In Juan Lagares’ first three seasons in the Mets organization – from 2006 to 2008 – he committed 73 errors in 195 games. He was also a shortstop. In 2009, the decision was made to move Lagares to the outfield, and now he’s regarded as the best defensive centerfielder in major league baseball.
Lagares’ journey from 17-year-old shortstop with a good bat to prime defensive centerfielder hasn’t been an easy one, but it has been a fruitful one for the now 25-year-old.
After years of being rushed through the system (he hit full-season ball at age 18, and his .210/.262/.317 line in Savannah proved he wasn’t ready) as was the controversial strategy under Omar Minaya, he finally began to blossom as a 22-year-old in 2011, batting .349/.383/.500 between Hi-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton.
The 2012 season saw his shift from a corner outfielder to a centerfielder, and after a 17-game stint in Triple-A Las Vegas in 2013, he was ready for the majors.
In his first year in the MLB, Lagares became a fan favorite for his spectacular defensive plays. In 2014, his defense was just as good, and he stepped up his offensive game, raising his weighted on-base average from .275 to .310.
But when one looks ahead at what to expect from Lagares in 2015 and beyond, much is uncertain. At this point we have a large enough sampling of his defense so that we can say with confidence that his glove should remain as one of the best in the game. The only player to post a higher dWAR than Lagares in each of the last two seasons (3.5 and 3.1, respectively) was Andrelton Simmons (5.4 and 3.8), who played in 66 more games than Lagares, combined.
Then there’s the issue of Lagares’ offense. Well, maybe calling it an issue is a little too dramatic, because he was ever-so-slightly above league average in 2014 by both wRC+ (101) and OPS+ (102), and there’s nothing wrong with that when you’ve got a three-win glove.
Don’t think just because there were improvements in his offense from 2013 to 2014, that he is any lock to continue the upward trend going into the future. There is likely to be some incremental improvements in his bat as he enters the prime of his career, but signs show that it might be difficult for him to even replicate the league-average offense he displayed in 2014 this year.
The reason is that in 2014 Lagares was one of the luckiest hitters in Major League Baseball. When Jeff Zimmerman at FanGraphs calculated the 2014 values for expected Batting Average on Balls In Play (xBABIP, which Brian Joura touched on a few weeks ago), Lagares had the largest differential between his xBABIP (.297) and his actual BABIP (.341) in a positive direction on the team. Out of 579 batters studied by Zimmerman, the 44-point differential in Lagares’ numbers made him the 90th luckiest.
This luck was a big contributor to Lagares’ 39-point jump in batting average, 70-point jump in OPS despite slightly less power, and as a result, the big bump of his fWAR from 2.9 in 2013 to 3.8 in 2014.
Projection systems, like Steamer and ZiPS see Lagares’ BABIP regressing significantly in 2015, the latter to .328 and the former to .302, leading to big dips in his offensive numbers. Those educated guesses are nice, but of course, they’re far from infallible predictions, as BABIP is one of the most difficult statistics to project.
The reason for that is that it takes over 1100 plate appearances for BABIP to normalize to a point where random variation doesn’t play a statistically significant role. This is why folks like Mitchel Lichtman go crazy whenever left-right splits are mentioned. Unless you’re working with a minimum of 1100 PA sample, there’s too much luck involved. If you’re interested in learning about when stats stabilize, Derek Carty of Baseball Prospectus wrote about it here.
Two years into his career, Lagares has amassed 873 PA, and a .326 BABIP, so the sample is still too small to take luck out of the equation. We know that in 452 of those PA, he was getting very lucky, so that number is likely to regress backward with time. In about 300 or so plate appearances, we’ll be able to better project what Lagares’ true BABIP talent is, as the career-long sample size will be large enough.
Even with a modest 20-point dip in BABIP into the .320’s, Lagares is still staring down the barrel of a .260 batting average with an on-base percentage hovering around .300, a sub-.700 OPS and sub-.300 wOBA – all bad offensive outcomes.
The good news is that even despite below-average offense, Lagares’ glove is still good enough to keep him a valuable piece on a contending team that needs one more piece to contend. He just shouldn’t be batting higher than seventh.
Joe Vasile is an award-winning play-by-play broadcaster for ESPN Radio in Williamsport, PA covering Wilkes University Football and Basketball. He is the host of the Mark, Mike and Joe Podcast.
Joe, dead on! He has no business batting at the top. Just like Flores has no business batting eighth. This team is manged by a person that makes decisions based on emotional motivation, therefore, you get these issues.
Gary Maddox used to bat seventh. Paul Blair batted eighth. Juan Lagares can bat at the bottom of the lineup without the offensive pressure that the Mets put on him. He seems to be a pretty good “see ball, hit ball” hitter. That means he chases sometimes and doesn’t know how to work a count, but will learn to make adjustments at his own pace. And, he hits in the clutch.
I would put Murphy on top, and either put TDA at #2 and Flores at #7, or I could move everybody up a spot and put Lagares at #8. The latter would be eyebrow raising, but would get me into the meat of the order faster with Murphy and Wright being on base as often as can be.
Hi Gus,
I remember when Lagares was first signed to an IFA contract one of the Mets guys scouting him had also been one of the guys scouting Reyes when he was signed years earlier. He said at the time that at the same age Lagares was a more developed SS prospect than Reyes. Amazing how things work out that Reyes stuck and thrived at SS Lagares had to be moved cause he couldn’t cut it there but found himself a new home in CF and is thriving in his own right.
That and many other examples that can be used is why I am leery of the projections that scouts place upon kids so young. Many times they are right but many times their not, if they were that good the Mike Piazza’s of the world would never last till the 62 round of the draft.
