Six different pitchers have won 20 games or more for the New York Mets. Tom Seaver did it four times, and Dwight Gooden, Jerry Koosman, David Cone, Frank Viola and R.A. Dickey each did it once. Zack Wheeler, in his third big league season, will join them in 2015.
While that might seem far-fetched to many students of the game and fans of the Mets, there is a hint of possibility in there that you’re already feeling and you want to hear more. Before we get into why Wheeler wins 20, let’s take a look at the previous five seasons worth of 20-game winners. (Note that the last stat is their team’s W-L record).
2014
- Clayton Kershaw: 21 wins, 1.77 ERA, 198.1 IP, 0.857 WHIP, 94-68
- Johnny Cueto: 20 wins, 2.25 ERA, 243.2 IP, 0.960 WHIP, 76-86
- Adam Wainwright: 20 wins, 2.38 ERA, 227 IP, 1.031 WHIP, 90-72
2013
- Max Scherzer: 21 wins, 2.90 ERA, 214.1 IP, 0.970 WHIP, 93-69
2012
- Gio Gonzalez: 21 wins, 2.89 ERA, 199.1 IP, 1.129 WHIP, 98-64
- David Price: 20 wins, 2.56 ERA, 211.0 IP, 1.100 WHIP, 90-72
- Jered Weaver: 20 wins, 2.85 ERA, 188.2 IP, 1.018 WHIP, 89-73
- Dickey: 20 wins, 2.73 ERA, 233.2 IP, 1.053 WHIP, 74-88
2011
- Justin Verlander: 24 wins, 2.40 ERA, 251.0 IP, 0.920 WHIP, 95-67
- Ian Kennedy: 21 wins, 2.88 ERA, 222.0 IP, 1.086 WHIP, 94-68
- Kershaw: 21 wins, 2.28 ERA, 233.1 IP, 0.977 WHIP, 82-79
An impressive list. Eleven 20-win efforts, by 10 different pitchers. In most cases the team of the 20-game winner was successful, with seven teams winning 90 or more games and only two on teams with a sub-.500 record. There are some common traits amongst the majority of this group — relatively young (25-29 age seasons), most have power arms, all are horses, and they each have exceptional control, though they weren’t all blessed with it early in their career.
Wheeler is the epitome of a power arm. Dan Warthen says his fastball is the best among the Mets starters, better than Matt Harvey’s, a statement that was echoed by Travis d’Arnaud. In 2014 Wheeler had the fifth-highest average fastball velocity of all major league starters. His fastball averaged 95 MPH for the season (and 95.5 mph in the second half). Moreover, his slider velocity was the best in all of MLB among starters at 89.1 MPH. Second place belongs to a guy you may have heard of because he made a little noise in the postseason, Madison Baumgarner. Obviously velocity isn’t everything, and there is an entire body of work on pitch values that bears consideration, but for today’s purposes we are focusing on the foundation of the house, and not the window treatments.
Like most Mets fans I was frustrated last year with Wheeler’s inability to consistently get out of the 7th and into the 8th or 9th inning of games. To reach the 20-win plateau Wheeler must be more economical with his pitches, specifically he must throw more strikes. Wheeler is a horse — he can sit between 110-115 pitches a start comfortably throughout the season, and that amount of pitches must translate consistently to 7+ innings. In 2014 Wheeler averaged 103.4 pitches per start, good enough for 16th in MLB (Scherzer led the league at 110.2 per start). For Wheeler it has to be about economy, and while his K/9 of 9.08 was good for 12th best in MLB among starters in 2014, his 3.84 BB/9 was 6th worst. The good news is that his control has consistently improved and he is getting more quick outs and punch outs with his secondary pitches. He threw 10% fewer fastballs in 2014 compared to 2013, and the results were excellent.
Last year Wheeler was somewhat victimized by bad luck, though it’s not completely accurate to deem him a bad luck pitcher. That said, his 11-11 record would have looked a lot better had he been on the winning side of “must-win starts”. These starts are defined as any start where a pitcher goes more than six innings and gives up two earned runs or fewer, yet records a loss or a no-decision. In 2014 Wheeler had 11 such games, and he went 6-2 with three no-decisions. Take those games and put them into the win column and he goes 16-9. Of course this goes both ways and he was bailed out of bad starts too, but for most 20-game winners the luck tends to go their way, and they win these “must-win starts”. That gets us to our final point: To win 20 games you need to pitch great, be a bit lucky, and you are likely to be on a team capable of helping you get there because they are both very good and competitive.
In 2015 the Mets are poised to be a better team and a competitive one. On offense there is a new bat in the OF, a more mature d’Arnaud, a confident and relaxed Lucas Duda, a Daniel Murphy playing for a contract at the peak of his career, a healthy David Wright, and a Curtis Granderson reunited with the coach that helped him find the most success. The bullpen is an absolute strength and has the potential to be the best bullpen in the National League. Make no mistake, it is a shutdown bullpen with power pitchers and specialists that can close out the 7th, 8th and 9th innings and lockdown a win for their starter. Finally, there is the rotation itself. It’s a rotation with depth, quality and power.
Wheeler turns 25 in May. In this, his third season he is poised to continue his trajectory to the elite pitchers in the National League. His long, lanky frame, power arm, improving control, desire to take the ball, and his athleticism are all coming together to produce an ace. We’re all excited to get Harvey back and to see how Jacob deGrom follows up his ROY campaign, but it is Wheeler who will be the main stud this year. He is a horse that will win 20 in 2015.
The common thread for the 20 game winners was a WHIP below 1.129 or lower. There were 88 qualifying pitchers in 2014 and Wheeler was ranked 72nd in WHIP. To put that into perspective, a 1.3 WHIP would be 18th best. Wheeler’s 3.84 BB/9 ranks him 83rd ! Expecting Wheeler to make that drastic an improvement in BB/9 is unrealistic and therefor his WHIP will remain high and his chances of winning 20 games slim to none.
