This is the time of year where optimistic fans believe every question mark is going to be answered positively while analysts think the vast majority will be answered in a negative way. And let’s be honest, the 2015 Mets have no shortages of question marks. There’s not a player on the team without baggage of some sort. Even Daniel Murphy has the “Will he even still be here?” stigma attached to him.
So, let’s pretend that Santa has decided that you’ve been a good child this year and is willing to grant you a wish for your favorite team. He’s going to give you the power to pick one player to make 32 starts or play 150 games. Now, he makes no promises how the chosen player will perform in those games, only that he’ll play a full season.
Who do you pick?
We’ve never seen 32 starts in a season from either Jacob deGrom or Matt Harvey. Michael Cuddyer, Juan Lagares and David Wright all had injury-shortened seasons in 2014. Travis d’Arnaud and Wilmer Flores are young players who’ve never had the chance to play a full season in the majors. It’s a little overwhelming with all of the choices out there.
Perhaps the best thing to do is to eliminate guys from the discussion. Both Lucas Duda and Curtis Granderson played 150+ games last year and it seems silly to waste your wish on one of those two. Duda’s a key guy for the club but he’s been pretty healthy (knock on wood) during his career. Granderson has played 136 or more games in eight of the last nine seasons and topped 150 six times in that stretch.
Murphy didn’t reach 150 games last year but has averaged over 153 games the past three years. Plus, if he were to go down, the Mets have options at the position. It seems Lagares should be eliminated from consideration for the same reason. If he were to go down, the Mets have reasonable replacements with Matt den Dekker and Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Plus, keep in mind there’s no guarantee about performance. While Lagares’ defense is as close to a given as possible, the jury’s still out on that BABIP.
It’s enticing to pick one of the pitchers. Yet with Harvey coming off surgery, there’s no guarantee that he will be his same dominating self in 2015. And while deGrom was dominating down the stretch this past year, five of his last eight games were against teams below .500 and the three teams he faced with winning records put up 10 ER in 19.1 IP (4.66 ERA) against him. Plus, there is some depth with starting pitching, which makes it even less desirable to spend the wish on a rotation guy.
If we could count on 2013 Wright, he’d be the answer with no questions asked. But it’s hard to sweep last year’s .698 OPS under the rug. Yes, he was playing while injured, there’s no doubt about that. Still, it’s hard to assume he’s still an elite hitter at this point. Wright wouldn’t be a bad answer to this question; it seems unlikely he’s the best answer.
Steamer projects Cuddyer to post a 0.9 fWAR in 122 games. Will 28 additional games make a meaningful difference? Cuddyer’s career-best mark is a 2.9 fWAR in 2006. What are the odds he puts up a career-year at age 36 while moving from Coors to Citi? It’s intriguing to envision his offensive numbers if he plays 150 games. It’s equally depressing to think of his defensive numbers. He can’t be the answer.
For me, it comes down to d’Arnaud or Flores.
Many people are bullish on Flores, the long-time prospect who put up an .842 OPS over his final 114 PA last year despite a .266 BABIP. Do you believe in the swing? He notched 13 extra-base hits in his final 114 PA, which is a very nice mark. If that was an indication of a young guy settling in at the major league level, then he would make an excellent choice.
While Flores hit well the last five weeks of the season, d’Arnaud showed his great leap forward over a larger sample. After beginning the year with a dreadful .544 OPS which earned him a trip to the minors, d’Arnaud came back and recorded an .805 OPS over his final 276 PA. Touted throughout the minors as a two-way star, d’Arnaud finally displayed the offensive side of that prediction.
The troubling thing about these players is that they both come with big questions defensively. Flores had mixed numbers with the advanced defensive systems. UZR liked what it saw from him in his 443+ innings at shortstop last year but DRS did not. And although the Mets committed to playing him every day down the stretch, he played second base in 10 of his last 11 games, a very odd move for a guy who needed reps at SS.
While d’Arnaud won raves for his pitch framing, he led the NL with 12 passed balls and he successfully threw out just 19% of opposing baserunners. For a brief time there was even speculation he would move to the outfield because of his defensive issues.
My opinion is that d’Arnaud will take a bigger step forward defensively than Flores in 2015. He’ll learn when to frame pitches to get a strike and when to concentrate exclusively on keeping the ball from getting away. And while he may never be a great throwing catcher, an improved release can bring him closer to average in throwing out runners.
Additionally, my belief is that he has a much better chance to repeat his positive offensive contributions over a full season. If given a chance to wager that one of these guys would post an .800 OPS over a full season in 2015, my money is on d’Arnaud. His swing looks much better to me and he’s been a more productive hitter at similar levels in the minors, too.
Backers of Flores will point out that he has age on his side. So, that should limit his need for outside intervention to play a full season. Remember that d’Arnaud has missed significant time to injury in 2010, 2012 and 2013.
My vote for the guy to guarantee a full season’s worth of playing time to is d’Arnaud. But if you say Wright, there won’t be much of an argument coming from me. Regardless, let’s hope they all stay healthy in 2015.
I would wish for a healthy David Wright over 150 games. There is enough pitching on this team to replace an injury but there isn’t a genuine three hitter who could take Wright’s place. Your pick, TDA, based on his second half statistics that were extrapolated to 159 games (for the sake of easy math) would result in a player that produced 21 home runs, 66 RBI’s, .265 BA, 313/474//787 and a 125 OPS+. I think a healthy Wright beats these numbers hands down. If TDA were injured he may be hard to replace but Plawecki is a possibility. Santa, I tried to be good, so how about a healthy David Wright.
I like your argument Metsense. Let’s all help an old lady cross the street before Christmas, and maybe we’ll get a few more healthy picks to choose from.
I’d pick either Lagares or Wright. Although Lagares has potential replacements, I feel his game keeps improving, and that he is going to have another great year. I also think a healthy year of Wright will help the Mets be competitive.
I say Wright. He is the backbone of the team in my book. I feel if/when he plays as well as we know he can, we will elevate the team around you. That’s what superstars do, and he is our lone hitting superstar, and you always want your superstar to be healthy. If stays healthy, with no nagging injuries, im going to be bold and predict him to have a season with plus .300 BA, 25 + homers and a .800+ OBP. I trully believe in his abilities, and that last year was a season where he was just decimated by injuries.
I vote Wright for all the obvious reasons. To piggyback on what C.K. said regarding his presence as the heart of the team. While the pitching may be what carries this team, if Wright plays to the back of his baseball card (excluding last yr. off course), they would have a hard time replacing that production if he gets hurt. Also, I think when he is playing well, it alleviates the pressure on the rest of the team considerably. Crazy to think of DW as the “X factor” next year, but in some ways he is.
Fingers crossed.
I believe that the Mets need a healthy and productive David Wright this season. His leadership on the field, especially with the right field fence moved in is critical to the Mets success in 2015.