 2B, 3B and SS – he’s not someone you’d really want to play every day if a starter went on the DL. None of his power has translated to the majors, which severely limits his attractiveness as a PH.
Defenders of Flores will point out that he’s young.
He’s not going to play 3B as long as David Wright’s on the team. He’s likely behind both Daniel Murphy and Dilson Herrera in the pecking order at 2B. And he’s really not wowed us in his SS audition to date. If forced at gunpoint to predict his MLB future with the Mets, what would you say?
Hopefully my well-known jinx powers will come to play and Flores goes off on a hot streak to end all hot streaks from now through the end of the season. But if that doesn’t happen, we’re looking at another year in Triple-A or a spot on the bench for Flores in 2015. And if his ceiling for the club is bench player, is there any reason to prefer him to Valdespin?
Of course, Valdespin was a bit off a hothead or showboat and Flores, goofy hairstyles aside, comes off much more vanilla. And if there’s one thing we know about the Wilpon-era Mets, it’s that they prefer their players not to rock the boat. Any player with personality – ranging from Kevin Mitchell to Lenny Dykstra to Lastings Milledge – is shown the door. And any managerial candidate with the same has no chance of getting a shot.
So, we’re left with hoping that all the balls hit to Flores in the field are of the charity hop variety and that somehow his front foot toe tap and stride with his back leg will lead to at least some consistent doubles power.
But hey, he’s young ya know?
Ahhh, the tell tale sign of a late season meltdown in full blown progress — Titanic meet iceberg, iceberg, this is the Titanic. With introductions over, I’m sure you guys will find something to interact about. Articles have turned to our bygone’s and whether they would be better than the decisions we made. If discussing Valdespin is the “canary in the coal mine” for the 2014 season, then we need to accept 2015 is already almost certainly lost as well.
Good bye JV. I hope to never utter your name again.
Comparing apples to apples, Flores outhit MDD, Lagares, Kirk and Campbell in AAA, yet they all get to hit higher in the order with Flores mostly batting eighth. So far he has not gotten a fair shot at showing what he can do with his bat. I agree he is not a long term solution at SS, but to say he does not have a strong arm leaves me questioning the validity of your eye test. Through all of this he has been a good soldier, so your comparison to JV makes no sense, nor does your comment of not fitting the Wilpon mold.
all in all this whole story made little sense.
Triple-A stats:
Campbell — .355 AVG, .430 wOBA
den Dekker – .334 AVG, .412 wOBA
Flores — .323 AVG, .399 wOBA
They’re all somewhat similar but Flores comes in third.
No one questions that he’s been a good solider. The comparison to JV is that Valdespin was a hothead and Flores wasn’t. And that’s why Flores is still here and JV isn’t. Flores fits the Wilpon mold to a T.
Perhaps the story made little sense because you had your facts backwards and you completely misread what I wrote about Flores being a Wilpon guy.
Not just a hot head Brian. He was a clubhouse cancer, which was patently obvious.
I think it’s unfair to label him a cancer.
But, let’s grant that Flores is a much better teammate, a guy you’d much rather have in the clubhouse and sitting next to you on the bench.
How much is that worth?
Is it worth 110 points of OPS and a defensive downgrade? Who would you rather have on first base if you needed to steal a base? Who would you rather have at the plate in the 9th inning needing an XBH?
Let’s make one thing clear — I’m not campaigning to bring JV back. I’m just saying if JV wasn’t productive enough to be on the club then where does that leave us here?
I think labeling him a cancer is more than fair. Don’t you remember his teammates on more than one occasion ignoring upon his return to the dugout when he was looking for high fives, his clubhouse tirade when he was demoted, his selfie in a Marlins cap…
The things you list are not anything someone should be proud of doing. But they fall far, far short of being a cancer. Those are examples of selfish behavior. It would be more accurate to describe him as a fly at the family picnic.
who do I want in the 9th inning? Flores. Each and every time, I want Flores over JV.
Valdespin has some miraculous moments in pressure situations but statistics shows us that those are not repeatable skills over the long haul.
One of the best reputed players in his era for heroics was Joe Carter, and Bill James eviscerated statistically his ability to replicate images of 9th inning wonders.
At the end of the day, yes age needs to be accounted for when comparing players. You might not like it, but it does.
