Mets360 2014 projection review: Chris Young

Next up in our projection review series is Chris Young. Everyone says now that they hated the signing and wanted him gone months before he actually got the axe. Part of the value of doing projections is that they provide a nice snapshot in time, so we can see at least what people on our staff thought in the moment. Here was our official forecast:

PA – 512
AVG – .236
OBP – .318
SLG – .420
HR – 17
RBI – 63
SB – 17

Here’s how Young actually did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group. The bolded numbers below include his time with the Yankees. The Mets waved so long after he put up a .205/.283/.346 line. Of course he went out and provided an .876 OPS in his brief time in the Bronx.

PA – 366
Best – Kolton (348)
Worst – Ferguson (591)

AVG – .222
Best – Walendin (.223)
Worst – Kolton (.279)

OBP – .299
Best – Kolton (.306)
Worst – Flattery (.347)

SLG – .385
Best – Walendin (.391)
Worst – Hangley (.465), Kolton (.305)

HR – 11
Best – Kolton (10)
Worst – Ferguson, McCarthy (22)

RBIs – 38
Best – Koehler (45)
Worst – Ferguson (80)

SB – 8
Best – O’Malley (11)
Worst – Hangley (27)

As a group, our projection was not good at all. Individually, we see some pretty good picks, especially by the group contrarian, Dan. His pessimism was well-deserved in this particular case.

While our group projection was poor, we had a lot of company with the big boys. Our .738 OPS projection was right in line with what the others had for Young, including ZiPS, which forecasted a .730 OPS. Everyone thought he’d produce between 16-19 homers. Steamer and Oliver projected 66 and 67 RBIs, respectively.

The young signing landed somewhere between a calculated risk and a gamble for Sandy Alderson. However you want to phrase it, the bottom line is that it didn’t work out. Many people now claim to have wanted Nelson Cruz but at the time Young signed, few would have predicted Cruz would have accepted a one-year deal. It was only after no market developed that Cruz shifted his sights away from the big pay day.

Of course Cruz delivered a monster year and is one of the biggest reasons the Orioles made the playoffs. Perhaps this will be the year he cashes in with a big multi-year deal. Meanwhile, Young may be looking at an NRI. Mets fans will have to be comforted by the fact that at least he didn’t sign a multi-year deal or one with a player option.