The New York Mets failed to earn a playoff berth in 2014 because they didn’t win enough games.
Oh, you want more? What if I said it was because they didn’t finish above .500?
Still more? The Mets missed getting a ticket to the dance because they were so worried about getting on base they didn’t hit the ball frequently enough or take more than one base on a hit. How about them apples?
It’s true, mathematically speaking in the limited time frame of just this season. New York hasn’t been particularly good in the last several years, but offensive numbers across the league are down as steroid-ripped hitters departed and elite defense returned. The Mets have averaged 708 runs scored a year since 2004, noticeably higher than the 629 they plated this season. And it’s nowhere close to the 834 runs they scored to win the 2006 pennant.
But the 629 runs of the 2014 campaign ranks New York well behind the eight playoff teams from this season – not counting the Oakland Athletics or Pittsburgh Pirates. Angels batters scored the most with 773 runs, Cardinals batters scored the least with 619 runs and the eight averaged almost 697 runs in the season.
For comparison, the Mets pitching and defense was not out of line, even with the misfortunes of Jose Valverde, Kyle Farnsworth and John Lannon. The boys from Flushing allowed 618 runs in 2014; that’s the average from the eight playoffs teams and easily the lowest a Mets team has allowed in the last 11 seasons.
Subtract their defense from their offense, and the 2014 Mets finished +11. That’s way better than the combined 148 run difference from 2011-2013 combined, but in no way are those playoff-caliber numbers. The Nationals recorded the largest run difference with 131 and the Cardinals had the lowest run difference at just 16. The average among the eight playoffs squads was 79.
Anybody who watched a few games this season knows New York’s offense was responsible for their early exit this fall. Let’s start with their on-base percentage – Sandy Alderson’s stat of choice. The Mets finished the 2014 season with a .308 OBP. Major league baseball averaged .314, which is pretty close, and the eight playoff teams averaged .320 – a 3.75 percent difference from the Mets. Even with the Dodgers winning this category with a .333 OBP, New York did alright in getting on base.
However, they were awful at the fundamental task of getting on base via a hit. Offensive-juggernaut Detroit led the majors with a .277 team batting average and the average major league team hit .251 in 2014. But the Mets featured a paltry .239 batting average, more than 11 percent lower than the .260 rate for the playoff teams.
Extra-base hits were also a weakness for the 2014 Mets. The Rockies led the majors in slugging with a .445 number fueled by their mile-high advantage and the average major league squad slugged for .386. New York recorded a .364 slugging percentage, 8.5 percent lower than the .398 slugging rate for playoff teams. And just because, the Tigers finished with the highest slugging percentage – .426 – of the eight teams still playing.
Assuming the pitching and defense doesn’t recess in 2015, and it probably won’t with the return of Matt Harvey and development of Jacob DeGrom and Zack Wheeler, offense will be the focus next season. Getting a big bopper or boosting the power at a few positions might not be a bad move, but simply getting ballplayers who can hit has to be the top priority. Travis d’Arnaud’s late resurgence is a sign of hope, but Ruben Tejada’s .237 batting average and .310 slugging rate aren’t going to cut it in this lineup, especially with David Wright and his balky left shoulder hitting so poorly in 2014.
Getting on base doesn’t wins games. Driving them in does, What was the Met batting average with bases loaded? The Mets are in dire need of a Carlos Delgado type slugger who knows how and is confident in his ability to do so. But those type of players are special and I don’t think SA is willing to trade for one.
The elephant in the room is that the numbers at ” home” are terrible.If you can’t make hay at home you’ll never win anything.They hit well enough on the road if they weren’t abysmal at Citi.
Hey Steevy who’s fault is that? Who built this team to play in Citifield? The good news is we have Granderson and his anemic BA for the next 3 seasons
Mike,
I like your point in the last paragraph about getting players who can hit, as opposed to prioritizing big boppers.
Given the reality of CitiField and the lack of power hitters in the game today(and who are affordable), the Mets need to find gap hitters. Preferably guys with decent speed who won’t embarrass you in the field. With a weak FA field (and the high prices they will command) Sandy Alderson will have to conjure up some trades or give us the spin that the Mets can continue to build from within.
That would mean pinning one’s hopes on MdD, Capt. Kirk, Conforto, Nimmo, Puello, Herrera, Flores etc.
I wouldn’t mind a power hitter and it certainly couldn’t hurt, but the next World Series champions out of Queens will definitely need to swing the bat better, even if it’s just for singles and doubles.
Batting average is the new “black”. If you hit for higher average across the board, then the ducks come home. The idea that a walk is as good as a hit is a nice little league saying, but it’s not a way to win at this level.
The Mets missed the playoffs the minute Matt Harvey couldn’t play baseball.
Matt Harvey gets replaced by Colon. That’s a negative swing of easily 3 Wins, possibly 5.
Worse yet, you are handcuffed now in free agency so Peralta is out of the question. I don’t know that we sign him anyways, given Sandy’s stubbornness, but Peralta is worth 4 wins more than our SS.
I’d also be willing to say that if those guys were part of the team perhaps David isn’t quite so stubborn and needing to be “the man” to carry the team through an injury. Maybe not.
