Chicago had Ernie Banks, San Diego had Tony Gwynn. Those guys were Hall of Famers who spent their entire team playing for one franchise and who retired without winning a World Series. Which brings us to David Wright. Is he a Hall of Famer? Will he play his entire career with the Mets? And will he retire without a World Series ring on his finger? As fans, we want those answers to be: Yes, Yes and No. Ultimately, the answers to two and three might have a huge impact on the answer to the first question.
It’s been a roller coaster ride for Wright since the Mets moved into Citi Field in 2009. The new dimensions certainly seemed to affect his home run production. And the Mets have not been shy about things, having now twice altered the dimensions of the park. Of course, injuries have played a big role, too. He’s suffered a beaning, a broken bone in his back and last year he was dealing with an injured shoulder.
At age 32, can Wright come back to the MVP levels that we once took for granted? Will he ever play in 150 games again? And if he does, will he ever top a .500 SLG mark? And the questions are not just centered around offense. Will his shoulder allow him to make difficult throws? If he returns offensively but not defensively, what do the Mets do?
Here are our predictions on some of those issues:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | DL 15+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albanesius | 620 | .287 | .380 | .480 | 17 | 90 | No |
| Ferguson | 615 | .285 | .350 | .490 | 18 | 80 | No |
| Hangley | 575 | .287 | .397 | .425 | 23 | 102 | No |
| Joura | 618 | .283 | .354 | .503 | 24 | 107 | No |
| Koehler | 650 | .300 | .360 | .465 | 14 | 70 | No |
| McCarthy | 635 | .291 | .382 | .506 | 23 | 89 | Yes |
| Netter | 575 | .302 | .388 | .430 | 16 | 91 | No |
| Newman | 580 | .275 | .355 | .460 | 20 | 85 | No |
| Singer | 634 | .302 | .367 | .523 | 23 | 94 | No |
| Vasile | 550 | .308 | .384 | .520 | 23 | 85 | Yes |
| Walendin | 600 | .301 | .388 | .501 | 22 | 93 | Yes |
The last column refers to Wright spending more than 15 days on the disabled list. As a group, we’re pretty darn optimistic about this, although it’s unclear if that’s due to a belief that Wright will be healthy or a belief that he’ll continue to be pig-headed about playing when he’s far less than 100%.
On the standard categories that we project, most of us are in agreement on how Wright will perform. The biggest area of disagreement comes in the SLG category, where our projections range from .425 to .523, nearly 100 points. Charlie Hangley’s SLG prediction seems off to me, given his AVG and HR totals, but even if we disregard that one, Matt Netter’s projection of .430 is still a long way from many others.
Overall, this is what we project for Wright in 2015:
Our slash line projections are almost lock-step in line with his career averages. We predict an .870 OPS and Wright has an .871 lifetime mark. Our HR and RBI numbers are nearly identical to what he put up in 2012, his last fully healthy year. Are we overly optimistic about a long-time fan favorite or are we thinking the new dimensions will help mask some age-related decline? Either way, let’s see how our projections stack up to the ones currently available on FanGraphs:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Met360 | 605 | .287 | .380 | .490 | 20 | 90 |
| Steamer | 576 | .275 | .347 | .432 | 16 | 65 |
| ZiPS | 558 | .275 | .346 | .422 | 13 | 70 |
In this case, Steamer and ZiPS are fairly close and our projections are the outlier.
But this is a case where no one should feel bad about having an optimistic projection. We’ve seen Wright battle back before from injuries and it seems he’s earned the benefit of the doubt from us on this one. It may be nothing more than sentiment shining through but a big bounce back season from Wright will be extra sweet after seeing the computer projections.
We look to get back on track in the projection series, with our next one hitting the site on Saturday.
Even as I read my “SLG .425” projection? I have no idea what I was thinking. What, he”ll have, like, 8 doubles & no triples?
I’m a dope, sometimes…
Very funny!
Since I’m the worst and I didn’t get my projections in on time, here they are:
PA – 630
AVG – .305
OBP – .390
SLG – .510
HR – 20
RBIs – 95
>15 days on the DL – No
I’m, Fairly optimistic about Wright. But, if you all as a group mostly feel he will avoid the DL, how can you only plan on just 20 plate appearances more than last year?
Just for kicks and giggles:
.301/.395/.495
675 ab, 97 R, 98RBI, 24 HR, 18 SB, no DL.
Well, Wright did play in 134 games last year. And the question was if he would spend more than 15 days on the DL. It’s not too hard to imagine a minimum 15-day DL stint and a handful of days off and this forecast being right on target.
