Earlier this month, Terry Collins announced that Rafael Montero would get at least one more start in the majors this year. True to his word, Collins gave the rookie a start Wednesday night and Montero rewarded his manager with 5.1 scoreless innings and he picked up the win as the Mets swept the Rockies with a 2-0 triumph in the series finale.
In his last two starts, Montero has 12.1 IP, 1 ER and 13 Ks. That’s good pitching for anyone but considering where Montero was over his first five starts (25 IP, 17 ER) the turnaround is remarkable. In a normal world, the response would be to continue to get the rookie additional starts for the remainder of the year. Unfortunately, anyone who follows the Mets on a regular basis knows that normal has little to do with how things operate here.
There’s no obvious choice to remove from the rotation to create a spot for Montero. In this case, going to a six-man rotation would be a reasonable choice. However, Collins is already on record saying that option was not on the table. It might be time to revisit that decision.
In a perfect world, baseball is a meritocracy. It doesn’t matter what or who you are – as long as you produce you get more chances to do the same. After a terrible start to his MLB career, Montero is getting great results as a SP in his last two starts. Why would he not get more chances to prove his worth in his preferred role?
Because of his build, many have speculated that he’s a future reliever. If he winds up in the bullpen because of an inability to hack it as a starter, that’s fine and no one should complain. But if he winds up in the bullpen solely due to some preconceived notion or prejudice – well, that stinks. Then it’s no longer a meritocracy. Instead, that will mean we’ve fallen down the rabbit hole of self-fulfilling prophecies.
Kudos to Collins for giving Montero another start in the majors this year. There must have been something they wanted to see from the rookie. If they wanted to see if his previous start was a fluke, that question should have been answered in a good way. And if his results have not been fluky, why should he not continue to start, especially with the concerns floated about Collins overusing his young starters currently in the rotation?
While Montero should be in the rotation the rest of the season, regardless of where he pitches there are still things for him to work on. The big thing he’s accomplished already is to cut down on his gopher balls allowed. In his first five starts, Montero surrendered 8 HR in 25 IP. In his last two starts, he’s not permitted one ball to leave the yard.
What he needs to work on next is trusting his stuff. Anyone who can strike out 13 batters in 12.2 IP has the stuff to succeed in the majors. But Montero, who prior to 2014 had outstanding control, has really suffered this year with bases on balls. For the Mets, he’s given up 20 BB in 38 IP, including six walks in his last two games.
Montero throws hard enough but his fastball simply does not have a ton of movement. To compensate, he needs to move it in and out, as well as up and down. His final at-bat Wednesday night was a perfect example of this, as he got Nolan Arenado to whiff on a high fastball.
So many of his balls seem to come from trying to make a perfect pitch low and outside. Montero needs to find the happy ground where he doesn’t leave the ball in the middle of the plate when he doesn’t get paint.
But this is part of the growing process for young pitchers. We’ve been spoiled by the immediate success of Matt Harvey and to a lesser extent Jacob deGrom. But those guys are the exceptions that prove the rule. In his first 36 games in the majors, noted control artist Greg Maddux had a 4.1 BB/9. Jon Matlack, who seven times in his career had a BB/9 of 2.3 or less, had a 3.6 BB/9 in his first year in the bigs. Craig Swan had a 4.7 BB/9 in his first 16 games in the majors. The list of rookie pitchers who struggled with command is a long one. Even deGrom walked 10 in his first 19.2 innings.
While not as revered right now as Harvey, deGrom and Zack Wheeler, Montero has the stuff to be part of the dream rotation. The concern with moving him to the bullpen is that he succeeds in the role and, much like with Carlos Torres, gets deemed too valuable to be moved to the rotation.
You never want to put guys in a role less than what they’re capable of delivering. Randy Johnson could have been the greatest LOOGY of all time. Instead, he was utilized as a starter and recovered from early bouts with wildness – 5.7 BB/9 over his first 818 IP – to go on to post 303 Wins in the majors.
