Over the past three seasons, the Mets bullpen has the eighth highest ERA among Major League teams and forth among National League teams. The National League teams that have had a worse bullpen ERA, the Phillies, Rockies, and Cubs, all play in notorious hitters parks. Based on innings pitched per appearance by reliever the Mets rank very poorly, but they are not in bad company at the bottom of the list. The Mets only rank ahead of the 2012 and 2014 World Series Champion Giants and the next two teams on the list are the Dodgers and Cardinals. Of the fifteen National League teams there seemed to be correlation between bullpen innings pitched per appearances (BIPPA) and success of the bullpen. The Rockies and Pirates both had the highest two BIPPAs and were on at opposite ends in terms of ERA. The Rockies bullpen ERA was 4.51, granted they do play in Coors Field, and the Pirates bullpen ERA was at 3.17. The Giants had a bullpen ERA of 3.29 and the Mets pen held up in ERA of 3.91. The way that Terry Collins and uses the bullpen certainly can work with the right pieces in place, which the Mets may have in 2015.
Presumably the Mets will go with a five man bench leaving only seven pitchers for the Mets to work with out of the bullpen. Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia both had breakout seasons last year in the bullpen and are locks for the Opening Day bullpen each with a chance to be the closer. Long man Carlos Torres is pretty much also guaranteed a spot again as he has served the Mets well for the past two seasons. After not performing well in spring training last year, Vic Black did not make it to Opening Day because of some control issues. He sorted them out in Vegas pitching in seventeen games and had a 1.47 ERA despite a very high 8.3 walks per nine innings. After getting called back up Black toned down his walks to a healthier 4.9 and pitched well the rest of the season appearing in forty-one games. Josh Edgin is almost a guarantee to be in the bullpen as well given the tendency to use lefty relievers for short appearances and he pitched very well last year. Edgin could be used better than just as a LOOGY. He faced left handed batters about twice as much as right handed batters and held righties to a very similar OPS. Both home runs he gave up this past season were to left handed hitters, one to Chase Utley and one to Chris Coghlan. If given the chance to get some full innings of relief Edgin could do well, but it is unlikely he will be used that way. Unless the Mets have another pitcher that they can use as a LOOGY, who pitches well. The leading candidate as of right now is Rule V draft pick Sean Gilmartin, but Scott Rice, Dario Alvarez, Darin Gorski, and Jack Leathersich. Ultimately, spring training will decide who is going to be joining Edgin, and those five guys are going to duke it out for the one spot.
The last spot is a little more tricky because there are a few guys who could take the spot. Now the Mets could always go down to a four man bench, with the ability of Wilmer Flores to play all the infield positions, Daniel Muprhy being able to play third base leaving Eric Campbell down in Las Vegas. If they do go with the five man bench then as of right now the spot is being eyed down by Dillon Gee, who is least likely to be in the rotation and might get traded, and Rafael Montero. Montero was also a candidate for the rotation and could be stashed in Triple-A or used as a long man and occasional spot starter. One of the prime suitors for Gee, the Rockies just recently acquired David Hale and Gus Schlosser from the Braves likely taking them out of talks. He will probably end up getting moved at some point before Opening Day, but to whom now is the real question. Also, Bobby Parnell will have his spot in the bullpen once he fully recovers and returns to the Mets. Unlikely but possible, is top pitching prospects Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz making their MLB debut out of the bullpen at some point this season.
After a few years of struggling to find the right pieces for the bullpen it seems as though the Mets have settled in and have the blueprint for success with these guys. If the bullpen stays healthy and repeats the successes that they had last year the Mets can go from having a bullpen that made fans nervous a few years ago to a dominant force that shuts down the opponent from the seventh innings on. Whoever is the closer whether it be Familia, Mejia, or Parnell the games will be a lot less stressful near the end compared to when Frank Francisco or Francisco Rodriguez were closing games for the Mets.
Nice writeup. I believe the 2015 Mets BP could be at or near the top in all of baseball. Power arms and lots of them are the key. When I look at Mejia, Familia, Black, Parnell, Edgin, etc…wow…those are guys that can really get it done in crunch time. We have a real strength here.
