What the world needs now … is not another Michael Cuddyer post.
We’ve run two stories already on the Cuddyer signing and it’s been a tug of war for me debating on putting in my two cents. At the end of the day my decision was to go ahead because there were points not made in the others that needed to be said. Anyone suffering from burnout on the topic is free to click on another article here at the site.
Cuddyer may be the hero Gotham deserves but he’s not the one it needs right now. So we’ll skewer him. Because he can take it. Because he’s not our hero.
There’s no trouble listing Cuddyer’s strengths. He’s two years removed from winning the batting title, he provides the threat of righty power to the lineup. He’s universally praised for being a great teammate. And perhaps most importantly, he’s friends with David Wright and isn’t it well past time for the organization to make a personnel move with the welfare of its star player in mind? Shoot, they once signed Mike Glavine to a contract. It seems to me that Wright is more deserving of this type of preferential treatment than anyone who’s ever worn the Mets’ uniform.
The intangibles are through the roof. That’s nice. But what about production between the lines?
In the last three years, Cuddyer has played 280 games, or an average of 93-plus games per year. Fans are leery of acquiring Troy Tulowitzki because of his injury problems but he’s averaged just five fewer games per year over the same three-year span. Yet in those fewer games, Tulowitzki has produced 11.8 fWAR compared to 4.5 for Cuddyer. And of course, Tulowtizki is five and a half years younger.
On one level it’s silly to compare Cuddyer to Tulowitzki because not only do the play different positions but Cuddyer was available for cash while Tulowitzki would have cost more money and prospects, too. So let’s compare Cuddyer to what was already on hand for the Mets in the outfield.
Last year in an injury-plagued season, Cuddyer put up 1.5 fWAR in 2014. The Steamer projections are out and it predicts Cuddyer to be relatively healthy, playing in 122 games (527 PA) in 2015. Unfortunately, it projects him to produce a paltry 0.9 fWAR in that span.
Meanwhile, last year Matt den Dekker, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Eric Young combined for 2.8 fWAR in 620 PA. The Steamer projections for this year has that trio for 489 PA and a 0.8 fWAR.
A systematic projection system, based on years of research and comparing historical trends of players, forecasts Cuddyer to be no better than the three-headed monster of den Dekker, Nieuwenhuis and Young – despite forecasting more playing time for Cuddyer!
And we’re supposed to be happy about this signing – thinking that somehow it’s going to propel the team into the playoffs?
Now, to be clear, Steamer projections are not infallible and should not be treated as gospel. But anyone who looks at those forecasts and doesn’t have a cold shiver go down their spine isn’t very aware. The conventional wisdom is that if Cuddyer is healthy that he’ll produce. But here’s a systematic, non-biased forecast that shows him playing around 85% of a full season and saying he’s going to be about as productive as what den Dekker gave the club in fewer than 200 PA in 2014.
The pessimists have a data point showing why this was a bad signing. Then you factor in Cuddyer’s age, his recent playing time issues, his horrible defense, his contract and the fact that the Mets had to surrender a first-round pick to get him and one doesn’t have to squint too hard to see this move being even worse than the Chris Young signing a year ago that horrified many people at the time it was made and the rest of us after watching him play for the Mets.
And this signing all but guarantees that Juan Lagares and his lifetime .302 OBP will be in the leadoff spot for the Mets. The three worst teams in the NL last year in terms of OBP from the leadoff spot in the order were the Cubs (.303), Reds (.298) and Padres (.292). The Reds finished 12th in the league in runs scored from the leadoff spot, the Cubs 14th and the Padres 15th.
Lloyd Christmas: Hit me with it! Just give it to me straight! I came a long way just to see you, Mary. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?
Mary Swanson: Not good.
Lloyd Christmas: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?
Mary Swanson: I’d say more like one out of a million.
[pause]
Lloyd Christmas: So you’re telling me there’s a chance… YEAH!
So, we’re left rooting for Cuddyer to ignore Father Time and remain productive, ignore Mother Nature and stay healthy, ignore the ghost of outfield Lucas Duda and be passable defensively all while not being swayed in moving from the hitter’s paradise of Coors Field to the neutrality of Citi Field.
What could possibly go wrong here?