Flores, at ages 20,21 and 22 was producing +RC of 121, 138 and 139 in the highest levels of the minor leagues. JV was in A ball.
Its not even close, and its substantiated by the fact that one of the two has been ranked by nearly every organization as a top 100 prospect for several years. Flores will eventually outhit Valdespin.
At 21 and 22, Flores was in the PCL putting up impressive raw numbers but ones that once you took the air out of them were not very notable. At age 21, he was tied for the seventh-highest OPS on the team among those with at least 100 PA. His .887 OPS was just 8 percent higher than the team mark — including pitchers.
While Valdespin was just in A-ball like you note, at least he had the highest OPS on the team among those with at least 100 PA and he had an .846 OPS compared to a .677 team mark. And pitchers don’t hit in the SALLY.
While Flores was indeed ranked in the top 100 by BA, his last ranking came in 2011.
I hope you’re right that he’ll eventually hit.
“yet they all get to hit higher in the order with Flores ”
In 2013, when Flores first came up, Terry Collins mostly batted him 5th and 6th. He was an utter disaster, so naturally when he came up this year, he was right to bat him lower in the order.
Campbell came up this year also batting 5/6, but he’s hit so he’s deserving of a higher batting spot.
Lagares when he first came up was batting mostly 7/8, and when he started hitting last year, moved up in the lineup.
Kirk when he came up, batted 1st, but he responded by posting a 700+ OPS over the majority of the season.
Your only valid gripe is with MDD, who has actually shown less with the bat than Flores at the MLB level, but mdd actually has actually outhit Flores in the minors.
In recap, all of them were given initial shots to hit higher in the order. Campbell, Kirk, and Lagares all produced, while Flores and Mdd did not. He was given more than a fair shot both last season and this season.
All in all, your argument has zero merit.
I’m presuming a Cowgill versus EYJ article is somewhere in our future … buried within it, the thrice used line “well, he’s fast”.
Snark aside, I have to start by saying I haven’t actually seen a lot of ball lately but when I’ve caught Flores … he seems to be hitting it pretty crisply. Perhaps that’s evidenced by a low BABIP. Flores has pedigree, he’s shown he can do some very unusual things at a young age.
I just don’t think any Mets fan will be able to get that fumble-the-ball-fall-on-my-face play out of their mind. Ultimately, it will be the butt-fumble for this team. Flores is toast at SS.
Brian,
we talked a bit about this in the live chat, but in case others wish to opine:
I would like to see Matt Reynolds called up now. It’s not that I am giving up on Wilmer, nor do I wish to see less at-bats for Daniel Murphy, but in watching, daily, the progress of Reynolds, as well as the lack of production from Wilmer (in short sample), I think he has earned this shot. He is hitting to all fields, consistently. Let’s see what he has.
I don’t know how to factor in the Sandy, walk or home run philosophy. Its something I don’t grasp, as a slavery to statistics.
if sandy was a slave to walk or homerun, would ever have seen Wilmer Flores play? he does not and has never really done either.
What he does do, and has done even in this terrible year, has been to not strike out often and square it up fairly well. Eventually, the guy is going to bat .275; its just the pressure of numbers. You strike out 13% of the time and average a .320 BABIP, its a .278 BA. He walks 5%, and it seems to me that he’s going to be good for a .140 ISO.
Again, its just numbers, but you are looking at a player that will get you to .275/.320/.415. He’s probably better than that, though.
But no. He’s not a BB and HR guy, he’s not an example of SA’s slavery to stats.
[edit: Fangraphs shows me 96 players under the age of 25 with 100 AB. Of them, Flores is 15th at 14.6%, in a cluster of other guys]
you misunderstand my post about S/A.
I did not say that Flores is successful in fulfilling Sandy Alderson’s slavery to statistics.
I suspect that Travis D’Arnaud was struggling so badly trying to work late counts the way SA preaches. He went down to AAA and regained the slugger’s mentality: drive the ball.
As to Sandy Alderson: he likes guys who walk and hit home runs. Look at the contract he gave Granderson. It is massive and it is for home runs. Granderson has not fulfilled the value of the contract and I’d like to see him on waivers along with Colon.
I also think it is an utter waste to give Bobby Abreau at bats at AAA. I don’t get it.
