As we head into the new year, it is becoming more and more evident which are serious about contending in the upcoming year and which are looking at 2016 and beyond. Despite what many pessimists believe about the Mets, they are serious about contending in the east division and the National League in general. Other teams in the National League have made bigger offseason splashes and seem to have a more urgent commitment to winning. But how well do they actually stand up to the Mets? Lets take a look.
At this point, initially it seems that the division leaders are obvious with the Nationals, Cardinals, and Dodgers leading the pack. Beyond thay there seem to be eight teams-Cubs, Pirates, Reds, Brewers, Marlins, Mets, Giants, Padres- competing for two spots. Without further ado, here is how other National League teams compare to the Mets.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Threat Level: Serious
With the departure of Russell Martin, their team leader, and holder of a .832 OPS, and “ace” Edinson Volquez it seems as if they should be breathing heavily. That being said, they could be expecting full seasons from breakout stars such as Josh Harrison and Starling Marte. In addition who solid veteran players Neil Walker, Andrew McCutchen, and Pedro Alvarez that could make great contributions next season. In my opinion, the Pirates are the fourth-best team in the National League and should grab a wild-card spot. While the Mets have shown the ability to beat the Pirates, the Pirates are a team that surge at the end of the season and slide right into the playoffs. Expect nothing different this season.
Miami Marlins: Threat Level: Somewhat serious
After doing an extensive article on this topic last week, I am just going to put this in short. The Marlins and Mets are an evenly matched team that both have the potential to sneak into the playoffs and make an impact. That being said, both teams have risks and history has taught us that both teams are a doubt away from failing. Being a Mets fan, it should be my duty to inject some optimism, however. How would you, or any other Mets fan feel trading the equivalent of Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz (Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney) for marginal upgrades such as Martin Prado and Dee Gordon? Just something to think about.
Milwaulkee Brewers: Threat Level: Moderate
After leading the ever-so-feared NL Central for about 150 days, the Brewers had headed into the offseason wondering how to improve. Almost instantly they upgraded at the one position needed- by acquiring Adam Lind. While the Brewers got a career year from Jonathan Lucroy and most likely a final solid above-average season from Aramis Ramirez (although we’ve been saying that for years) they should also expect a much better season from Jean Segura. Nor is it unreasonable, to expect some improvements from Scooter Genett, Khris Davis, and Carlos Gomez. In regard to their pitching, it remains hard to imagine Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza both turning in solid seasons once again, but Yovani Gallardo and Wily Peralta should both be fine heading into next season. While their bullpen was nothing too special, it was nothing to balk at as they might lose a closer who should have posted an 1.50 runs worse. On paper looks pretty solid, but it remains unlikely they will make the postseason without a little luck like they had in 2014.
San Diego Padres: Threat Level: Not too serious, but keep an eye out
“The most upgraded team.” “New team to beat in the NL West.” Both are the type of headlines that have recently been thrown around in regard to the new-look San Diego Padres. But how much of this transition is actually legit? It will not take long to admit that the pitching staff in San Diego is legitimate and quite impressive, but lets talk about the outfield. Three big acquisitions, Wil Myers, Matt Kemp, and Justin Upton-all three show serious problems. Kemp had an enormous bounce-back season from two down years, but how much of it was real? He completely raked in the months of June and July, took a step back in August and then raged in September. But what do baseball fans say about the final month. Never trust September numbers. Kemp has the potential to get hurt and then regress. Myers has to reprove himself after a complete failure of a season, and Upton had a .733 OPS away from hitter-friendly Turner Field in 2014. The infield of this team is in the hands of four players who all hit at .240 or under. This team could all come together and surprise some people, but as of right now, it would be a surprise to me.
Cincinnati Reds: Threat Level: Not serious
Both at the beginning of the season and the end the Mets took two out of three against a team that was projected to make the playoffs. With a rotation that could be feared by the rest of the National League, this still looked like a postseason contender before the offseason started. After trading off pieces named Mat Latos, Alfredo Simon, and probably more to come, they seem to be heading into a rebuilding mode. So, if a couple players bounce back in a big way this team could win 95 games. With nowhere to go but down for players like Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce, this could still be a postseason worthy team but two of the three are over 30 thus it remains unlikely.