Mejia is less stressful to watch than Franky Frank or k-rod?
Did you watch the games? 1.42 WHIP is pretty stressful…
I did. It was very dicey.
Bull pens are notoriously finicky and subject to big swings. I’m cautiously optimistic.
That 1.42 WHIP had me pulling my hair out at times throughout the season. That being said, I really thought he turned a corner after his near-breakdown in Cincinnati in early September.
After giving up two runs and almost escaping the big jam, he allowed a questionable infield hit and was put up against Mesoraco. After striking out the best player on the Reds with three pitches it showed serious development and he did not allow another run for the rest of the season.
Not to mention the kid pitched through a sports hernia for most of the season. Is he a great reliever? No. But he clearly has the best mentality for the closer role and would not be effective anywhere else in the bullpen.
I thought he pitched better after he got hurt. Maybe not having his best stuff taught him more refinement.
Bullpens are fluid situations you can never count on the same guys producing the same results as the year before many times not even close to the good or bad of the equation. There is a little more hope for the Mets since so much of it is made up of young power arms. But Parnell just recently said his aim is to be 100% by the years end, two major surgeries and close to 2 years since he has pitched competitively (by the time he gets to the ML’s this year) for any amount of time it could be a reach to think he will be back this year to the level he was two years ago that is by the way the first time in his whole career he ever achieved such success and was injured 4 months into it didn’t even sustain that success a whole year.
Mejia and Familia are very promising and could be what we think they are but both coming back from off season surgery (although minor) and the fact that they have no track record except for last year makes them a ? mark as well, a ? mark with potential but a ? mark nonetheless.
Black and Edgin were woefully unprepared to start the season last year let’s hope they matured some and learned how to prepare in the off season. And as much as some love Black and want him to audition as a closer candidate the last thing I want to see is a guy with a 5/9 walk ratio coming in to protect a one run lead in the bottom of the ninth, and that 5/9 walks was his low water mark for the year let’s not forget.
Gee they need to get rid of before the season starts he is not going to be happy in the bullpen, his value will take a hit both when he goes on the free agent market and his value as a trade chip to the Mets if he is stuck in the pen, time might come to bite the bullet take what you can get and put some extra coin in the Wilpon’s pockets. After all if there is one thing we all know Sandy Alderson does well is cut payroll. Besides Montero is a superior talent to Gee and costs about a tenth of the freight might as well give him a chance to prove it. I watched him in Vegas extensively over the last two years and the scouts always say he sits 91 to 93 and it is true but he can reach back and get it, I have seen him touch 96 when he needed some giddyap in Vegas. In shorter appearances out of the pen you can bet he will come in tossing a couple ticks higher than he does as a starter.
Should we be better , I think so, how much better is the question because let’s face it being better than what we were getting the first three years of this regime could still leave you well shy of a playoff caliber bullpen.
Mejia and Familia are not definitely going to be successes, but if they can even perform close to the levels that they did last year then I think that would please most Mets fans. Black still needs to work on his control, but still had a decent year. Edgin had a great year last year, but I do not think he benefits at all the way that he is used by Collins. He can get right handed hitters out too. I’m not saying that he should be going out there against every right handed hitter, but he does not need to be this team’s LOOGY. Bring him in to face Ryan Howard or Chase Utley, but keep him in to face another two batters. Like I pointed out at the top of the article, the Mets had the second lowest BIPPA in the majors. That did not determine success, but it shortens the bullpen in long tough games where they need the relievers to pitch more than two pitches to one batter.
I don’t believe that Parnell should get the closer’s job as soon as he gets back. Mejia performed well last year in that role and if not Familia deserves his shot too and like you said Parnell has not pitched in a long time. By the time he comes back, he will be out for almost two full years aside from Opening Day last year. But what Parnell does is provide a nice veteran leadership for the other guys. Parnell debuted seven years ago and none of the other pitchers have been a key part of a bullpen and had success prior to 2012. Alderson the past few years as filled in the bullpen with a few older guys like Jon Rauch or LaTroy Hawkins or Dana Eveland. This bullpen does not have that guy who has traveled around and experienced different major league pens. Carlos Torres appeared in 44 games prior to the Mets grabbing him and Vic Black pitched in three games for the Pirates.