Higher end of that scale, we win 88 games (and potentially, beat the Giants and Pirates in games we lost) and go to the playoffs.
I don’t think you have to go any further than what was obvious to us in March. Matt Harvey.
So Matt Harvey means the Mets are still playing baseball right now? Matt Harvey?
Nope.
Mathematically speaking, the 2014 Mets failed because of their offense. On average, they’re pitching and defense was spot on for postseason play. But assume that somehow Harvey doesn’t have starts spoiled by Valverde & Co. early on and his presence doesn’t block DeGrom, it still wouldn’t be enough. Washington allowed the fewest runs of all eight playoff squads – 555. Know how many runs they scored? 686. The St. Louis Cardinals are the one oddball, scoring just 16 more runs than the 603 they allowed. Pretty sure it’s safe to say they aren’t likely to keep winning playoff games by scoring 10 runs, especially against a Dodger team that scored 99 more runs and allowed just 14 more.
for want of a nail …
Perhaps you only read the last two words of my post ~
Its not only the alpha between Colon and Harvey (which, by the way, you completely do not bring up).
It’s that Harvey’s absence forced Sandy to allocate funds that might have gone to other uses – notably Peralta. And not only does Peralta then perhaps gets us 5.4 WAR, but he also subtracts 5.4 WAR from St. Louis.
And to your point? Valverde? For real? We’re going to say that the combined 40 innings of work of Lannan, Farnsworth and Valverde caused this team to fall apart (not all of which were horrible)? Not to mention that having Harvey might have meant more relief innings for someone other than them(umm, like Dice K)?
Two words. Matt Harvey.
Oh those nails.
To each his own opinion, but I still believe mine has the facts behind it.
The bullpen as a whole was a mess early on. Valverde, Farnsworth, Lannon, Germen, Rice, etc. If by somehow Mejia, Familia and the second half bullpen had the extra stamina and health to pitch the whole season, we’d definitely be over .500.
I didn’t ignore your argument. I just don’t believe that Peralta can single-handedly hit enough, especially with such a pricey contract for an aging player with suspect defense. There weren’t many other options, guess they could have thrown that extra money on Stephen Drew. They weren’t going to spend on Nelson Cruz, jumping on the Chris Young bandwagon early. Would you rather have spent on Shin-Soo Choo? The only positive fiscal aspect of them not having to bring Colon on-board would have been a little more flexibility for taking on a bad contract via trade. But do you think Jeff Wilpon would ever sign off on that?
And at the end of the day, the Mets scored fewer runs than all eight playoff teams. They need a serious infusion of offense, more specifically batters and sluggers. They can worry about taking walks to boost OBP once they can actually hit the d**n ball.
Enjoy your weekend.
I’ll start off with a pet peeve of mine. Why the hell are people comparing NL teams to AL teams? One has a DH, the other does not. Of course AL teams are going to score and allow more runs.
Secondly, people need to put on their biases aside and look at the hard stats. For a team whose “strength” was supposed to be SP, they ranked 8th out of 15 in ERA while playing in one of the most pitcher friendly parks. SP was not a strength in 2014, and as a matter of fact hasn’t been better than league average for the past 4 years.
Meanwhile, the offense also managed to rank 8th in the league, but considering they were supposed to be among the worst, should be considered a success.Their 629 runs was only a tick behind the NL average of 640, all while playing in a pitcher’s friendly park.
The real reason why the Mets missed the playoffs?
The SP.
They were supposed to be above average and carry them and instead they were only quite ordinary.
I didn’t put the full list in the story, but I’ll attach part of it here.
BAL scored 705 runs and allowed 593 runs
DET scored 757 runs and allowed 705 runs
LAA scored 773 runs and allowed 630 runs
KC scored 651 runs and allowed 624 runs
WAS scored 686 runs and allowed 555 runs
STL scored 619 runs and allowed 603 runs
LAD scored 718 runs and allowed 617 runs
SFG scored 665 runs and allowed 614 runs
NYM scored 629 runs and allowed 618 runs
Sure the Mets ranked 8th in the NL in runs, which is still below average, but they were terrible in most other categories. They had the third fewest hits in the NL, their slugging was 12th and their OPS was 11th. The Mets offense was in the bottom third of the NL alone.
Mike What Jerry Grote means is that the Mets don’t go out and sign Colon to 20 Million or CY to 7.25 million and apply that money towards a big bat instead of taking 17.25 million for 2 average players in Colon and CY. It completely changed the priorities for this past off season.
I enjoyed the article Mike and how you identified and simplified the Met path to the playoffs. They need to score more runs while maintaining their pitching and defense. Indications are that Murphy and his 110 wRC+ will be traded which only exasperates the problem. The Mets will need to package Murphy and quite possibly Niese for an outfielder with a 130+ wRC+ and hope Flores or Herrera step up at second base to be average. The other improvement will be at shortstop where they have to move Colon and his salary in order to afford a better that average shortstop.
These moves should make the Mets playoff quality and get them the one game but the Nats are still way ahead and even those moves are not going to get the Mets ahead of them.
Metsense if you could get Collins to stop over managing the pen That! would definitely be another step in the right direction.