On paper Daniel Murphy is a good, but not great offensive player and below average fielder. He’s in his walk year and the Mets have two exciting young players who could take over the keystone in Wilmer Flores and the young prospect Dilson Herrera. For these reasons, many Mets fans and sportswriters have been lobbying to trade Murph. Don’t count this writer/fan among them.
On paper Murph is easily replaced by one the younger, cheaper and higher upside players in the system. However, his intangibles are another matter. Murph is a gritty, hard-working team player that you can win with. His hard-nosed, hair-on-fire style excites the fans and motivates his teammates. He’s a great teammate who’s done everything asked of him, working very hard to transition from third base to outfield to first base to second and briefly, back to third again. Murph has stayed remarkably healthy the past three seasons and, at 29, is now firmly in his prime. The fact that the Mets haven’t made the playoffs is far from Murph’s fault.
His high contact/low strikeout ability, decent OBP, ability to advance and drive in runners and steal bases makes him the best option we have as a 2 hole hitter – a key to any successful lineup. His lefty bat allows Terry Collins to trot out a very balanced right-left-righ-left-right-left-right lineup. On a team that has seen more than its share of injuries, slumps and under-performance the past three seasons, Murph has been a steady, reliable performer.
The potential of Herera is exciting and Flores profiles as a better second baseman than shortstop, but neither is a sure thing. Murphy is. Herera, by all accounts, needs another year of minor league seasoning. Unless you want to see Ruben Tejada at shortstop, the Mets can’t move Flores to second without landing an upgrade at shortstop, a trigger the organization doesn’t seem to want to pull thus far.
Murph has been a model of consistency, averaging a respectable .290/.333/.752 with a good number of doubles and stolen bases thrown in. If this team is ready to start winning, you can’t replace a solid, home grown veteran player in his prime with an unproven rookie. To do so is a financial move and not the smart play for a team that claims to be ready to compete for the playoffs.
While he will never be mistaken for Joe Morgan in the field, Murphy’s defense is passable and could still improve. We’re not talking about Howard Johnson at shortstop or Juan Samuel in the outfield.
Sandy Alderson has three options with Murphy.
A) Keep him and let him walk at season’s end with possibly no draft pick compensation.
B) Trade him but don’t expect much in return as he’s worth more to us than other teams.
C) Extend him. Offer a modest 3 – or 4-year deal that won’t break the bank. Herera could be part of a package to land a shortstop while Flores becomes the super sub/bench bat this team sorely needs.
Option C is the smart play.
Option C may be the smart move if the team Had the money. But since they don’t then you move him before you get nothing in return a la Reyes. Alderson can wait and see where this team is going before he commits himself. Besides if the Mets are out of it then you’ll have the trading deadline to move a DH minus the power. As you said he’s more valuable to the Mets then to other teams. So valuable Sandy tried to move him last off season but found no takers.
Completely agree Pete it all comes down to economics. At the risk of being accused of kicking a dead horse I come back to the proven experienced SS we should have behind Flores in case he doesn’t live up to expectations. If we had that then if Wrighty isn’t healthy, Murph to third , Flores to second , vet SS in we still have a fighting chance. If Wrighty is healthy then we have our vet SS in case Flores doesn’t produce. But again it all comes down to economics and chances are at least for some stretch of the season we will be caught with our shorts down around our ankles. It is truly amazing how short sighted our front office is or the complete lack of financial resources we have or both that we do not have a plan B in case these scenarios play out except for bringing in a failed prospect or an unproven one. Is this really the way a true contender assembles their roster when getting ready to make a run? And not to have this for 5 million dollars in todays baseball money is an embarrassment to any team much less one playing in the largest market in the league.
Consistency Rob. Last year Chris Young’s 7.25 million dollar bargain contract. Gag gag. This years knee jerk reaction signing? Michael Cuddyer and ? Oh! That’s it Rob!
Pete,
With all the talk that Alderson is too patient it is my evaluation that the last two years he has panicked. Young as you mention and Granderson if he had waited he could have had Cruz for half the price. This year Cuddyer if he had waited he could have had Aoki for half the price this year and almost 1/3 next. He’s a genius. He could have gotten in on the Myers trade possibly this year if he hadn’t jumped the gun on Cuddyer. And without giving up our 1st round pick or 1/2 our draft allotment monies. Before anyone tells me how hindsight is a hundred percent I will remind you I don’t get 5 million a year like Alderson to know these things, please proceed.
