What do the Mets have in Wilmer Flores?

Wilmer Flores has now gotten his first taste of playing every day in the major leagues. Over the past two months, Flores has been a regular in the lineup, first as the everyday shortstop and now, due to David Wright’s injury, as the everyday second baseman while Daniel Murphy fills in at third. Although statistics at the end of a baseball season often need to be taken with a grain of salt, in Flores’ case, the Mets have to be optimistic about the future of the young man who, for so many years, has been hyped as the top hitting prospect in the system.

Flores’ overall numbers are basically average. He’s posted a 660 OPS over the entirety of the season, which would rank him in the lower half in all of Baseball for offensive production at shortstop or second base. However, those numbers are problematic as they are part and parcel the effect of inconsistent playing time. Since he’s been playing every day, Flores has produced a 728 OPS over 170 plate appearances. He’s begun to show some of the pop predicted for him, as he’s stroked nine doubles and five home runs in that span, leading to a 428 SLG and a 164 ISO. That ISO, over a full season, would only have been exceeded this season by Ian Desmond and Jhonny Peralta, while the SLG would have ranked only behind Peralta, Starlin Castro and Hanley Ramirez, while being percentage points ahead of Desmond.

He’s also been extremely difficult to strike out, only doing so at a six percent rate over those same 170 plate appearances. That low strike out rate also gives hope that his offensive numbers can be even better, as he’s only carrying a .282 BABIP, far below the National League average of .325. If Flores was able to match that BABIP, seven hits would be added onto his totals, bring his batting overage to over .300 and his OPS to over 800. For comparison purposes, that would make Flores one of the top two offensive shortstops in baseball this season, only behind Ramirez. When one considers that Flores just turned 23, those numbers are rather remarkable.

One could argue that he has underachieved due to the huge numbers he posted at Triple-A Las Vegas, but using minor league equivalencies, he’s actually right on point for his development. Of course, MLE’s are totally subjective, but they do create interesting statistics that can be used for comparison.  Over the course of two partial seasons and 162 games at Las Vegas, Flores hit .321 with a 903 OPS. Those numbers included 28 home runs, 47 doubles, 207 hits, 112 runs scored and 143 RBI, all while being about five years younger than his competition. Those are staggering numbers, especially when considering his age, but the caveat with Las Vegas and the PCL is that numbers can be vastly inflated. Using MLE’s, those numbers translate to approximately a .253 AVG and a 692 OPS at the big league level, with 166 hits, 33 doubles and 20 home runs. Not as staggering, but pretty good. So far, when Flores has played every day, he has met those expectations. If you pro-rate his numbers to match the at bat’s he posted in Triple-A, he would hit approximately 36 doubles and slug 20 home runs while posting a higher batting average and OPS. Of course, this is all speculation until he actually plays a full season and puts up such numbers, but it is rather remarkable that Flores is, in essence, performing as expected.

Flores also held his own at shortstop this year, posting an above average fielding percentage and a below average range, basically what was expected of him. This has even been shown in the advanced defensive metrics of UZR and Defensive Runs, where he has posted numbers that basically peg him as a league average defender at shortstop. He profiles as a strong bat, average to slightly below average fielder at shortstop, but with the Mets need for hitting, that profiles exactly into their needs. He is probably best suited to play second base, but his offensive numbers would be less substantial at that position. In fact, his 728 OPS would actually be less than the Mets incumbent second baseman, Murphy.

The bottom line is that Flores looks like he’s turning into the player the Mets hoped he would become and the fact that he has shown the ability to stay at shortstop, for now, is an added bonus. In essence, it looks like the Mets have found a starting middle infielder for next season. Where he starts, of course, is the question. If Flores is to stay at shortstop, then they probably need a better fielding second baseman than Murphy. They could get away with the lack of defense if both hit, but long term, the team would benefit more from having a plus fielder at one of the two positions. An interesting idea would be to trade Murphy and sign a player like J.J. Hardy, who would provide better offense then Tejada and help create a far stronger defensive middle of the infield, although this would put Flores in a position where his offense would be of lesser value. Another idea would be to trade for a player like Ben Zobrist, who is under an affordable contract for next year, can play second base and even fill an outfield position if Dilson Herrera proves ready for the everyday second base job as the 2015 season progresses. Of course, they could also package Flores in a deal for a big time bat.

Whichever way the Mets decide to go, it has to be nice to have so many options and have Flores step up as much as he has. There is a long way to go towards saying that the Mets have the player they hoped for as he progressed through the minor league system, but his production so far is a nice start. Let’s hope that Flores finishes strong against Houston this weekend and really gives the Mets a nice piece to work with as the offseason begins.