San Francisco Giants: Threat Level: Non-existent
If history has taught baseball has anything the San Francisco Giants will completely tank in 2015, but since they are the defending World Champions, they deserve the benefit of the doubt. The rotation is in shambles after Madison Bumgarner and is nowhere near what it was in 2010-2012. The offense takes a big hit without postseason hero Pablo Sandoval and key-contributor Mike Morse. The core of Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence, and Angel Pagan could still prove to be solid, but is not exactly ideal. They thrive on defense, pitching, and postseason play- but the defense is below average, the pitching is not high-rated, and therefore will be no postseason baseball in San Francisco in 2015.
Chicago Cubs: Threat Level: Almost non-existent
If we are talking future success, the north side of Chicago would be at the top of the Mets concerns, but I do not believe 2015 be the season that the curse is raised. The Cubs have a nice group of players for this season, but their prospects have yet to actually have an extended show of performance. To go along with an unproven bullpen and top-heavy rotation. Anything could happen, of course. This team could become the 2003 Marlins and go on a four-month rampage with young and talented players- but it just seems unlikely.
Julian do you consider yourself to be an expert on baseball matters? You paint with such a broad brush. Amazing your ability to cover teams with such emphatic finality. I guess it’s your style of writing that sometimes leaves me flabbergasted. You are declaring the threat level these teams are to the Mets chances of a wild card berth. It’s only January Julian. It remains hard to imagine Lohse and Garza turning in solid seasons again. Really? Why? In your years of watching baseball you have a secret wisdom that allows you to know this for a fact? Or do you somehow have a premonition and already know? Why can’t Lohse and Garza have continues success? Out of curiosity. How old are you?
Pete, I’ve also thought this way when reading Julian’s work. He seems to be young but tends to underestimate things; something an older person would have learned to not do.
Gus learning to never underestimate things is a lifelong project! In all my travels that’s one thing I try to leave at home.
Prognosticating is the toughest business in the world, because you will always be wrong to some degree and there are a lot of folks who will tote, “But you said….!” Other than player performance predictions, which are easier to imagine, I like to stay out of these guesses. Unless it’s with my brother, but then a sweet new Mets hat is on the line for whoever does better, so it’s worth it.
Patrick there’s a difference between prognosticating and stating an observation as a fact. I can understand if an author “feels” that a player may have a downward trend this coming season. But when you “state” that two players albeit starters having continued success is some kind of impossibility I question the author’s perceptions and statements. They’re simply opinions. You need to put things in proper perspective. The Dodgers were playing meaningful games in September. So Kemp playing well in September was meaningful. Put the player in the proper perspective and then you can decide for yourself. Kemp has the potential to get hurt and regress! So does every player who plays in the major leagues. Can anyone say David Wright? I do applaud the effort that is made by All the contributing writers here on Mets 360. Patrick the learning curve is never ending. We are all on it. The beauty of it is there is no wrong or right. I am probably a bit older than you and I am still learning. We all have knowledge and gather information through our experiences. There is always room to grow.
I hear you. I’m 33 and everyday I learn something new.
I found the Pirates off-season to be pretty interesting for a team that, like the Mets, has limited resources. A quick glance at their transaction record from Oct-Dec 2014 lists that they made 8 trades, signed 16 players to minor league contracts, claimed various guys over waivers, released others, and signed 3 free agents. Corey Hart was an interesting pick-up, and could be a useful role player for them. They worked hard to address the fringes. Just some aggressive team-building overall. Losing Martin will hurt.
I believe it’s been 569 days since Sandy Alderson made a trade. But then again, why would he?
He’s afraid if he screws up he’ll put the Mets even further away from being competitive again. What might be called playing it safe. And yes I highly disagree with this trend. You need to utilize all your options as a GM.