That’s pretty darn generous of you to give him a BABIP that ranks in the top third of what MLB hitters do. It’s also pretty generous to think he’s going to produce an ISO twice as high as what he’s currently producing.
both, pretty representative of what he has done in the past … competing against guys considerably older than he.
ZIPS and Steamer both initially had him at .130 roughly, so I’m hardly “generous”. Its not like he hasn’t posted ISOs between 180 and 200. BABIP, perhaps. But let’s just say my exuberance in one area would about make up for shorting him in another.
Again, its the pressure of simply not striking out and being able to generate some ISO. He’s done both, as a teenager and a young man. Not hard at all to see him improving quite a bit and I think your desire to make a point has you being overly harsh on the “young man”.
While you think I’m being harsh, I think you’re being naive about a player carrying over his BABIP and ISO from the minors to the majors.
Valdespin had minor league BABIPs of .353, .390, .413, .325 and .346 and his MLB mark is .247
What little success he did have can be traced to carrying over his ISO.
You can list 50 players who did carry over both and I can list 500 who didn’t. The ones who can are the ones who turn into MLB regulars and stars. It takes an awful lot of projection to put Flores in that category.
OMG … really? We’re going to be looking at JV playing as a 23 year old in a rookie league when he compiled a total of 80 ABs to show off a .413 BABIP???
When he played extensively in the minor leagues in one place – 100 ABs or more – he had a much lower profile than what you are selectively showing and we can all read a fangraphs page.
And at the same time you are completely ignoring the fact that JV struck out
A Lot.
Mostly around 20% or more. Having a high BABIP and a high K% in the minor leagues tends to invalidate the former. And I’m calling bullshit on your ability to come up with players that averaged less than 15%K ratios of being able to sustain their established BABIP. Especially, especially those playing at incredibly young ages for their competition.
How selective do you want to be to compare these two players? You have to be the only person on the face of Mets fandom that would even begin to place an equal value on these two guys.
In the two years in the minors where Flores put up the most ABs in one stop, he put up BABIP numbers of .291 and .301 — yet we’re supposed to believe that in a full season in MLB he’ll regularly put up a .320 BABIP — forgive me if I’m not ready to drink that Kool Aid. Those years he put up ISO numbers of .110 and .068
He hit well in the PCL. That’s super. So did Andrew Brown and Omar Quintanilla. Once we take the appropriate air out of those stats we see it’s not impressive.
You’re hanging a lot of hope on a low K% and it sure is a nice change of pace to have a guy who’s not a threat to strike out in 30% of his ABs. But here’s the list of qualified players last year in the PCL who had a BABIP of .320 and up and a K% of 15% or less:
Kensuke Tanaka
Daniel Robertson
Daric Barton
Kolten Wang
Tony Gwynn Jr.
Gregorio Petit
Wilmer Flores
Johnny Giavotella
Eric Campbell
Let’s pick another year at random. How about 2009
Howie Clark
Julio Borbon
Jason Bourgeois
Kevin Howard
Jerry Owens
Buck Coats
Mike McCoy
Matt Murton
Angel Sanchez
Matt Miller
Alcides Escobar
Esteban German
John Bowker
Eric Young
Brad Coon
Michael Ryan
Who’s the success story? Alcides Esccobar has been the only full-time player out of the group and he has a .298 BABIP in 3,062 PA in the majors. My guess is Eric Young has the next most PA out of the group and he’s had the following BABIPs in the majors: .295, .304, .300, .367, .301 and .289 this year. He has a lifetime .308 BABIP, which is propped up by the one outlier.
I just don’t see the low K% – Hi BABIP combo that Flores (in the PCL) offers to be so valuable. Maybe Kolten Wong and/or Flores turns out to be good. But I’m not going to have any problem pointing out a bunch of guys with that same skill set who made little to no impact in the majors.
*****
I regret putting Valdespin into this article. This was always supposed to be about Flores and the use of Valdespin was only to point out that a recent guy who no one wanted on the team had put up better numbers. So, please, remove Valdespin from the conversation.
Flores has been a disappointment and his bat has obviously been unproductive. At gunpoint, I would not count on Flores in any future plans and in 2015 put him behind Herrera at second base and Reynolds at SS on the minor league depth chart. That leaves third base for Flores and if he gets another major league chance it will be because Wright gets injured.