The point is not that Montero is the next coming of Johnson because he clearly is not. But given his minor league track record and given how he’s already made progress with his HR rate, the default assumption should not be that he can’t hack it in the majors as a starter. He should continue to be given the opportunity to pitch in the rotation the rest of the year so we have a bigger sample to judge – no different than giving at-bats to Matt den Dekker and Wilmer Flores.
Brian, the target on that specific Arrenado strikeout was low and away. He went up and in. That was shocking, and made me wonder if this kid is nervous. Not trusting his stuff like we heard Familia didn’t early on and Colon had to talk to him. In the minors, Montero’s control was all the raves. What happened?
I would like to see him get another start and he should. Everyone is a little tired at this point in the season and an extra day of rest would be nice. Montero is another option to give the Mets plenty of arms to deal from this winter to find a bat for the outfield.
all the control … I’m not sure where to find it, but it would be valuable to know what his numbers were for swinging strikes, and called strikes in the minor leagues.
The breaking balls, down and away stuff he throws … I could see that fooling minor leaguers and getting him strikes instead of balls in Bing. He’s not really close with most of that in the majors and big leaguers have seen better. Notably, the guy on the other mound last night.
I went back and looked at the strikeout and you’re right — the target was low and away.
I think it’s telling that the called pitch wasn’t successful. It was moving the ball around and delivering a high pitch over the middle of the plate that worked. Was the strikeout luck? Yes, I’d have to say that it was.
So, who’s the one calling for all of these low and away pitches? TDA keeps looking in the dugout, so clearly the fault is not all his. Is it fair to ask a rookie pitcher to consistently shake off his catcher? Why can’t whoever is calling the majority of these pitches allow him to pitch to all areas?
I agree Montero has earned additional starts, it’s just that they might not come in 2014. With Torres being used nearly every day, Montero is the smartest option for long relief for the time being. Once/If we are eliminated from the playoffs, then shut down De Grom and give Montero his starts.
Another start? Sure. Let’s not overreact. I thought he was all over the strike zone yesterday. If they had just one more of Cuddyer/Tulo/Cargo that game would have been an embarrassment. He did get some professional hitters out though.
We’ll keep six or seven starters for next year. I am not sure that he’s one of them.
Almost my exact words from the chatter last night.
Using my real time “eye scouting” I also thought he pitched like crap yesterday. The Rockies away approach is horrendous and it was baffling how many 1 pitch abs he had when it was clear he was having major troubles throwing strikes. It seemed like he only has 2 zones, down and low or up and in. he is afraid to use the middle part of the zone and it was clear to me that he is not ready to pitch at this level this year.
My prescribed treatment is the same as Wright: rest. Let him end on a “high note” this year and hope that he comes into next year rid of the control problems that plagued him this year.
Total Agreement!!!!
Montero’s Contol is really not an issue…it’s about Command itself. He needs to be a bit finer, and he needs an Out Pitch so that he can avoid being “Too Fine”. His control issues are from the need or his perception that he needs to be Very Fine—to get Big Leaguers out! Better Command and Arsenal of a Breaking Ball and Change will go a long way.
I like his pace, his arm, his demeanor. I don’t get the resistance to a 6 man rotation for the balance. Maybe it knocks the other guys off pace—especially Gee and Niese who see to be (finally) settling back to themselves. I could see Degrom Shelved after another start, but I’d like mto see Montero stay in turn.
I agree with most of the opinions that Montero would have been smoked with a better hitting lineup, but it seems like he doesn’t trust his stuff after coming up and giving up some homeruns to pitches left over the plate (Gun-shy?). He seems to have good movement and run on his pitches up, but needs to improve the command overall.
I favor the six man rotation for the remainder of the season. I want to give him as much experience in 2014 because in 2015, when the games should matter, he may be my AAA injury insurance. I currently don’t see him in the majors to start the 2015 season. His last two starts are encouraging and a step forward.