+1
Have to disagree here. For a couple of years now we have banged on Murphy’s defense, base runner blunder of the month, and lack of pop for a pretty good hitter that is too comfortable just hitting a lazy fly ball to short left center. Yes, he doesn’t strike out much, but as Hernandez says, he gives away too many atbats anyway. Today’s Murph has gotten a little better at pulling the ball, that’s good, but it’s a little. He still tries to steal third with two outs, come on. But, what you see is what you get defensively. Serviceable at best.
To resign Murphy in any capacity is to have a lineup version of your pitching staff, where Gee is blocking Montero and Colon is blocking Syndergaard. Further, I can’t see Flores being here too long unless Wright is moved. If, when, should, the Mets get a SS, then with Hererra ready and able to take over, what do you do with Flores?
But, back to Murphy. One example is the Orioles need a second sacker and a good lefty hitter. Don’t know what they would give for Murphy, but if Murphy gets off to a good start he should be moved to Baltimore, Oakland, or another team that can use a good bat. It may not be a king’s ransom, but he’s leaving anyway.
The Mets roster has too much fat on it; start trimming it now. As for veteran reserve infield help, having a player like Escobar from the Twins that can play everywhere will help you.
Hey Gus,
Escobar would be another option for the back up MI slot. If mastermind Alderson wouldn’t have outsmarted himself last year before the season started when he was asking for top pitching prospects for Ike and would have accepted Britton who the Orioles offered we would have a devastating BP and our other lefty we are still looking for.
I am ok keeping Murph this year since we don’t know how gimpy Wrighty might or might not be. And I fully expect long stretches of Cuddyerless ball with him on the DL we will need all the proven offense we can get imo.
As Wright insurance, that’s fine. However, if Wright is healthy, we have enough backups to cover him at the end of the season: Campbell and Flores (Tejada or Reynolds going to SS) are available.
While I’ve always been a supporter of Murphy, I’m realizing now that it was from the heart and not the head. He’s a fairly consistent 2.5-3 fWAR player over the past four years and is a doubles machine. However, 2013 was the outlier in Runs, because he isn’t terribly fast and doesn’t make the best decisions on the basepaths, so don’t look for him to score 90 ever again. I always wished his power would improve, but that was just wishful thinking on my part. He’s gritty and low-key and awesome in my book. But man he makes things look difficult sometimes. I don’t think it would be wise to undo our upcoming potential through trades and a Murphy extension. He’s a really nice player who might push another team over the top, but I think the Mets can duplicate his production in house if need be.
Saying that Murphy is irreplaceable when better options are already in-house in Flores and Herrera is like saying Terry Collins, AKA, The Imbecile is not replaceable when better options are already in-house in Wally Backman.
Amen Joe!
I wouldn’t be surprised with the Mets payroll climbing towards 100 million to see Gee and Murphy traded for prospects bringing down the 2015 payroll to about where it was for last seasons opening day.
I like Daniel Murphy.
But there’s no way I want to trade The Dilson, who I think is going to be a multi-time All-Star — and not in, “Hey, the Mets need a representative, let’s pick Herrera” way, either.
If Murphy would be happy in a 300-PA role, I’d keep him in a heartbeat. But I think he’s earned the right to be a full-time player.
Murphy has to go, it’s only a question of when. I really like him, blah, blah, blah, but in this case context is everything.
He’s making $8.3 million on the NY Mets and he’s a significant weakness defensively on a team built around pitching. In addition, it’s an area of positional strength. Flores, now; Herrera, hopefully next year.
As a part-time player, he’s a luxury the Mets cannot afford.
This day has been coming a long time — foreseeable for years. Once the salary goes up, the small market teams must unload. Sandy waited too long on this one, I think, because now that Murphy is making good money, his value is not the same.
It’s a shame. Feels to me like it’s been bungled. If he stays the season — and if the Mets are “in it,” he possibly should — then he’ll walk for nothing. The bold, courageous move would be the trade him at the deadline even if the Mets are in realistic contention for a playoff spot. I have yet to see Sandy Alderson make a single bold, courageous move; it’s part of his strength, our risk-averse GM. His mistakes are his inactions, not the things he actually does.
The Mets are in a position right now where they need to cut ties with certain players. Murphy is the #1 player on the list.
Trade Murphy for the best prospect/s possible and depending on how Reynolds, Tovar do in spring training, the Mets can move Flores to 2B and say Reynolds or Tovar plays shortstop.
