Finally! We have something by which to judge Terry Collins

“All I’ll say is we have higher expectations than we’ve had in the past.”

– Sandy Alderson, February 2014

Saturday’s night loss made it mathematically impossible for the Mets to win 90 games. If you recall, back in February, Alderson allegedly told team executives that the Mets should challenge for that many wins this season. The remark was not meant for public consumption but it got out anyway. Alderson responded that it was meant to challenge the team’s mindset and not as an actual prediction.

“We kind of like our team. If you look at the run differential, we should be a .500 team. We’re not. At the same time, it doesn’t mean we should throw everyone overboard.”

– Alderson, July 2014

This still sounds like someone who believes in the squad assembled. In years past, we were told it was unfair to blame the manager because the talent wasn’t there. But before the year started, the assumption was that the talent was there. In early July, the indication was that the team assembled was better than the results and the implication was that the results would follow the run differential.

Terry Collins is likely to be brought back for a fifth season as Mets manager in 2015, sources familiar with the situation say.

While the Mets are planning to bring Collins back to manage, officials in the know say, and the expected return assumes the Mets remain on their steady path of improvement, avoiding anything close to a collapse over the final 42 games.”

– CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, August 13, 2014

The problem is we’re all familiar with the situation and it never changes, at least not for the good. Nothing is ever the manager’s fault. You know what? It’s someone’s fault. Someone needs to step up and take some accountability for this mess. Because there’s no other way to describe it. We need someone to blame and for that person to no longer be associated with the Mets.

Many people want the owners to go. Hah! Like that will ever happen. A lot of people want the GM to go. That at least has a chance of happening. But you know what? At least the GM has done a few good things for the team. We can debate whether the good things outweigh the bad things but at least everyone would agree that there have been positive additions from the general manager.

There’s nothing good about the manager. Let me rephrase that – there’s nothing good about the manager that 1,000,000 people with a pulse couldn’t duplicate if given a chance. Why the unflagging loyalty to a guy who does nothing to drive the team forward? And we have a smoking gun that proves not only does he bring nothing to the table, he actually takes things away.

Remember run differential and how that was indicative of the quality of a team? The Mets have a better run differential than the Yankees, yet somehow the Yankees are six games over .500 while the Mets are 10 games below. But maybe it’s just a one-year fluke. Here’s how Girardi has done since taking over the Yankees compared to his run differential:

2008 – +2
2009 – +8
2010 – (-2)
2011: (-4)
2012: Even
2013: +6
2014: +6
Total: +16

And here are the numbers for Collins:
2011: (-2)
2012: (-1)
2013: Even
2014: (-3)
Total: (-6)

Girardi is 5-2-1 versus his run differential while Collins is 0-3-1. The two years where Girardi did not meet or exceed his run differential, he guided his team to 97 and 95 wins. Collins has yet to crack 80. Yet here in the year where everything was supposed to be different, where the GM specifically set out to change the culture, Collins is on track to have his worst differential ever.

Remind me again why he should come back?

Some will say it’s not fair to credit/blame the manager for a team’s run differential. OK, what is it fair to judge our manager on?

Going back to the Heyman quote, “Avoiding anything close to a collapse…” So there you go. Forget rooting for youngsters to improve, a prime guy to hit a home run milestone or struggling veterans to turn things around. Don’t root for any of that.

Root for the team to lose every game between now and the end of the season. Root for a collapse that would make 2007 look tame in comparison. Root for utter and abject failure that would be impossible for the suits to ignore. Root for whatever it takes to get a new man at the helm on Opening Day 2015.

Hey, we’re off to a good start. Since that Heyman article originally appeared, the Mets are 6-10. But we’re going to have to do better than that. Fortunately there are still seven games left with the Nationals, who have taken us behind the woodshed with regularity this season. If we go 2-5 in those games and 7-12 in the other remaining 19 games, that would put us 15-27 since the article, a winning percentage of .357, which works out to 58 wins over an entire season.

That would leave us with a team that didn’t come close to 90 wins. A team that played beneath its run differential. And a team that collapsed down the stretch.

And maybe it would leave us with a new manager. A boy can dream.

