If you look at the current payroll for the 2015 Mets, you’ll notice that because of arbitration, the Mets only have 4 players that have a guaranteed salary: David Wright, Curtis Granderson, Bartolo Colon and Jon Niese. Everyone else is due for arbitration. That’s pretty amazing. You generally only see that 2 or 3 years in the future, but the Mets only have Wright signed long term (til 2020). So, while the Mets have “money to spend”, which is to say as much as the Wilpons will allow, they need to spend it wisely.
So who do the Mets have a good chance of locking up with a Madison Bumgarner or Andrelton Simmons type deal? We can probably write off Matt Harvey, unfortunately. Harvey is represented by Scott Boras, and he almost never has his clients sign a deal to buy a few extra seasons of free agency for some guaranteed money up front. What about players that are not in the Mets plans once they hit free agency, either because it’s too late now to sign them cheap (Daniel Murphy) or because they have a lot of talent there in the minors (Ruben Tejada)? Falling into this category with Murphy and Tejada are guys like Bobby Parnell, Dillon Gee, Eric Young Jr. (who is a candidate to not even be tendered a contract), and I would even argue Lucas Duda, as the Mets have a few candidates to replace him by the time he can be a free agent in 2018.
So who does this leave? (Note: players not in any special order)
- Juan Lagares
- Zack Wheeler
- Jacob deGrom
- Jenrry Mejia
- Jeurys Familia
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Wilmer Flores
- Dilson Herrera
We can probably write off Flores and Herrera because we haven’t seen enough of them, and also Mejia and Familia because you generally don’t want to lock up relievers long term. Now we are down to Lagares, Wheeler, deGrom and d’Arnaud. In a perfect world, I think all 4 should be locked up now. Lagares plays all world defense, Wheeler and deGrom and both young pitchers who have shown they can pitch for a MLB team and d’Arnaud was a top 10 catcher since his Vegas stint. All of them are on the team with the Mets until 2020 anyway, so why would the Mets want to sign them? Because if you want to build a dynasty, these are the kind of players you lock up. Look at the Yankees and their core four. They played for nearly 17 years together. Other teams have successfully signed players for many years and will benefit greatly in the future. Teams like the Braves, who have Freddie Freeman, Andrelton Simmons and Julio Teheran all signed to at least 2019. And in 2019 they will combine for just around $45 million of salary. Or how about the World Champion San Francisco Giants, who have World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner until team control until 2019 at incredibly team friendly salaries (2018/2019 option years have a maximum value of $16 million if he wins a Cy Young, and $14 million if he finishes in the top 3 in any year of the contract).
So why would a player want to take this kind of deal? What’s in it for them to give up salary in the future, isn’t that bad? Well, there is always a risk in these kinds of deals. What if Juan Lagares suffered a horrible leg injury (knock on wood!) and couldn’t play CF like he does now? Wouldn’t he have loved guaranteed money up front just to hedge against his future health? You can’t ever bank on always being healthy (look at Kevin Youkilis) or being good (Ryan Howard). Ryan Howard was a genius to sign when he did, because his extension didn’t even kick in for 2 years after he signed it. He was almost guaranteed to be on the decline! So clearly, you can’t make a stupid deal like that if you are Sandy Alderson, and I don’t think he would.
Here is what I would offer a player based on similar signings made by other teams:
- Jacob deGrom – 6 years $30 million & 2 option years. This is closer to a deal like Chris Archer has gotten, but for a little less money. deGrom I think is a bit riskier than Wheeler because he’s older and he’s already needed Tommy John once. That is why I offered him less money for more years.
- Zack Wheeler – 5 years $35 million & 2 option years. That is the same amount of guaranteed years Bumgarner signed for, but I would probably change the amount of money in the 2 option years to be higher. This allows the Mets to guarantee his salary at the same exact level at Bumgarner.
- Juan Lagares – 7 years $60 million with no option years. It was hard to find a comparable player for Lagares, but Andrelton Simmons comes close. The amount of value Lagares adds with his glove makes this deal more than worth it. Any hitting he does is a plus.
- Travis d’Arnaud – 6 years $40 million & 1 option year. I modeled this contract after Brian McCann’s first deal with Atlanta. Granted, McCann was a lot younger than d’Arnaud, but the value is still there especially because catching wasn’t as much of a premium in 2007 as it is now thanks to increased PED testing. McCann’s deal was also back in 2007 so I increased the dollar amount to what I thought would be a fair deal in 2015.
Now, I wish we could sign Harvey to a long term deal as well, but I see him more likely signing a deal closer to the end of his arbitration years just to guarantee those salaries, which is what some players like Tim Lincecum, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder have done. I believe with these 4 locked up, the Mets can build themselves a nice future.