This is the second consecutive season Alderson has leaped at the opportunity at signing his projected target. What happened to the patient master who could out- wait those impatient imbeciles who would run out to make a splash before the GM winter meetings? Was I the only one thing that this was CY Part II? So maybe it’s an upgrade? But Alderson needed to find the Keith Hernandez type player who was going to propel this team into the playoffs. A safe signing? Probably. But he could of done so much better If Met fans had a hard time watching Duda in LF, can’t wait for the moans and groans for Cuddyer. He’s 36! Again so that we all open our eyes and not keep them closed with wishful thinking of what he may or may not produce. Alderson needed to sign or trade for an impact player who would of brought his team to the next level and compete not only for a playoff spot but for the division title as well. He had an opportunity and he squandered it just like he did last season with CY. I’m sure if he had traded for Kemp or Bautista Wright would of been just as happy (if not happier). Glad you put your thoughts on the Cuddyer signing out there Brian,
Cuddyer said that if the Mets weren’t ready to sign him, he would have accepted the QO, and who can blame him?
Alderson said that he wanted to add a good hitting right handed outfielder without giving up his young arms, so this was the best he can do with his budget.
Can’t say that I’m excited, but won’t say that I’m upset. I just hope he plays at least 120 games each year (because I expect an injury and also want MDD to get some burn).
I think everyone is downplaying the affect of having Cuddyer around will have on Wright and the team. Haven’t we heard the game is 50% mental? Leadership isn’t taken into consideration when evaluating a player, but it can be more important than his production if it makes all the others better.
he had to rush to sign Cuddy because of the QO from the Rockies if the Mets didnt make an offer before the Monday deadline he would have accepted. Ideally i think SA would have waited to play this card, but he couldn’t
I think SA got outsmarted by Colorado and their ability to read the market correctly. I would’ve let the Rockies sign him and looked elsewhere. At that point the Rockies would be paying Cuddyer 15.3 million for what projects to be below average production (even when healthy). They wouldn’t be able to move him until the trading deadline and then that’s assuming he wasn’t on the DL
I totally agree with Pete. I have always thought the fix was in and that Colo knew that the Mets would sign Cuddy even if it was going to cost them a 1st round pick. Had the Mets held off, a secondary benefit would have been the Rockies perhaps having too many OFers and too much of their payroll dedicated to them. A less than top arm might have been able to be used to acquire an OFer that for millions less would have provided equal offense and better defense than Cuddyer . All that benefit plus one hasn’t thrown away a 1st round pick.
Gus is just goes to show you how tight the budget is. Moving Niese just means you’re swapping his salary for MC’s. Which is understandable. So we’ll just have to wait and see if there are any more moves coming this off season. I’m not upset with the move. It’s just that I’m not convinced it was necessary. With so many other options out there (L.A.?)
Juan Lagares, when facing LHP, has a remarkable performance of 387/488. And batting leadoff he’s produced a .329 OBP. I do not know how much of that .875 OPS was accomplished batting leadoff against LHP. Given that the progression of Mr. Lagares has already surprised you, Brian, perhaps you shouldn’t be so quick to degrade him further.
Insofar as Cuddyer goes, his defense was not something I had taken into account in my initial glee. Nonetheless, I am not in the least concerned with “overpaying” for his production. No matter who the Mets picked up, they were going to overpay almost certainly. It is the functional matter that free agents represent a bidding war and the “winner” is in fact, the loser. You have agreed to pay more than anyone else would have paid. There are no real Nelson Cruz’s in the world, so let’s get that out of our minds.
The going rate for a professional hitter, over the last few years, has been around $8 to $15MM a year. If the guy can play defense and has been healthy, the higher end (Hunter/Beltran). If only 1B and not healthy, the lower end (Morneau). And the price every year has been going up.
The hapless triumvirate likely had a production of something like a 600 OPS against LHP. Funny you should have failed to mention that. We need to get them out of the lineup. Getting someone that can play both 1B and corner OF was a bonus.
Cuddyer had a bad year last year, in terms of health. The previous three years he averaged 123 games, making him about as reliable as most major league players. As reliable as David Wright. Only four Mets players were able to get into the lineup that many games last year. I think it’s reasonable that he’ll get us about 120 games.
I like our chances. I especially like the chances that the incremental wins he will provide will be important to the Mets, and that he will help take the bat out of the hands of incompetents.
End of the day, given the limited alternatives in free agency this was a fair enough move.
I agree with everythign in this respeonse and would like to add… he’s a veteran with multiple Playoff experiences, hes a leader, he wants to win now, he’s talking about winning and winning a lot… how many other Mets do you hear that language from? Harvey but he’s not a veteran. Not even DW talks about having a passion for winning. All FA signings are a risk it’s just a matter of sizing up the risks versus the potential reward. If Cuddy is a bust, it doesn’t cripple us for the Future.
The Mets are a financially restricted team therefore I am content with the Cuddyer signing. I would have preferred waiting and investigating trades for an OF but the QO added urgency to the signing. The Mets should still obtain a right handed hitting utility outfielder in order to balance the bench and allow Cuddyer to play 1B vs LHP.