22 comments for “Finally! We have something by which to judge Terry Collins

  1. Steve S.
    August 31, 2014 at 11:36 am

    We keep hearing how Backman will never manage the Mets, under Alderson. Too bad. He’s exactly what they need. Someone who really will have players playing hard, attending to fundies, and benching guys who don’t produce. And he couldn’t possibly make as many dumb statements as Collins does.

    • Peter Hyatt
      August 31, 2014 at 1:39 pm

      I haven’t liked Backman’s antics, but results do not lie. I’m with you, Steve.

      I don’t like that Alderson has such a hard time telling the truth. It bothers me. I do not trust him. I recognize that so much needs to be kept back, for a variety of reasons. But he holds the fans in contempt when he lies; presupposing us all to be too stupid to catch on.

      TC 1500 games and has failed to reach the lofty goal of:

      mediocre at .500

  2. Eraff
    August 31, 2014 at 11:54 am

    When Sandy Alderson declares that it’s a 90 win Team I don’t use that as a Measuring stick on the Manager…I use it to measure Sandy Alderson—he’s dellusional….or a liar….or he doesn’t know what he’s looking at—perhaps all three!!!

    I think Collins has done exactly the job that needed to be done—Human Shield. Patience and Attendance are getting Thin….and I wonder, “What do they have to sell a ticket buyer in 2015?”.

    They recently used a Roster Spot on Herrera…not sure whether that was a compulsory in december or not….maybe it points to a higher urgency regarding baseball or revenue or both. Suddenly, I see a possiblity that they will “re-launch” for 2015. I little money?…a little youth??? Maybe a new face in the dugout? Without some excitement, there’s nothing to sell…nothing to watch. Without wins or buzz, they’re all getting fired anyway….maybe time to get rid of the Human Shield.

    BTW—Tim Teufel is the 3rd Base Coach— he’d be an excellent choice and one that ownership/Management might embrace….maybe they’ll even reach for Backman!!! He’s more than “just” an 86′er….he’s paid his dues.

  3. Peter Hyatt
    August 31, 2014 at 1:40 pm

    Eraff,

    Tim Teufel might be a “split the difference” for Alderson.

    My concern is that Alderson needs a manager he can control.

    Watching Curtis Granderson not be benched until we were out of things was just too much.

    Editor’s Note – Please do not capitalize words in your post, as that’s a violation of our Comment Policy.

  4. Metsense
    August 31, 2014 at 10:12 pm

    We have always had someting to judge Collins on; it is called a won/lost record. The won/lost record is stagnant. There are been many common sense articles and posts on this site showing the fallacy of Collins thinking and thoughts on how to change things up a little. The team starts losing, he trots out the same line up, and they continue to lose. Stagnant. I never read anything positive on Collins other than the players like him and they play hard for him. If they play hard for him, then why does the team crumble in August? The team is stagnant and a new view point and approach should be tried. Miami has passed them and the Phillies, the old worn out Phillies, are breathing down their necks. Something needs to be changed and Collins should be the first change.

  5. Chris F
    August 31, 2014 at 10:41 pm

    Sorry Brian. He could lose every game for the rest of the season, but it wouldn’t matter, Collins is a loyal soldier and with the 2015 tryouts in full force, SA can’t and won’t hold him accountable. This club can’t walk and chew gum, and expecting SA to be consistent is insane. Call it mission creep or moving the goal posts or whatever, but you won’t hear anything bad from SA about TC.

  6. Patrick Albanesius
    September 1, 2014 at 1:42 am

    Asking for losses is cutting off your nose to spite your face. Terry Collins is coming with us. We all just have to figure out a way to get along with him.

    • September 1, 2014 at 9:52 am

      Generally, I would agree with your first sentence. In this specific case, the Mets have to take a step backwards in order to take five steps forward. It’s no different from when they traded Beltran for Wheeler. They took an immediate hit to put themselves in better position for the future.

      • Jerry Grote
        September 1, 2014 at 12:42 pm

        We have been taking so many step backwards so we can go forward, I feel like Napolean’s retreat from Moscow.

        • September 1, 2014 at 1:05 pm

          Ha!

          It’s unfortunate that we would need to move further backwards to remove an obvious problem. It’s my opinion that this will be the last backwards move that would need to be made.

          • September 1, 2014 at 10:12 pm

            Next to last Brian. The Wilpons in the rear view mirror would be.