The Mets may benefit from a guy like LaTroy Hawkins, but there really is not room for them on the roster. The Mets could always sign Joe Beimel, who was on their radar a few years ago. He did not pitch in 2012 or 2014, but did pretty well for Seattle last year. Signing another older pitcher would probably make most Mets fans heads roll, but if he signs a minor league deal with an invitation for spring training and see how it does compared to the other guys competing for the other lefty spot. Being older he could be better off being used as a LOOGY not putting as much stress on his arm and he held left handed batters last year to a .188/.217/.288 slash line.
Hi Tyler,
Our definitions of great seasons and good seasons are a little different my friend. To me Edgin had a good year not a great one, he didn’t even make the 25 man roster coming out of spring last year he was terrible in spring training and at AAA for a while, either did Black for that matter. And you said he had a good year, I would say he had an acceptable year for a rookie with control problems and showed promise. But a guy that can’t make the 25 man roster out of spring because he can’t find the plate and then proceeds to post 8/9 walks in AAA and improves to 5/9 at the ML level does not constitute good in my book, the arm is good there is serious potential there the performance was acceptable for a rookie with control problems but if you expect to compete against the best teams for a playoff spot you don’t want him anywhere near the mound with a one run lead in a crucial situation.
We pretty much agree about Parnell except that you talk about him being a veteran influence , well I guess that is true but he really didn’t accomplish much of note until 2013 and four months into the season his head fell off his shoulders and had to go in for major neck surgery. He doesn’t have a stellar season to his name except that and it was cut short at the 2/3rds mark.
My problem is that just like most of the rest of the team, if these guys come back like their best before the injury, if those other young guys play like they did the best two months of last year and not the bad 4 months, if these other guys develop like we think they should, If those other guys can stay healthy, if and if and if and if.
You can take any team in ML baseball and apply 25 ” optimistic ifs” to their roster and prospects and make a case that they “could” be a playoff team, or better in some aspect of the game, whatever you want to make a case for. But the honest to god truth is that generally at least half of those “ifs” will not go the way we want them to maybe more and to have more than half go our way will be subject to dumb luck not good planning or the execution of “The Great Plan”.
We could be a 75 win team as easily as we could be an 85 win team depending on how the breaks fall.
To many “ifs”!
gee is not going to be in the bullpen if he doesnt get traded honestly i wouldnt be surprised if someone get injured cause someone always does and hell be right back in the rotation
“Presumably the Mets will go with a five man bench leaving only seven pitchers for the Mets to work with out of the bullpen.”
Only seven pitchers? You realize teams used to have six? Do you realize how short strapped a five man bench is and you want to see four? Are you really Terry Collins?
If you have the right guys, a four man bench shouldn’t be too difficult. Campbell, Recker, Mayberry and Captain Kirk. Or Tejada instead of Campbell, if you prefer. That might not be an ideal bench, but you can man every position, and each guy on the bench would get more reps, instead of sitting cold for weeks like EYJ did last year.
I didn’t say the Mets should have a four man bench. I said that they could go down to a four man bench and be okay. They have multiple infielders who play more than just one position. Murphy can play all except short and Flores and Campbell can play them all. Duda is also backed up by Cuddyer and Mayberry, which provides depth at first base. Tejada will likely be on the bench, so he is backing up the middle infield.
I’ve already stated that I see the bullpen as an area of concern, largely for the reasons mentioned above. Young and fragile and, for the most part, unproven. The Mets did not nothing to improve here, whereas I feel that a team should always be in the process of improvement. My rule of thumb is not to overly stress the pen in April, because I know it will go through many changes over the course of the season. Obviously, the Mets are in better shape because they are not wasting their time (and games) on has-beens like Farnsworth and Valverde. Who fills in next will be the big question. I’m hopeful that Montero can be help here; maybe Mazzoni can get some outs. A lot depends on the health of Familia, who I really really like. I thought a ballsy move might have been to trade Mejia; I’m not real convinced. The Rule 5 kid — sorry, don’t want to butcher his name here — could be very important, as I’m uninspired by the LH retreads that Sandy has stockpiled.