The fact that Flores is even being considered a shortstop is the real story. The shortstop position should have been addressed last winter with” at least ” a major league backup shortstop added to the roster. The minor league advisors moved Flores from the position so the move always wreaked of desperation. It is not a position a “true” contending team would have deliberately put themselves in.
I’d say there’s not “defenders of Flores” so much as those of us who haven’t made up their minds yet on a guy who despite obvious flaws in his game, hit his way onto the roster at age 21. That our system didn’t have the depth to prevent that ascent isn’t his fault.
*Anyone* can hit *anything* in 57 PA, and as far as I’m concerned he ought to have the remainder of the year to improve upon that (or not). If he winds up no better than Valdespin than that’s a shame but if so, he can easily be replaced. Are you suggesting you would trade him for Valdespin? Yeah, no.
Jon, you raise a very interesting perspective that has the key consequence. The minor league depth chart perhaps let his modest talents to shine above other peers, as you say, not his fault. It also directly shines light on the huge gulf between AAA PCL and the the reality of MLB-level pitching. Whether it be Flores, MdD, or Kirk, the hitting numbers plummet. So far we’ve been met with a lot of disappointment.
Metsense, the thought of Flores at third sends chills down my spine. Given how poor his throwing aim to 1b is from short, imagine the pressure from much further away, esp on a ball down the line. A few grounders to his right from third I believe would rapidly dis-spell any notion he could be competent there at mlb speed.
I don’t see any comparison between Wilmer and Valdy. Valdy was let go purely because of his attitude. Wilmer doesn’t have this problem. Wilmer’s problem is that he is not hitting at the level, he is expected to. He is still 23 years old. Too early to give up on. Sending him down to the minors, won’t help him. He’s proven he can hit there. Maybe his fielding is putting to much pressure on him? I notice he swings never swings at the first pitch. I don’t know what the answer to his problem is? But he’s to young to give on.
Valdy’s statistics with the Marlin’s and New Orleans are far from outstanding. But he does hit in the clutch and has a flair for the dramatic. I didn’t think the Mets should have just let him go. I also feel the Mets system mishandled him. I share his opinion of Collins. But as an employee I would know better than to express it, to my boss, he can’t take that type of criticism. Valdy is basically a “kid”, and needs to mature, and will as he grows older.
One thing the current Met organization does is not treat their young players correctly. They hold them back, and when they are promoted to major’s they sit them on the bench and let the player who are having terrible seasons continue to play. In the four years of SA and TC, this has gone on, and I’ve seen young players lose there confidence in themselves and question their abilities. They have tried to change how the youngster’s play the game, and have failed.
This just in … the Athletics have claimed Yunel Escobar on revocable waivers. Escobar is bound through 2017 on what appears to be a very reasonable contract if can get anywhere near previous production.
BB Ref has him at 8.1 WAR from 2011 to 2013. Only David Wright accumulated more value over that same time period on the Mets; Granderson was at 9+ with the Yankees. Of course, we have every solution covered here in Queens.
Just sayin’, we had a shot first. I don’t watch enough Mets baseball and I certainly don’t follow the Rays. But you have to wonder if ole Billy Beane didn’t just steal one from Sandy.
Teams in the same league have first shot. With the Rays being in the AL, the Athletics had priority over the Mets.
right you are.
Escobar will cost Oakland too much, and Brian is right in that the AL teams go first. The Rays will want a very good prospect, and the A’s don’t have many.
I think we all have to admit that whatever Flores gives the Mets for the remainder of this season is what he will be judged on moving forward. While a month and a half is not a completely fair time to judge a young player, who’s quite frankly playing in the wrong position, that’s the breaks. If Flores’ bat doesn’t come alive to the point of making up for so-so defense, then he will most likely be on another team next year.
If you’re comparing MLB stats to decide which of these guys you “prefer”, you’re not accomplishing much. Neither has a stat line that depicts an MLB player.
Yes—young players struggle…and teams decide whether they want to watch them struggle “some more” based on various factors and remaining expectation/hope of development.
The Mets are providing Flores a couple of hundred at bats (I Hope!) in the hopes that he begins to look something like the promissing stat line of a very young player at an advanced MILB level. For The Bat, at least, they remain hopeful and expectant. He does yet look anything like the player portrayed by his previous stat lines.