    • September 1, 2014 at 10:09 am

      Why do we have as fans have to figure out a way to get along with TC? I would turn the question around 180 degrees and ask if Terry Collins was managing any other team would he be fired?

  7. TexasGusCC
    September 2, 2014 at 1:58 am

    The Mets are an organization that doesn’t respect their customer or their young players, so don’t bother expecting the team to change now. Collins is perfect: A Loser manager for a Loser organization.

  8. September 2, 2014 at 4:02 am

    TexasGus TC is the right skipper for the Metantic disaster that’s happening in front of our eyes every day! The owner and the front office are in denial. They complain about the lack of loyal fans coming to Citifield to support “their” team. Number one market in all of baseball and yet teams like the Royals and Twins have larger payrolls while playing in much smaller markets. At least their owners try to win and are willing to take on more payroll since the new national television contracts increased from 25 million to 50 million annually. The Mets being prudent investors reduced payroll from the previous year.

    • TexasGusCC
      September 2, 2014 at 9:59 am

      Pete, I disagree with your first sentence but agree with everything else.

  9. September 2, 2014 at 10:24 am

    I was being sarcastic in referencing TC as the “skipper” of the Metantic. We all know what happened to the Captain of the Titanic. TC and the Wilpons deserve each other as Collins consistently sinks the Mets to new depths. The Wilpons need the Mets to win to get out of debt and TC is cast perfectly for them not to succeed. How can you not love the irony of the situation?

  10. Raff
    September 3, 2014 at 5:36 am

    Brian, I have great difficulty in believing the “leak” of Alderson’s spring training “90-Win” statement to team execs, along with details about their comments & responses– quickly followed by the refrain– “The remark was not meant for public consumption” was anything but a complete fabrication and crude publicity/propaganda stunt to hype interest and ticket sales. In any event- assuming I bite on the claim that such a conversation actually happened- there’s a limited cast of characters who were involved in the conversation- Alderson and the owners, essentially. Alderson says “it wasn’t meant for public consumption.” So that leaves us with the guys he was talking to — the owners- who would have been the ones to release details of the conversation to the press, through Horowitz, I assume. In summation- The guys who pay the bills, smarmy and unlikeable as they are, are the guys who have final say in determining what information regarding the Mets is and is not meant for public consumption. So, whether we believe the conversation was real, created out of whole cloth, or anything else- The Wilpon’s intended it “for public consumption”

    • September 3, 2014 at 9:10 am

      I believe it’s possible this was a PR stunt. The front office has not earned our trust in this regard.

      But if this was an actual conversation, I find it very easy to believe that there were more than three people in the room. And even if there were only three, is it so far-fetched to think that Jeff told someone else who leaked it to the media?

      Bottom line is that while I would not rule out this being a PR stunt, I find it easier to believe that this is smoke he was blowing in the owners’ faces, talk not meant to leave the room.

  11. September 3, 2014 at 9:35 am

    In that case Brian is it possible JW decided to hold his GM accountable by leaking to a source what SA meant for private consumption? Either way you have to start to wonder if Alderson will be here that much longer.

    • September 3, 2014 at 10:13 am

      That certainly sounds plausible to me.

      • Raff
        September 3, 2014 at 6:59 pm

        And that is my point. “If” the conversation actually happened, the details were released with the imprimatur of the Wilpon’s, and Sandy had no choice but to just “eat-it” and say it wasn’t for public consumption. Further, if the entire thing was a fabrication, likewise it was released at the direction of the Wilpon’s, with the same net-effect. Sandy had to “eat it”. Either way, whether there was actually a conversation, or if this came out of the “House-of-Wilpon” design studio, the Wilpon’s wanted the story out there. April 1st- with only a million in advanced ticket sales, or so- this is the most plausible explanation.

  12. Eraff
    September 4, 2014 at 5:29 am

    Three years of “2014 is the year”….. then a smoke bomb “90 wins”— well, at least there was a “story line” for 2014.

    They don’t have much to sell for 2015… I expect the first salvo will be a Collins firing. They need a loud “New Sign” for revenues, and I’m now 75% convinced that Collins will be gone as part of the “excitement”.

    Oh—and they need some baseball moves (haha),,, do I believe in the target and pace of the present GM Troika to strike paydirt? No.

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