Thats exactly right. And the ultraconservative way wont build a WS team. Its shows in may of his drafts. By the time he is done being GM, these kids may still be fighting through the system…and someone elses issue. Alderson has not for 1 year built a team tobe competitive “now”. And this year wont be any different. We are hanging everything on “ifs” practically at every spot.
Chris another problem here is that the Mets have a manager who will never fight to have a kid come north with them after spring training (a la Davey Johnson with Dwight Gooden). So the Mets don’t have that opposing view needed to off set Aldersons view on how every kid goes up the chain one step at a time regardless of talent.
Great point by Pete and Chris on the promoting of the youngsters. I feel that there really aren’t many kids that have to be moved up. Maybe Reynolds or Tovar could right now. Also, with regard to signing players, the Mets are much more set than other teams; the problem is the Mets are set in uncertainty.
Only Duda, Lagares, Murphy, and TDA are considered secure options going into the year. Wright is coming off an injury that he is trying to mask over, Cuddyer and Granderson are good players that we hope can be producers but have a recent history of repeated injuries, and Flores who the team must see at some point. Although we all agreed last year that was the point, there seems to be a hesitation to move on from a failed option. (See CY).
For me, the whole key is Wright. If he can play, Tejada stays on the bench and there isn’t a massive downgrade. If one of the outfielders gets hurt, I have confidence in Kirk/MDD/Mayberry to perform similarly to the starter for a bit.
Granderson has played 136 or more games eight of the last nine seasons. He’s topped 150 games six times in that span, including last year. I have my concerns about him but he’s nowhere near the injury risk that Cuddyer is for me.
Gus I’m with you. Wright needs TC to give him an occasional day off as well. There are so many question marks on this team. Parnell, Harvey as well as Wright. The saving grace is we don’t have to worry about seeing any more Abreus, Ankiels, Farnsworths or Valverdes coming through the turnstile. Addition by subtraction can only help the kids with their playing time.
but we still have the Cuddyer question mark. Love the guy, not sure about the player. I fear he may lean more towards Jason Bay than Nelson Cruz.
its the multitude of question marks that make me much more concerned about the success of 2015. TdA = ?, Duda = ?, Flores = ?, Wright = ?, Cuddy = ?, Grandy = ?, Harvey = ?, Wheeler = ?, Parnell = ?????
Thats a lot of tumblin’ dice right there.
Too much for comfort Chris. Everything has to fall into place just to have a shot at a wild card. Eventually the future has to be now.
For reference, I thought I’d throw in the Vegas odds (dated 12/25) — which is very, very serious business, btw — into the conversation. Note that while Julian considers both the Giants and Cubs as non-threats to the Mets playoff chances, the oddsmakers in Vegas rate them higher than the Mets. BTW, when you look at the Rockies, they really ought to try to get something for Tulo:
NL-ONLY ODDS
Los Angeles Dodgers 15/2
Washington Nationals 10/1
Chicago Cubs 12/1
San Francisco Giants 16/1
St. Louis Cardinals 16/1
New York Mets 25/1
San Diego Padres 25/1
Atlanta Braves 28/1
Miami Marlins 33/1
Pittsburgh Pirates 33/1
Milwaukee Brewers 40/1
Cincinnati Reds 50/1
Arizona Diamondbacks 100/1
Colorado Rockies 100/1
Philadelphia Phillies 150/1
The Rockies are bluffing about winning with this group. This GM is going to wait too long to break it up and you’re going to have another “Phillies”, a belly up floating fish.
Tulo’s value will not go up, especially if he even tweets a hamstring. CarGo and Rosario need to go soon. He must think the Mets will blink. We’ve tried to get Alderson to blink for years.
Gus if Tulo gets hurt during spring training I don’t see how any team makes them an offer. Worse yet CarGo would be their only true asset and he’s had recent health issues.
James let’s revisit the odds again just before the season opens and compare? I think the Pirates will continue to improve and make moves that will place them ahead of the Mets as well.