There haven’t been any conclusive studies, but many fans (myself included) will tell you that age 27 is the average age for when a player “breaks out”. Of course, there are exceptions to this rule, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw, etc. Maybe breakout isn’t what we are looking for. Maybe we should look for when players traditionally hit their peak of baseball output. An article written in 2009 by Mitchel Lichtman of the Hardball Times (http://www.hardballtimes.com/how-do-baseball-players-age-part-1/) suggests that for most players in the modern era (1980-current) peak at or around age 26/27 and plateau until around age 30, when the stats start a downward trend. Obviously, there are exceptions to this rule, but this is just an average and remember, a downward trend from a very high peak is still an above average peak. So where am I going with this? Well, armed with this knowledge, how can we use it to potentially map out the 2015 Mets?
For one, the study noted that the greatest leap happened not from age 26 to 27, but from age 25 to age 26. Who happens to be turning 26 next season? Only 2 of the most important Mets offensive players, Juan Lagares and Travis d’Arnaud. Lagares greatly improved his hitting from 2013 when he was just 24, to 2014 when he was 25. In fact, his wRC+ jumped from 76 to 101, meaning he went from 24% worse league average to 1% above average. I’m not suggesting a similar jump for Lagares next season, but history has shown that on average, his offensive production will increase, and should increase by a significant margin. The Steamer projection for Lagares does not really agree with this, but it wouldn’t be the first time Lagares outperformed projections. Even still, it projects to an 86 wRC+, which is probably where we expected him to land after his 2013 season.
The same can be said for Travis d’Arnaud. After an extremely mediocre 2013 in which he was hurt for a large majority of the season and a very poor start to 2014, it looked as if d’Arnaud would be a huge bust. Instead, he started putting it together. A 61 wRC+ in 2013 (small sample of just 112 PAs) jumped all the way to a 103 wRC+ in 2014. That’s even including his absolutely horrendous statistics until he was demoted to AAA. The Steamer projection even agrees, with a 111 wRC+ and a 3.2 WAR for the season in just 128 games played.
But what about the pitching side? Is age the main reason for Jacob deGrom’s breakout season? He did turn 26 last year, and finally seemed to put everything together. In fact, he was better pitching for the Mets than he was at any level of minor league ball at any point in his career. Based on the study, there is a chance he could get better going from age 26 to age 27, but it’s more of a plateau, meaning this is the peak he has reached. And that’s fantastic news– he’s peaking at the perfect time for the Mets. The steamer projection for deGrom is very flawed, as it takes into account 3 years of data and deGrom was coming off Tommy John surgery in 2011. Chances are, I see him plateauing where he is now, which is fantastic because even if he’s around 90% of what he was in 2014 he’s still roughly a 4+ fWAR pitcher.
Here comes the most troublesome projection. Who will be better, Zack Wheeler or Matt Harvey? Harvey was amazing in 2013, putting up exactly 6.0 fWAR in just 26 starts. Another 6 starts would have pushed him up closer to 7.5. He’s had over a full season to come back from Tommy John so barring another setback he should be ready to pitch and possibly throw even harder, which should scare opposing batters. It’s hard to project coming off a surgery like Tommy John. Wheeler on the other hand, is making the leap from age 24 to 25, which has the 2nd biggest average leap based on the Hardball Times study. Wheeler didn’t have quite the leap Harvey did from age 23 to age 24 but it was still a significant leap and sometimes players do make that jump a little bit later in their career. Wheeler also didn’t pitch in college, whereas Harvey did. Again, Steamer projections for pitchers aren’t always the greatest, especially when one is coming off Tommy John. I’m confident in Wheeler being a 3-win pitcher next season, based on how he pitched in the 2nd half of the season. His K rate increased and his BB rate decreased, not by a significant margin, but one that helped his ERA drop almost a full run from the 1st half to the 2nd half. I still think Harvey has the higher ceiling here, but it’s possible that Wheeler’s floor might be higher than Harvey’s.
All in all, I think the Mets ceiling in 2015 is very high. You’ll be seeing a lot more articles from me during the offseason as to why I think next year is the beginning of the next Mets dynasty.
Marc, as usual, this was a good piece of work.
However, your last word in the article left me sort of baffled.
First, how do you define dynasty? The Mets have probably never had a dynasty if you use a definition benchmarked by the Yankees.
How many years—how much success?
Second, did you take into account the “legendary” Wilpon budget?
As peak or plateau players reach their arbitration or FA years will the Mets trade them or let them walk because of monetary restrictions? If ownership continues to limit the budget as in recent years, and given the large amounts of cash throughout MLB, it’s hard to see the Mets creating a dynasty.
Because everyone is young and still under arbitration, most of the team will be under control til at least 2018. By the time a lot of players are free agents, the next wave of potential prospects should be ready. Dominic Smith hopefully replaces Dude, Nimmo and Comfort in the OF… Etc. They are built like the Rays in that they can compete much cheaper. A few years of cheap payroll and the Wilson’s should be able to recover. At least, we hope.
I agree Marc, but again a few things still have to go in the Mets favor like the development of Wheeler, d’Arnaud and the young prospects looking to replace in the future. Plus, if these young pitchers perform as we hope, arbitration contracts will start to take a big chunk out of the budget.
Before he signs a contract with the Mets.
badaboom!!!!!
Thanks Marc for another fine article containing useful information. I am sure that many fans and baseball people dismiss this research.
Conclusions that I draw are that a strong farm system, like the Mets have, is essential in order to have players that are peaking at age 26 and plateau until 30.
In order to maintain and increase the pool of young players on your team it is necessary to trade the established 30 year old players for prospects. Of course your farm system will need to have players in waiting to take up the established players position. The Mets are not quite at this point yet.
Most free agents come onto the market at age 30 or older and that is why many of the contracts are overvalued and long term because teams are paying for a players past peak performance and getting the player’s declining years instead. These are the riskier contracts and should try to be avoided if possible. Short term free agent contracts to fill the voids that the farm system can’t immediately fill seems like a better way to go. It is a reason that a Cuddyer type player would work well for the Mets.
A strong general manager with leadership abilities that can implement a plan for the organization is essential to achieve a playoff contending team each year. It really isn’t the name on the back of the uniform, it is the name on the front.
Good article, and I agree with the power of youth. The problem with the Mets and their reign of terror is the competition.
The Mets may never have an OF as good as Yelich/Ozuna/Stanton – and not one of them is 25 yet, plus they’ve solved the SS problem. The top three young pitchers in Miami will give Harvey/Wheeler/JDG a run for the money.
And the Braves have locked up some of the very best talent in baseball at *24 years old*, and all they have to do is find a way to keep one more cornerstone. Julio Teheran is a stud.
Washington has their own youthful core, in the OF, pitching, bullpen, infield.
I might argue that the *major league* credentials of our opponents young talent exceeds ours. And everything in team sports starts with taking care of business in your own division.