At 27 years old, Kirk Nieuwenhuis can hardly be considered a young player, but in 50 games this season, he is finally starting to come into his own.
Yes, it’s a small sample size, and his .271/.373/.518 line is a little bit BABIP-driven, but he certainly passes the eye test as having improved over the past several years.
His strikeout rate is still high at over 30%, but his 14.7% walk rate is more than stellar, and he has been making solid contact with the ball when he connects.
The breakout this year by Nieuwenhuis is pleasant, but not surprising. As recently as 2012, John Sickels had him ranked as the sixth-best prospect in the Mets system (though that probably says more about how bad the farm system was than anything else).
Nieuwenhuis was always regarded as a guy who was average to above-average in all of his tools, but didn’t have one that stood out as plus.
In his first few trips to the major leagues in 2012 and 2013, he was unable to show that he could keep everything together long enough to warrant a full-time roster spot, and so he pretty much sat in AAAA no-man’s land, shuffling between Queens, Buffalo, and Las Vegas.
But this year with his improved results, he is making a case to remain on the 25-man roster as a reserve outfielder next season (or even – gulp – a platoon starter if major upgrades aren’t made, which six years after Madoff is still a major question).
Nieuwenhuis’ major problem comes from him being not as good of a fielder as Matt den Dekker, but he has the advantage of being the better offensive player.
If nothing else, Nieuwenhuis’ track record in the majors gives him the advantage in that battle, and he’s probably the superior overall player, though we need to see more of den Dekker before we can make that judgment with any certainty.
One thing we can say for certain, is that Nieuwenhuis deserves to be playing on an everyday basis for the remainder of the 2014 season. Whether or not Terry Collins will? That remains to be seen, after all he’s “not here to run a tryout camp. [He’s] here to win ballgames.”
He can win ballgames by playing good players. Imagine that.
Joe Vasile is a play-by-play announcer residing in North Jersey. He is the voice of the Wilkes Colonels football and basketball teams. He won the 2014 Coastal Plain League Broadcaster of the Year with the Fayetteville SwampDogs baseball team.
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den Dekker has been pathetic, overall, at the plate, especially in the power department. His numbers so far this year: .219 .315 .272 .587 71 OPS+. And in the last 28 days: .246 .361 .295 .656 92. Still bad power.
Kirk, on the other hand, deserves to play full time. His numbers so far, expanding on the above stats: .271 .373 .518 .890 153. It’s only in 102 PA, but give him a chance. And, as you say, he passes the eye test.
You must be mistaken.
OBP is the thing that leads to runs and we don’t need to take into consideration things like context (ie: slugging percentage, effectiveness of running).
Right Brian?
And the next time someone looks for the definition of trolling – I can point to this post.
OBP is the most important thing but nowhere – let me repeat for emphasis – nowhere did I say it was the only thing.
I agree – you never said it was the only thing.
You simply rejected the idea that context was important.
Again, you are putting words in my mouth.
I said that I preferred high OBP guys. Give me a guy with a .370 OBP in the leadoff spot and I’ll live with whatever his slugging percentage is. That’s my position and if you want to extrapolate from that sentence that context is not important, well I’ll let others make up their mind on what to think.
I read that Kirk will be out of options in 2015.
I see MDD or Kirk as the LHB reserve outfielder in 2015. It would be almost redundant to have both on the major league roster. Right now I favor Kirk but ask me again on April 1, 2015. Kirk should get more playing time this September in order to evaluate further. It would mean sitting Lagares and Granderson some and maybe den Decker once or twice. I value evaluation at this point and currently Kirk’s production is actually an improvement in the lineup. The Mets need a corner outfield upgrade in 2015. The 2015 dilemma may turn out to be, “How deep into the season do you go with an underachieving Granderson?” (But I hope it isn’t). That is just another reason to find playing time and evaluate Kirk but as you stated, TC is still playing for 2014 not the future.
TC will do whatever Sandy tells him to do. That’s why Sandy hired and extended him. When, and if, Sandy decides to replace him, the next guy will do the same.
So it will probably be Geren or Teufel, and almost assuredly not Wally. TC will be rewarded with another job in the organization.
Allowing Kirk to leave this team, especially in favor of Matt Den Dekker, would be one of the most boneheaded moves the team could accomplish.
KN has an ISO of nearly 250. That is among the top 10 or so players in all of baseball. OK, an aberration, its only 102 AB. But he has 524 lifetime PAs and an ISO of 152 – within a shot of players like Adrian Beltre or Jayson Werth this year.
So I would argue that Joe is wrong – KN was 8th on the team for players with 100 PA in 2012, 8th in 2013, and first in 2014. He has had one particular strength, and its been hitting for power. The Mets just choose to ignore it, because you know, there is so much of it on the team and all.
I’m on record before the season began asserting that an outfield that included a RF platoon of Kirk & Brown would out-produce Granderson.
Anyone beg to differ or debate?
Nothing personal against Grandy – he’s a pro’s pro – but don’t try to convince me that a hot weekend in Cincy provides him with a clean bill of health. He’s in Chris Young territory.
Kirk, by contrast, helps the team in so many ways – digging the ball out of the OF corner to start a successful relay, the walk/stolen base/tag-up-to-score, the diving catch, the power bat – he just needs situations in which he’s likely to succeed.
Exact same things can be said about Andrew Brown. They both must’ve learned baseball at the Jerry Grote school of hard knocks. They play the game to win.
A Kirk/Brown platoon would have been more productive than Grandy at a fraction of the cost.
Ugh!!!
ALthough I don’t believe you can do this with wRC+ … here’s a take on your “platoon” versus CG (wRC+ of 100, btw, which means he’s basically league average).
I believe the split between rhp and lhp is something like 75/25%. Take 75% of KN’s wRC+ total of 145 and you get 108. You could therefore add Bartolo Colon’s bat and have him hit against all the LHP, and you’d still outperform CG.
Essentially, 75% of KN plus 25% nothing is greater than 100% of CG.
If you think what Captain Kirk has done over 100 at bats this year is what he would do over a full season, I’ve got a bridge to sell you.
The Mets have lived through a similar-ish decision between Ike and Lucas. I hope SA learned from that. MdD and KN serve the same purpose. I split time in LF through the last games and see how winter and ST goes, then come 1 April, its one or the other.
Either way, this is a fight for bench spot on a playoff contending team.
I really like Kirk’s power and athleticism, but that strikeout rate still has plenty of room to drop before he can really be considered on a more permanent basis.
This pickypicky on the Sabers is ridiculous… ignorance of stats and trends will lose many, many ball games.
If you note a “short production cycle” on Kirk…fine—but can your eyes deny that he’s doing good things that shout for more opportunities? Frankly, he and DD look like great answers as possible 4,5 outfielders—and it wouldn’t surprise me if both became solid rotational players as major leaguers— guys with LH pop, some speed, and a CF Glove have a very long shelf life.