This gives the Mets all of 2015 to evaluate which will be the future 2B for the Mets, Flores or Herrera with the loser getting traded or becoming a bench player.
2015 will also serve to see if Duda can repeat what he did in 2014. If he cannot and Flores does well, maybe there is at least a platoon at 1B with him and Duda.
Lots of possibilities guys.
Joe, so you are punting the 2015 season in January? Another year of let’s see what we’ve got?
Shouldn’t these guys know that by now? And then act decisively according to the wisdom of their evaluations?
Why surrender another season? And why from a business standpoint do you step aside, give up all that potential revenue, while the Yankees are vulnerable in the enormous NY marketplace?
Tovar at SS? He’s different from Quintanilla exactly how?
James the Yankees are not vulnerable in New York..Take a step back and realize the Mets financial woes are dragging this team and their fan base down. At least Hal re-invests in the team. And with a payroll of 190 million+ Yankee fans can at least appreciate their team trying to win a World Series year in and year out. The Yankees did everything right building their new Yankee Stadium. While Fred Flintstone did everything in his power to screw his players and the Met fan base. The Yankees will make the playoffs and win a World Series long before the Mets come close.
Pete, we disagree about the Yankees. In my experience, I know a lot of Yankee fans and they are not enthusiastic about the team. Jeter retired. And I keep hearing comments about the Mets. The youth! I think there’s a little envy and interest in the Mets, more than before, from the casual fan.
I am being realistic. Murphy and Flores at the middle is not going to look pretty so one has to go. I think that Flores can replace Murphy at 2B and do so with a better glove and more power
Tovar to me is better than Tejada with the glove but might have the same kind of bat. But he is highly regarded on defense.
But if Reynolds hits, he would make the most sense with Flores going to 2B.
Finally no, I am not giving up on 2015. But, lets not forget that certain players on the team no longer fit because better ones are either ready or will be ready in 2015. Gee, Murphy, Colon, Niese should all be traded if possible. Not at the same time mind you but by the All Star break.
I’m with you Joe. 32 million dollars that can be applied to SS and LF The sooner the better.
My ideal scenario would be to slot Flores at second and trade for a really good proven shortstop. Then, depending on how Flores performs, let Herrera take his place and make Flores the super sub. But until the Mets are willing to make that deal, I am not in favor of moving Flores to second with another in-house option at short. I think that weakens our lineup more than it helps our defense.
Maybe Alderson is thinking the same thing and doesn’t want to deal Murphy and move Flores over without adding a shortstop. Problem is, he doesn’t seem to want to pull the trigger on a deal that could facilitate this. Going into this off-season, I was really hoping Sandy was going to be creative and land a star shortstop or outfielder with a package from among Murphy, Gee, Niese, Colon, Parnell, Mejia, Plawecki, Montero, et al.
Matt, with you buddy. Furthermore, I want to see Flores play SS for at least half a year. What is there really to lose?
Well said Matt. Problem is I think Sandy is going to wait until the trading deadline to squeeze every last drop he can with teams competing for our players. Problem is they’re are 28 other teams they can go to at a more reasonable price.
I view Daniel Murphy the same way that I viewed RA Dickey. A very nice story and a pretty damn good player and do not want to see him go, but realize he probably should go. Dickey was a little different as Murph did not win the MVP last year, but they could still get a few decent pieces for him. Either he should be traded before the season or in the first month or so, once Herrera is ready. If he needs to be moved prior to that then slot Tejada at short and Flores to second base until Herrera comes up and move Flores back to short.
Also I am a strong proponent of letting Flores get his shot at shortstop at least until the all-star break, but if him and Murph could some how be packaged for someone like Alexei Ramirez. The White Sox do need an upgrade at third base and second base. I think the White Sox would need to throw in a Single-A to Double-A player as well that is in there top 25.
With that trade the Mets could trot out a lineup of
Ramirez-SS
Granderson-LF
Wright-3B
Duda-1B
Cuddyer-RF
Herrera-2B
d’Arnaud-C
Lagares-CF
Pitcher
That lineup looks pretty damn good and Ramirez, Lagares, and Herrera could all go for the leadoff spot because Ramirez hits for a little bit of power too, but does not have the greatest on base percentage that most like out of the leadoff spot. He does have some speed and can swipe a few bags, which could be useful if the Mets put him at 8th with the pitcher behind him or as a second leadoff hitter in the 9th spot.