Hey Rob,
Watching Reyes in the field I often thought that he would have made a tremendous outfielder. So many fine outfielders started as infielders before being switched—-Mays, Mantle, Yount just to name a few.
I agree on the “see ball, hit ball” assessment. He puts the barrel on the ball a lot, but since he is not as selective or skilled as others, the results are not always great. If he can develop that selectivity with Kevin Long, that should go a long way toward greater offensive productivity. Until then, let him do his thing with his glove and keep him at the bottom of the lineup.
I agree with this from Texas Gus..”He seems to be a pretty good “see ball, hit ball” hitter. “……. and it has me concerned!
Lagares is surviving at the Plate based on sheer athletic ability and competitive instinct. He has great athleticism and explosion/power. He’ll remain “only lucky” as long as he retains that peak ability—and he needs to be very lucky (last season’s high BABIP) to remain at a survival level OPS (680/690 and above), considering the offsetting impact of his defense.
He has lots of exposure and tremendous downside as a hitter, without an improved approach—and gigantic upside with “an idea” at the plate.
This will go North or South very quickly— great athleticism lets you do wonderful things at 23-25….. some of those things disappear at 26-29 (see Dontrell Willis and Ike Davis—guys who lost the ability to compensate athletically from attrocious form and approach—at seemingly young ages).
Eraff, he has tried to improve his patience some last year. Problem is, he goes back to his old habits sometimes of chasing the outside slider. That bad call by that home plate ump calling him “out” on a 3-2 fastball that was outside in Miami set him back a bit.
But, batting eighth gives him patience and makes him take pitches because the pitcher is up next and he will see a lot of junk. I know that no one deserves to be batting eighth more than Tejada, but he’s not playing any more, so someone else needs to.
I see Lagares as the Mets answer to the 70’s concept of the “all glove/no bat” SS.
Except that he’s a CF.
The key is that it becomes essential — a requirement — that the Mets field a SS who can contribute to the offense.
I love Lagares, and I’m hopeful he’ll develop as a hitter — there are definite signs of that — and I think he has a positive value even with a .700 OPS. But the roster must account for the offensive deficiency. I don’t know where the cutoff is offensively. At a .650 OPS, is he still an overall plus? I know that the WAR folks will look at his defensive metrics and say yes, but I don’t have as much faith in those numbers as others do. Too many contingencies.
I think he’s capable of a .750 OPS, over time, should the power — which is there! — come into play more often. At that, he’d be a beast. Love that he finally started stealing bases late last season. 25 SBs could be a real positive, provided he’s not thrown out 12 times.
BTW: I’ve always worried that he’s a coveted guy in trade talks. That we’ll wake up and realize he’s just been included in a package deal. Sandy Alderson does not properly value defense; I think he’d flip Juan quite easily.
I studied this question following the end of the 2013 season. Here’s what I found:
“Since 1990, managers have spoken loud and clear in that they will only give playing time to poor offensive center fielders if they play good defense and swipe a ton of bases. Even if we up our OPS ceiling to .700 – we still only get seven players and all of them stole 30 bases in a season.
If we turn this around and look at CFers in this time frame to amass 2,000 PA the person with the lowest OPS among those that were not big stolen base threats – those who never reached 20 SB in a year – is Colby Rasmus, who has a .753 lifetime OPS. Lagares stole six bases in nine attempts in 2013.”
Gary Pettis?
Peter Bourjos?
The bulk of Pettis’ career came before 1990 and his post-90 career did not have enough PA to qualify. But if he did qualify, it would have been another guy who combined great speed with above-average defense.
Bourjos has only had one season where he cleared 400 PA and has yet to meet the 2,000 PA standard used. Despite his speed and defense, managers have not deemed fit to play him on a regular basis, besides the one year he posted a .765 OPS.
With the offensive environment being what it is in the MLB today, a .700 OPS isn’t as bad as it was 6-8 years ago. That being said, still not great.
I think hitting a baseball is almost entirely luck. The mention of “lucky” makes me laugh. If he can learn not to chase, then he can be a solid guy batting 6-8. Its exactly where he belongs presently. Im more interested on where the offense comes from in our corner outfielders given their defense will be so poor.
There were hitters like Gwynn that not only saw exactly where they hit the baseball (on the seems, a half inch from the seems, and inch from the seems) but they hit it with h the same spot on the bat. Those are great hitters. Most others have to learn to identify pitches and be able to just hit it square.
LOL, if you ask Keith Hernandez, he’ll tell you he was robbed much more than the bloopers that fell in.
Sure, comparing the avg MLB player with Gwynn is a point fruitless. Not everyone that plays the game competently and even amazingly is destined for the HoF. Like I said, there’s a lot of luck in hitting a baseball, otherwise failing 75% of the time would be hard to explain.
Failing 70% or 75% of the time is a reflection of Skill, not Luck!
Flipping a balanced coin and getting a greater than 50% of desired result—That’s luck!!!
In 2014, in a small 94 AB sample, Lagares against LHP had a 387/488/875. In his two year career with 208 AB against LHP he post a 321/422/743 slash line. He has earned the opportunity to lead off vs LHP. I agree Joe, that against RHP he should not bat above 7th. TC has stated that he sees Lagares as the leadoff batter with many stolen bases. Lagares between August 29th and September 7th stole 8 bases in 9 attempts. That pace will burn him out before Memorial Day. TC’s philosophy of leading Lagares off all the time and not controlling Juan’s running game is another reason that I am disappointed in Collins as the manager.