When speaking about the future of the Mets pitching rotation, a lot of names get thrown around. Dillon Gee‘s name usually gets mentioned as a possible fourth or fifth starter, or perhaps even trade bait to help get a left fielder or shortstop. Gee has had an up-and-down year in 2014, partially to blame by a strained lat muscle that saw him miss the second half of May all the way to the beginning of July. Up until that injury, Gee had been pitching much like he did last year when he posted the best numbers of his career.
From Opening Day until May 10th, Gee posted a 2.73 ERA, slightly more than two strikeouts for every walk, and a ridiculously high 84.7 LOB%. Somewhat concerning was his 4.32 FIP, which is “a measurement of a pitcher’s performance that strips out the role of defense, luck, and sequencing” according to Fangraphs. While much higher than his ERA, this elevated FIP was nothing new for Gee. His ERA outperformed his FIP in both 2013 and 2011 as well.
So Gee started 2014 looking like the same pitcher he was in 2013, roughly a league average GB/FB guy who lucked out with good defense behind him, and outside of a few bad control performances, a guy who usually didn’t walk many. Then the lat muscle flared up, and Gee hit the DL. Upon returning to the rotation, Gee has struggled mightily.
Gee’s first start back came on July 9th versus Atlanta, and he was stellar, pitching seven innings of one run baseball. Many hoped this was a return to normal for the righty as playoff hopes flickered in the distance. His next three starts were tough to watch, however. He let up a combined 15 runs in 16.2 innings, and coughed up an uncharacteristic five home runs in three games. His 11 allowed home runs since returning from the DL have driven his HR/9% up to 1.27 for the year, which is the highest total since 2010 when he had a 1.28 HR/9% in 28 starts in Triple-A. From July 9th forward, he still has roughly two Ks per walk, but his BB/9 is 3.19, more than a full run higher than his total rate from last year. His ERA over the same period stands at 4.52, and his FIP is 4.84.
What can we conclude from all this? Unfortunately nothing conclusive. Lat muscles strains are notorious for lingering even after a player has been cleared to return to the field. The lat is normally a strong muscle as it is rather large, and is responsible for several functions, including extending the arm from the shoulder joint, as pitchers tend to do. Therefore when it is strained, it’s hard to give it continued rest. Gee was out for a quite a while, but even a minor irritation might linger for weeks or months and could be affecting him still. For a control type pitcher like Gee who often doesn’t overpower hitters, a small strain can mean the difference in inches of a pitches’ location. Those inches are now serving up home runs that in the past have been fly outs.
Gee’s injury has definitely impacted his overall season, and it comes at a bad time as rotation arms are the one thing the Mets seem to have a surplus of moving forward. His last start versus the Reds was encouraging as he only let up two runs, each on home run, over seven innings with six Ks and one walk. Cincinnati is a home run park, so perhaps we can chalk it up to that. However, Gee is looking more and more like the odd man out of the rotation as he struggles to return to form and the year dwindles away. He’s still a competant pitcher, and he’s been a fan favorite for a while now. But unless he drastically returns to his 2013 ways in his last few starts, necessity may dictate a new uniform for Gee come next spring.
We’d like to think of Gee as a valuable trading chip, but is he? I’m guessing 6 WAR maybe over the next two years is the upside, at a likely cost of $10MM.
He’s one of those guys that definitely is worth more to someone else than he is to us, like a certain SS wannabe, an AS 2B, and controlled power bat in LF/CF. Some combination of Murph, Gee, Flores, KN a/o one of Matz/Syndergaard/Montero should bring back just about whomever you want. That’s a lot of cheap talent.
Nice article Pat ~ especially on the lat.
FG values a unit of WAR at roughly $5.43 million so if Gee gives you 6 WAR at $10 million that’s an incredible value.
Trouble is, Gee currently has a negative fWAR. But since he consistently outpitches his FIP, perhaps we should use rWAR, instead. Here are his yearly rWAR totals, starting in 2011: 0.7, 0.9, 2.2, 1.0
I don’t know if it’s fair to use fWAR values for rWAR but for a moment, let’s pretend that’s okay.
If we say that Gee’s likely value over the next two years is 3 rWAR — he’s still providing significant excess value if his actual contract over that span is $10 million.
He should be a desirable trade candidate. Whether other teams view him that way is not such a sure thing.
Two things – I use bbref, of course, and you like f-g.
Second, that’s *if* he achieves his upside, and its capturing it completely over a two year period. His *combined* WAR for the last two years is 3.2.
So getting 6 WAR over the next two would be doubling what he’s done. Unlikely, to say the least. His trade value isn’t null, but he’s a sweetener, not a trade piece.
Side note: if Gee does, in fact, deliver on the WAR as above, his cost (through arbitration) will skyrocket and reflect that new valuation.
So all you are left with is getting a guy that might be fairly valued off of this year with some upside.
And since the object of making a transaction is to acquire assets at a significant discount to par, why make the deal? I’m not seeing it. But you have long been a Gee guy, and I have not.
I recognize the value in what Gee produces — not sure if that makes me a Gee guy or not. It’s not the way that I would describe myself. I would describe myself as a Montero guy. I gladly tolerate Gee’s existence on the club.
A player rarely gets his full value in arbitration. I think the general rule of thumb is 40/60/80 of his worth in year 1/year 2/year 3 of the arb process.
A good summary of Gee and the lat injury seems to have hurt his 2014 stats.
Gee will be a free agent in 2017 so there are two more years of control.
Gee made $3.6M in 2014 and is 2nd year arb eligible. $5.4M is a reasonable estimate for 2015.
The Mets need to free up some 2015 salary amongst Colon $ 11M, Niese $7M and Gee $5.4 M because they don’t have the fiscal ability to carry a sixth starter as rotation insurance nor the need to with Syndergaard, Montero and Matz in AAA.
A salaried pitcher or two needs to be traded this winter in order to free up some payroll for upgrades at SS and corner outfield. Gee has been a solid back end starter so a rotation that ends up with Gee as a fifth starter would be more than acceptable in 2015.