The White Sox are looking to compete this year, and probably would not want to trade their all-star shortstop, but if hey do not believe Gillaspie can do well at third base, they can do this trade and slide Carlos Sanchez to shortstop.
Murphy would be a rental since this would be his first opportunity at free agency. Flores at best is a AAAA player with no true position. So that being said why would the White Sox’s give up Ramirez if they were in playoff contention? And add a top 25 player from their system? Wouldn’t the Sox’s just trade a their SS prospect instead?
No one is irreplaceable. That is as sure as death and taxes.
It is funny that a guy is irreplaceable on one team can barely generate interest from others. I assure you, Giancarlo Stanton is a lot closer to irreplaceable.
I cant think of a Mets fan that dislikes Murph. He is everything you can want in a player, except that he’s not that good at the position he plays. If this was a game where grit get you wins, I extend Murph for 6 years. As it stands, any contract puts him on the wrong side of 30, and the poor defense weve come to love from Murph will not be funny “ha ha” any more, but more like funny “oh oh”.
I seem to recall last off season Alderson gauging the trade market for Murphy with little to no response,
We’ve been fed Friskies for so long and been told it’s salmon that when other people ask “why do you eat cat food?” We give a confused look and say, this, this right here, is wild line caught Pacific Northwest salmon.
Chris all Met fans have been fed so much BS that after awhile you get accustomed and complacent to it. And yes we accept the penny pinching and miserly deeds that comes from the Wilpons..Can’t wait to see their tax returns for 2014 and see how much money they “lost” with the Mets.
It’s about time for my annual Stockholm Syndrome post.
I’ll drink to that! So long as it’s not Kool-Aid!
i’ve been saying the exact same thing forever now….. this team has way too many question marks. Our captain, can he become the player he was at shea now that the outfield walls have been moved in to closer replicate shea??? Can grandy become the player he was with the yankees?? Can duda continue to grow and repeat the season he had last year?? Can Cuddyer stay healthy and produce in a blue and orange uniform?? (Same uniform, mind you, that ate up the likes of Jason Bay and Robbie Alomar). Can Travis (like Duda) continue to grow and repeat on the second half he had. Can Legaras offense come around or is he going to be an all defensive type of one-sided talent??……. Our entire offense is one big question mark!! Oh and by the way, let me just add, offense has been our biggest weakness the last few seasons. How in the world can we even think of replacing our most consistent and overall best hitter?? Our lone all star?? A team leader and player that’s been one of our healthiest players the last few seasons. Murphy is also homegrowned and a player that’s already proven that he can play in NY and not intimidated by Citifield (unlike the above mentioned Cuddyer). I agree…. sign, Murph to respectable 3 year deal and let Dilson gather experience in the minors (he is still very young). Promote him in case of injury…..If our offense proves to come around then we can think of trading Murphy and/or Dilson. As of now, its just way too many question marks to risk losing our most consistent offensive hitter. This team is getting ready to win is it not?? How can we back track and see what we have in Dilson at second, We already know murph is one of the best hitters in the league!! Get rid of murph?!! No way!! Sign Murph!!!!
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Harry the Mets don’t have the money to pay Murphy at age 31,35- 40 million dollars to play barely adequate defense and hit.280-.290 with 30 doubles and maybe 5-10 home runs. Herrara plays above average defense and can be Murphy in a year or two offensively at league minimum.
That’s the whole point. How do we know Dilson will replicate Murphy’s offense in a year or two?? We’re hoping. It’s a risk. This is the same organization that raved about Ruben tejada becoming a solid pro and that losing Reyes was not gonna be a big deal because tejada was gonna be a good pro. We already know what we have in Daniel and that’s the best hitter on a lousy offensive team. Can we really afford to risk losing him and hope and wait till dilson comes around? Dilson did get hurt towards the end of the year. What if he’s also injury proned? Murph has proven to be able to hit in NY and also is quite durable. Yes, He is gonna demand more money. But now is the time to pay up. This is NY. And we are getting ready to win. I feel it’s important to keep murph…. Not only for his bat and durability. But also bc he can play several positions (keep in mind David has also been injury proned lately) and he’s a team leader.