Unless Bernie Madoff has a cousin with a “nice investment return”, the Mets aren’t locking up anybody in the near future. What you propose is smart and totally doable for any other team, but until the huge loan the team has coming up is addressed, the Mets will only look for cheap, not smart payroll options.
I would give Duda 4 years at 40 million
Agree on Lagares. Willing to wait another season on both d’Arnaud and DeGrom. We may want Plawecki more, and i think how well Harvey pitches will in some ways help set DeGrom’s true value.
Wheeler – I’d go a little higher in order to buy out one extra year. 6 years, 50 mil.
The Mets have three of their top four pitchers as TJ survivors. Sorry Charley, no long term contracts for you.
TdA already owns a history of concussions, and Lagares plays too lose and dangerous.
If Wheeler delivers next year in a good way, he’s first. Second would be actually Herrera.
Sounds like a good plan to me.It probably is a good idea to lock up Flores too because I think we haven’t even seen his full hitting potential.Tha’ts a gamble I take.The big question right now thought is do we move or sign Murphy.I like Murph and his bonehead plays are way down and he is holding his own at second now.I would try to sign him cheap first like 8 million per.I don’t get why everyone is so down on Murphy his defense has improved.
Because you can’t sign him cheap. It’s too late. He has one arbitration year left and that’s it.
Duda if he’ll take an offer where the money’s right, that way he wont be difficult to trade IF the prospects pan out… None of the others are close enough to harb let alone FA and have not proven themselves long enough to take the risk.
I agree Blaiseda, I don’t see any extensions happening. However, if the Mets are competitive this year fueled mainly by our younger guys, look for extensions galore next winter.
Marc another fine article and I firmly believe in the concept of extensions. Your researched examples make a compelling argument. I would prefer to wait until a player’s first arbitration year before I offered an extension, even if it costs a little more money in the long run. It allows the team to make a better evaluation of the player’s ability and health. The player is still cash poor at that time and should still be open for an extension, especially if there is a team winning environment. Taking the extension concept a step further, I would trade any player after their fifth year who didn’t take an offered extension or management did not offer an extension too. Losing a player to free agency is too much of an asset not to cash in on. I agree that extensions should generally not be offered to relief pitchers.
Therefore Duda is the only player that I would offer an extension to this winter.(you can always trade the player on an extension if a prospect forces his way onto the team)
Murphy is already too expensive to offer an extension and the Mets have depth at second base to replace him. This is why Murphy should be moved this winter. Gee, EY Jr, and Tejada are not good enough to be offered extensions to.
I would think to sign a player and “lock” him in is twofold. One is you as a team GM and owner feel that the player is essential to building your winning team as you stated and second you don’t have anyone in the minors who can readily replace him. Today the Mets do not have the financial resources to lock anyone. Since the Mets have Plawecki knocking on the door in Las Vegas there is no need to lock TdA. Knowing someone is almost ready to replace you is a good motivator and catchers are vulnerable to injuries. If the Mets truly have the financial resources then I would agree with 3 out of the 4 players you listed. But if I were their agent I would never agree to any terms. Young talented pitchers are a rare commodity who can pitch consistently (especially here in NY) Wheeler will harness his control issues and will want mega bucks a la Harvey. Finally we don’t know what goes on behind closed doors. I wonder what the Met players and their agents think about giving the miserly Wilpons a break.
Right and there are risks on both sides. What if a player has a career ending injury and can’t play anymore?
What if a player just suddenly stinks and is out of the league by the time they hit arbitration?
There is definitely a benefit to players taking more money up front because it is all guaranteed. Otherwise, why would many players sign deals like this? Look at the list of players who have signed deals like this: Madison Bumgarner, Evan Longoria, Andrelton Simmons, Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt, Troy Tulowitzki, even Mets players like David Wright and Jose Reyes have signed deal like this.
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So that’s about 10 players out of how ? In how many years? I think you have to judge each player and their circumstances individually. Are you saying it’s a trend because of x amount of players doing what you stated? I know there are more players you did not mention but I would assume none (or any) of those players have Scot Boras as their agent. We all know the elephant in the room and the inability the Wilpons have to expand their payroll. So while it may be prudent to sign some of the players you listed its doubtful it can happen unless the Mets dump some salary.
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I mentioned that Matt Harvey has Bocas as an agent, which is why I did not include him.
And the payroll wouldn’t expand much beyond what these players will likely earn through arbitration anyway.
The Mets would need to unload salary in order for any of your projections to work. If they do not non-tender any of the 11 potential arbitration cases, their payroll will probably reach 80 million for 15 players. That leaves you with 10 roster spots filled by league minimum wages. Add another 5 million and you end up with a payroll in the 85 million dollar range. No room for any of the signings you talk about. I thought Boras prefers to go to arbitration for his clients in order to max out potential earnings? Do you have any examples where any of his clients signed extended deals?
I know the policy. I only did it because Mr. Melton did it in his response to me. Consistency please for both sides.