The Mets lack of a OBP leadoff man is a concern and your examples show the reasons why. Lagares could lead off vs LHP. If the Mets signed Lowrie for example, who has a career .323 OPS vs RHP, then they could use him at lead off the other times. Aoki would have been an excellent lead off batter but I prefer Cuddyer and his better power to Aoki and his OBP.
Cuddyer is a piece to the team and alone not the solution to the playoff puzzle.
Cuddyer’s Fan Graphs/Steamer Info
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1534&position=OF
Interesting stuff on WAR—if Cuddyer was a DH Only (and that’s what the stats beg for!—if they’re correct), he’d be an amazing addition.
It’s sometimes difficult to accept the season by season Defensive Stats, but the longer term defensive stats do tend to paint a fairly accurate picture of a guy who hurts you in the field. He may be more easily hidden playing next to Lego, but he’s still an “extra out giver” with the glove.
The Mets have an extraordinary number of players who give away outs offensively and defensively. Their slow base runners (Duda and Flores) are also Bad Base Runners. Murphy is an average speed guy…and an Awful Base Runner. The C-SS/2b-1b combo is Scary on Defense! The outfielders are probably “survivable” as a unit—but Cuddyer is gonna struggle and Grandy still can’t throw the ball—- not much of a picture for those of us who may still value the “less visible opportunities and exposures” of players when they’re not holding a bat.
This is all somewhat contradictory to building around Pitching…. they will will need a good deal of camouflage and luck.
BTW, Brian, well written but depressing article. Thanks. I understand Steamer is into the crystal ball business, but I think that Cuddy got ripped off. And if his WAR is 0.9 with negative defense, that means his oWAR is going to be much higher while the other guys all have positve dWAR to show that their offense will be much lower, and, we, really, need, offense. So, I’m just holding breath…
Thanks Man!
I was shocked when I saw the projection and if given the chance, I’d probably bet the over. But he could put up a 1.2 fWAR, beat the projection and still be a disappointment.
The thing is that Cuddyer would make an awesome super sub, the guy that Metsense is talking about above to balance the bench. If we could give him EY’s 2014 role of 316 well-timed PA that might be a perfect fit.
Anyway, I’m thinking he’ll be an easy guy to root for and I hope more than anything that he gets off to a quick start and becomes a fan favorite.
Regarding Cuddyer and his “fWAR”. I’ll profess my ignorance as to the specifics of this measurement/stat. However- I do think I understand enough to posit: The real measurement of Cuddyer’s potential contribution is properly measured against *who he is replacing*, versus what the other alternatives might have existed to fill the Mets need for a LF. In other words- Sandy took a safe and reasonable course to put a guy out there who was better than what he had. So, *if* Cuddyer stays healthy- how does his projected fWAR stack up against what the Mets had in LF last year. Can anyone answer that question? tnx
From TFA
“Last year in an injury-plagued season, Cuddyer put up 1.5 fWAR in 2014. The Steamer projections are out and it predicts Cuddyer to be relatively healthy, playing in 122 games (527 PA) in 2015. Unfortunately, it projects him to produce a paltry 0.9 fWAR in that span.
Meanwhile, last year Matt den Dekker, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Eric Young combined for 2.8 fWAR in 620 PA. The Steamer projections for this year has that trio for 489 PA and a 0.8 fWAR.”
So for 8 million more we have a forecast of potentially the same results?
And don’t forget the $12.5 million owed in 2016.
Cuddyer is 36. Giving him 1 day off every 10 days (just for example) and letting one of the kids play is not going to kill the Mets. If they play 18 inter league games, that’s 9 games where he can DH and have a day off defensively. I would like to think that TC would replace him in the ninth with a lead. It’s feasible and manageable. Hopefully TC can understand that. The Mets need Cuddyer on the field not on the DL.
I’d be shocked if he played 9 days out of 10. I think he will get more regular rest, and will very often come out in the 7th or later for a defensive replacement. Add in some ABs at first, and the DH time, and I think the Mets can manage his health throughout the season.
Since the basis of your argument predicates around the Steamer projection, it begs the question, how reliable is this projection?
Do you know if there are any verification scores for it? Is it any better than my guess or your’s or the Mets360 consensus projections?
Also, is there a place to find old Steamer projections?
It’s certainly better than my guess or your guess.
Here’s a link to their projections from 2010 to 2013:
https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0B8pqC_HP7r_qNkZxRW15ZllKYTQ&usp=sharing
Here are some projection review articles I was able to find. Steamer comes out pretty good in these:
http://blog.rotovalue.com/2013-projection-systems-review-woba/
I seem to recall reading another one a couple of years ago that raved about their pitching forecasts but I can’t seem to find that now.
Bottom line is that they’re good but they’re hardly perfect.