While this may be New York. Reality is the Wilpons will not sign Murphy who will go into Free Agency looking for a mega deal as it will be his first and only opportunity to strike it rich at age 31. The Wilpons are broke. They are not expanding the payroll. Come April 1,2015 you will see this payroll at or below 90 million. While Harry you rave about Murphy’s offense his defense is a liability. His base running blunders are Puigest at times. Having a strong defense up the middle is what wins games in the long run. The Mets are half way there. Just take a look at what the Dodgers did this off season to shore up their middle defensively.
It remains to be seen if what the dodgers did to there ss/2b combo was a positive or negative. They haven’t gotten very far in the postseason so changes were necessary. However, some may say they went too far. We shall see. And yes, I agree, defense up the middle is important…. One of my favorite teams was the late 90s team that had Ordonez/Fonzie as the double play combo…. However, on a team with a notoriously poor offense like our current team losing murph’s offense and clutch hitting will be too much in my opinion. He’s been our most consistent hitter the last few seasons. Really the only player who’s gotten better offensively each of the last 3 seasons. If we had a good or even average offensive team, I’d agree, he’d be expendable. But our offense is one of the poorest in the NL. Hitting in the clutch is one of poorest as well. Too much to lose in my opinion. And yes, Murph does not possess good instincts on the basepaths. He loves to take risks….sometimes losing and looking stupid in the process. However, some of those are on Terry. Is it too much to ask for Terry to put a hold sign when murph is on 2nd and a stolen base is out of the question?? Murph will never be a good baserunner but deep down I believe he tries to force the action bc he knows how weak our offense is so he tries too hard to make things happen (knowing he has to bc the rest of the offense will fail to advance him, etc). If he was surrounded by better hitters maybe he wouldn;t take the risks he does. Our window is quickly approaching, the wilpons need to open up their wallets sooner or later. Or we will risk losing out on the talented years Degrom and Harvey and hopefully the rest of our young staff will give us.
Andrew Friedman built a consistent winner in Tampa Bay with a shoestring budget in the 60 to 70 million dollar range. h e could not Sign marquee star players. Defensive and offensive matrices are what he and his staff use to gauge talent. I agree Harry if the Mets had more proven consistent offense you could move Murphy. But what if you used Murphy to get that offense at SS? Flores can move to second base or even Herrera if he’s ready. If not you always have Tejada as your utility infielder to cover. the organization has options they can implement. The Wilpons have no pockets to open up Harry. Once you accept that realization then your perception on what has to be done might change. Signing Michael Cuddyer was the Mets moment in the sun for signing a high end Free Agent this off season. Looking at it from that perspective I see Alderson doing a salary dump before the season even begins to bring down the payroll to 90 million or less. It’s depressing. i’m not a pessimist but actions speak far greater than words. So far Fred’s silence in regards to this matter is deafening.
Really enjoying all the back and forth on this post. The part that troubles me is the “backup QB syndrome” that a lot of Mets fans seem to have. Moving a veteran pitcher to make room for a stud prospect is one thing, but dumping a productive and well liked player in his prime just for the sake of saving money is another.
Again, if we had a real SS, I’d be okay with trading Murphy and moving Flores over. If we get a decent offer for Murph, I’d be okay with it. Until one of those presents itself, I prefer to keep his bat in the lineup and his spark in the clubhouse.
So do you see spending 4/44 on Murphy? It just strikes me 40+ M$ is way better spent elsewhere.
I disagree that “choice c” is the smart move, in fact to me it is the wrong move.
Choice A would be where the Mets might end up with in September if the season is successful and Choice B if the Mets never make it to September.
Matt I can see where you are coming from and in the third week in January, Murphy may have more value being kept. I think the Mets never should have gotten to this point as many of the posters have stated. Alderson did improve the team this winter but he really mishandled this off season and could have done better.
Metsense you mean he Alderson mishandled the off season again?
I don’t feel any urgency to move Murphy now. Doing so would put the Mets in a position where they add another *question* to the equation- insofar as the younger group of players vying for SS & 2nd Base. Plus, depending on how D Wright bounces back, Murph is ready to fill in at 3rd. I disagree that if he walks at the end of the year the mets get “nothing”. They get an extra $9 million to spend on another player. Obviously, the Mets haven’t been bowled over by offers for him, so I don’t think a qualifying offer is in the works. The Mets need to start this year, and maybe play the whole year through with Murph on the roster, depending on their record at the deadline and depending on the development of Flores and other younger guys. If 2015 finds the Mets with continued question marks at Short and 2nd- then it’s really back to the drawing board, I suppose.
We’re supposedly out of the rebuilding phase, right?