Scherzer’s WHIP in the two seasons before he won 20: 1.349 and 1.274. Gio Gonzalez WHIP the season before he won 20: 1.317.
To win 20 games, you need luck, luck and more luck.
Kershaw has had the lowest ERA and WHIP over the last 4 years, yet he’s only won 20 games twice. He’s won as low as 14 games despite having the best numbers.
Felix Hernandez is another guy who has been an elite pitcher for the last 7 years, and he’s only won 15 games more than once.
It’s 2015 anyways. Why do we still care about wins?
I’m with you, Name. Without significantly better hitting and fielding support this year, it will be tough for any Mets pitcher to win 20 games. I’ll be happy if Wheeler has a better ERA and issues fewer walks.
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Excellent article and I love the style. I am a believer that Wheeler is more than capable of committing such a feat, but as Name mentioned, its all about the luck. I do not see the bullpen as such as an immense strength though. Until Parnell can show his health, I think we have to consider him null and void for the entire season. Mejia and Black walk too many, but hopefully that can improve. If one of them goes, I think the house of cards start to fall a little. But I do agree they have potential at least to be dominant. I have a counter proclamation: David Wright will be an All-Star. And I believe the biggest reason will be because he knows when to sit down.
As Name rightly points out, wins are not a metric that reveal only pitching quality information, meaning a lot of other factors go into it. I also believe there are wins and there are wins. Going a strong 7 2/3 and giving up 1 run is more profound than making a quality start, but leveraging the pen. Still a high win count does give the opposing team the thought that “today will likely be a loss”. That kind of X factor stuff can really matter.
On to Wheeler. I believe he would need to be the luckiest pitcher in the MLB to reach 20 wins. I believe he is one of the luckier arms, unlike Harvey, who had been quite unlucky. It is a mistake to think about Wheeler getting out of the 7th ans into the 8th and 9th. Last year he pitched 185.1 innings over 32 starts, good for an average of < 6 innings per start — 20 win pitchers don't go 5 2/3 IP. Unless he comes out of the off season a new guy, then it's unrealistic to envision how someone who leaves so many innings on the table can reach 20 — that's where his luck would need to be on the scale of winning the lottery. It is also the reason I have been a vocal advocate of trading him while he has a perceived front line reputation despite not a single metric to support it. Sell high!! Of course as one of Alderson's first moves as GM, there is no chance of that, which flies in the face of real Moneyball tactics.
On the other hand, if Harvey gets a bit more run support, then he just might clear 15 Ws even on a reduced number of starts. He is orders of magnitude better than Wheeler.
I believe Wheeler can win 20 provided he secures the right sort of mustache for his 2015 season. In my many attempts to get in touch with Sandy, he has yet to examine my raw data. Someone needs to get deep into my raw data…
Anyhow, I believe the proper ‘stache will provide the right wind resistance to allow his curve extra movement and, well the ladies love it.
No ‘stache? I can’t go for that!
Best regards,
Oates
Great comments here. First off, I totally agree that Wins, in and of themselves, are a somewhat poor indicator of pitching success; however they do matter. Think back to those 20 win seasons for the Mets mentioned above, each was the result of a fairly spectacular season by that pitcher. Cone’s season was magic…Doc Gooden was dominant. Obviously great seasons happen all the time that result in 12-15 win seasons, and relatively average seasons result in 15+ wins (see Bartolo Colon). So whither Zack Wheeler? Is he an ace or just an innings eating AJ Burnett type that both flashes and frustrates? I vote for the former, and cannot wait for this season to start.
I appreciate the welcome here. Just an FYI that my Twitter is MetsBlue.
Dave, he has not shown any evidence of being an ace at the MLB level. Control problems have plagued him consistently. There is simply no evidence anywhere that he is more than a mid rotation guy. I mean really, deGrom is already a better pitcher.
Hey Dave,
Welcome to the world of Mets 360. Your rose-colored glasses are a nice addition to contrast with those of us whose cynicism sometimes permeates these discussions. I’m always hopeful that those with views like yours prevail even though the Wilpons don’t deserve it (oops, there’s that cynicism again—sorry!).
Yes, by now, everybody knows the limits of “W-L” as a statistic, so many uncontrollable variables. That’s old news. But sometimes the pendulum swings too far: Winning is also a talent, a contributive skill. It absolutely requires that a pitcher go deep into games; let’s say, by today’s standards, he has to finish the 7th. Even that makes it tough to win 20, given the Mets weak offense, uncertain bullpens, etc.
Hell, right now they are planning on using an historically awful defensive SS/2B combo. Not just the worst in baseball, but possibly one of the worst of all time.
Remember that Matt Harvey in 2013 enjoyed a near-Cy Young season with the Mets. He was incredible, and won only 9 games. Not his fault.
I like Zack Wheeler a lot, and early on identified Ron Darling as a good comp for him. Closing out “W”s was not Ron’s strength. Too many pitches; the control wasn’t there. Would love to see Wheeler notch 15-16 wins.
While it is pretty cool for a pitcher to win 20 games, as we saw with Dickey in his final home start, the statistic does not really matter anymore. In the past, guys with 4.50+ ERA’s have posted 15+ wins because their team bailed them out. It would be much more exciting to see him top 210 innings and post an ERA under 3.10. I definitely think that Wheeler showed extreme improvement in the second half, and even from his May 29th start against the Phillies. Wheeler might win 20 games next year, in 2016, or by 2020, but in the end wins are not the best way to determine a pitchers strength.
He has the talent to do it.
He learned a lot last year.
This year may be something special.