Who are Dilson Herrera‘s comps among past players for the Mets? It’s not an easy question to answer. Given his age and his defensive position, Jose Reyes might jump to mind. But Reyes was promoted in June and received 292 PA in his rookie season. Let’s look for comps based on age and expected playing time. It’s reasonable to assume that Herrera, with his late August promotion, will receive around 110 PA this year. Maybe the final number is 80 or 140 but 110 is not a bad guess.
So, here are the people who in their debut/rookie season for the Mets received between 50 and 200 PA at age 23 or younger:
With stars like Reyes and David Wright eliminated by the PA maximum — and others like Cleon Jones, who had 15 PA in 1963, eliminated on the other end — it’s not exactly an overwhelming list. It shows why so many people were so taken by Victor Diaz and why I’ve always been a Daniel Murphy fan. It also shows why the Mets should have committed to Wally Backman much earlier than they did.
Regardless, there are 28 names on this list and Billy Murphy sits at number 14 with a 71 OPS+. In other words — don’t expect much from Herrera. After 24 PA, Herrera’s 86 OPS+ puts him comfortably in the top half of the list, albeit with not enough PA to qualify.
Interestingly, only four previous 20 year olds made the list — Backman, Bobby Heise, Amos Otis and Fernando Martinez. We all remember the hype surrounding Martinez. At least Herrera does not come with those types of expectations clinging around his neck.
Because of the out-of-left-field nature of his promotion, no one has any expectations whatsoever from Herrera. If he falls on his face no one will be disappointed, and if he holds his own it will leave most of us thrilled. And if he more than holds his own, we can examine further how he did it and hopefully avoid a mistake from the past.
Those of us who remember Mike Vail can attest to how much publicity and how much fanfare there was, both in regards to his promotion and his performance in his big league debut. The Mets’ brass was so thrilled that they shuttled fan favorite Rusty Staub out of town to make room for Vail. But if they looked past the hitting streak and the batting average, they would have seen a guy with no power who succeeded thanks to a .377 BABIP.
If Herrera has an empty batting average primed for regression, hopefully we don’t trade Murphy for an old fat pitcher to open up a spot for him.
If the Mets had a better game plan for this season they might of been in position for a wild card. The FO after how many years still counted on retread pitchers to sustain their bullpen. Expecting Bobby Parnell who was coming back from neck surgery with no back up in place was inexcusable. No faith in the kids to do what we as fans see they can accomplish if given the chance. The youngsters we keep hearing so much about would be a refreshing change I would rather see than the likes of Rick Ankiel or Kyle Farnsworth. It’s time to make the move on the field as well as of the field.
Your age cutoff left one of the more interesting players off the list. Mike Jacobs showed up at Shea in August 2005, and proceeded to slug .710 over 100 At Bats.
It was enough to embellish Jacob’s image, so that he became a key part of the trade that brought the Mets Carlos DelGato. And Jake wasn’t really a bust, either, despite some shortcomings; he gave the Fish a few decent years while hitting in the toughest park for a lefthander to hit a home run. A win for the Mets, and decent production at a price they could afford for the Marlins.
Nice trip down memory lane with Jacobs.
I thought 23 was pushing it on the upper age limit. But if I made it 22 and lower I would have lost nearly half the sample.
Brian, I’m not sure BABIP was even “invented” in 1975. Bill James didnt publish anything til 1977, and I doubt many people were looking at advanced stats back then (Earl Weaver not-withstanding)
What really should have set them off was 37 Ks in 38 games for a non power hitter!
BTW, the Mets got exactly nothing for him, as the Indians selected him off waivers before the 1978 season. They should have traded him right after that hitting streak.