I find it ironic that Citifield is better suited for Jose Reyes than Wright. Barring any lengthy time on the DL I think Wright can perform to his usual numbers. The Mets need their captain to stay healthy and play well if they have any hopes of being in “meaningful” games in September.
I’ve said since day 1 of the park being open that it was built with Reyes and Beltran in mind — better geared for doubles/triples/line drives than long homers. The new dimensions have tempered that a bit.
I don’t think the park was built with any one player in mind. It was built b/c Fred and Jeff wanted a quirky stadium and they wanted to build it like some of the stadiums they remembered from their childhoods.
And Wright over the course of his career has been a great line drive hitter – who hits a ton of doubles….just as much if not moreso than Reyes/Beltran (though clearly Reyes has the advantage in triples). I think he’s more of a doubles guy than one who hits “long HRs” – the best HR hitters probably wouldn’t have had as much of an issue with Citi, But I think the way Citi initially was – with the high walls in LF and the really deep RCF it kinda was built almost as if it was Wright’s kryptonite – it was terrible for a RHH the style of hitting like Wright. The park shouldn’t have been built the way it was, but I think the Mets let the park get into their heard more than they should’ve. The coaching staff didnt help either…they were already pushing ways to adapt to the park even before the team started playing there.
Exactly how will an injured left shoulder prevent Wright from making difficult throws? How is that going to impact his defense?
This is a perfect example of how anyone can have a blog, but only serious people should be taken seriously.
Editor’s Note – Please do not capitalize words in your post, as that is a violation of our Comment Policy.
Ryan Zimmerman has had shoulder injuries in the past, and is now a first-baseman. That’s how it can impact defense.
That was to his throwing shoulder. This particular blogger suggested that Wright might have trouble making throws due to an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. Can you say zero credibility?
I’d definitely take those number from Wright. He was great in 2013 before last years disaster – so hopefully he can get back to that.
One thing to nitpick, Wright’s injury last year (and the one he spent this offseason rehabbing) was to his left non-throwing shoulder. So I don’t think we have to be that worried about his defense in terms of rebounding from this injury, his defense was good last year. (That said, there were times when his throws were pretty weak – but I don’t think it was this injury that was causing that)
Editor’s Note – Please do not capitalize words in your post, as that is a violation of our Comment Policy.
I broke my left collarbone and it impacted my accuracy as a righty thrower.
Perhaps the recent injury had nothing to do with Wright’s throwing issues, which have been getting worse the past few years. Shoot, let’s say it had zero to do with it. The fact remains that Wright’s throws are nowhere near as good as they were a few years ago. And that’s an issue.
Certainly it can have some impact – almost any injury can have some impact on the ability to throw. But it seemed at least to me that Wright’s throwing was actually worse earliest in the year before he got hurt – so I wouldn’t tie it fully to the injury. I think it would be much more of a concern if it was a right shoulder issue. And despite the not great arm, he was still a plus defender last year – so I don’t think it’s that big of an issue at this point – he can play defense exactly like he did last year, and I’d gladly take it – it’s the bat we need to rebound.
So because you didn’t do your research before making a post to your blog, now you’re trying to make excuses as to why your post was not misleading and incorrect?
This is a forum for adults. We’re an inclusive bunch who disagree with one another on a regular basis. But you’ve got to bring something more to the table than a bad attitude. What you term an excuse is nothing of the sort but go ahead and call it whatever you like in order to feel good about yourself.
I welcome you to come back and visit us again. You are encouraged to disagree, argue and point out things that you think are mistakes. But you’ve got to be an adult about it and stop making untrue accusations and being needlessly argumentative. Your comments will go to moderation until you can prove capable of this.
+1 , Mr Magoo should open his eyes and see how well written, well researched and informative this blog is. His valid questioning of the injury lost credibility by his inability to see the perspective. As the cartoon said “Oh Magoo, you have done it again “.
Wright at age 32 should start to show his age and probably will never rebound to even his 2012 age 29 year. I think the staff consensus is a fair consensus and has taken into account the drop off because of age. As for my two cents:
637 PA, .291 BA, .371 OBP, .467 SLG, 20 HR, 93 RBI, No DL.
The no DL is very important. I want Tulo on the Mets but I worry about his injury history. Wright could be viewed very similarly. Imagine if the Mets traded for Tulo and both him and Wright go down with injury. The thought makes me shudder.
If Wright does roar back, put up better numbers and the Mets win a championship then Wright could be a HOF player. As a Met fan I root for that conclusion for this team and this deserving player.