Advanced stats proponents who preach that you should not evaluate how well someone pitched by their win totals should be pleased with how Mets fans view Bartolo Colon. In his first season with the Mets, Colon won 15 games. Yet if you polled 100 Mets fans and asked if we could waive a magic wand and Colon would be instantly traded for some magic beans, how many would be okay – my guess is that 95 of them would answer that they would have no problem with that deal.
Of course, there are many reasons for this. Some would prefer his $11 million salary be allocated elsewhere. Others would like for the younger prospects to get a fair shot in the rotation. Still others are concerned about his advancing age. And yet others would say that while he was very durable in 2014, he wasn’t very good.
If on the day that he signed the deal, you told Sandy Alderson that Colon would deliver 202.1 IP and 15 Wins, he probably would have smiled and figured that Colon did exactly what he hoped he would do. And in a way he did.
Yet Colon could not quite duplicate his outstanding 2013 season. For the majority of the year he pitched well but when he didn’t – boy did he stink. There was the nine-run outing against the Angels, two seven-run outings and five other appearances where he allowed either five or six runs. In eight of his 31 starts, he was poor or worse.
So, do we see him bouncing back at age 42? Here are our individual projections:
| Colon | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | LOB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albanesius | 188 | 4.00 | 145 | 35 | 18 | 3.46 | 70.0% |
| Ferguson | 190 | 4.00 | 135 | 30 | 23 | 3.83 | 73.0% |
| Hangley | 172 | 3.67 | 115 | 43 | 12 | 3.52 | 73.0% |
| Joura | 77 | 4.33 | 60 | 17 | 11 | 4.16 | 69.0% |
| Koehler | 155 | 4.00 | 145 | 35 | 25 | 4.10 | 70.0% |
| Kolton | 154.2 | 4.97 | 99 | 41 | 28 | 5.07 | 68.7% |
| McCarthy | 191 | 3.68 | 111 | 34 | 19 | 3.86 | 75.0% |
| Netter | 181 | 4.41 | 161 | 44 | 20 | 3.59 | 72.0% |
| Newman | 185 | 4.25 | 140 | 35 | 25 | 4.01 | 75.0% |
| Parker | 175 | 4.15 | 145 | 35 | 24 | 3.93 | 72.0% |
| Rogan | 205 | 4.10 | 160 | 34 | 21 | 3.47 | 68.0% |
| Singer | 160.1 | 4.40 | 128 | 26 | 20 | 3.71 | 71.0% |
| Vasile | 195 | 3.65 | 150 | 40 | 20 | 3.61 | 72.5% |
| Walendin | 91 | 4.27 | 70 | 19 | 10 | 3.72 | 70.0% |
Our projections are all over the map. Chris Walendin joins me in thinking that Colon won’t crack 100 IP while four different people think he’ll crack 190 IP. Joe Vasile sees a 3.65 ERA while Dan Kolton thinks he’ll be pushing 5. Rob Rogan thinks he’ll be unlucky with runners left on base with a 68% mark while Julian McCarthy thinks he’ll have a fine 75% rate. For his career, Colon has a 73.0 LOB% and it was 70.2 last year.
Here’s our group forecast:
While we see him pitching virtually a full year, we do not see him moving back towards 2013 production. If anything, we see him falling off from 2014. It will be curious to see if he plugs along at this rate if the Mets will hold a spot in the rotation for him long enough to reach our innings projection.
Here is our forecast along with those currently available at FanGraphs:
| IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | LOB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets360 | 165.2 | 4.15 | 126 | 33 | 20 | 3.85 | 71.0% |
| Steamer | 163 | 4.17 | 113 | 27 | 21 | 4.01 | 69.7% |
| ZiPS | 167.2 | 4.03 | 115 | 27 | 18 | 3.70 |
All three systems see the same pitcher in 2014.
Check back Wednesday for our next entry in the projection series.
13 losses tied a career high. I counted only 1 hard luck loss (8/13 7 IP, 2 R, 1 ER), and 2 lucky no-decisions (5/12 and 7/18)
In order ti project Colon, one must surmise how the Mets are going to use him 2015. I think because he is being paid $11M he will be in the starting rotation when the season starts and traded by early July. My projection is for his time on the Mets.
100 IP, 4.09 ERA, K 76, BB 15, HR 11, FIP 3.57, LOB 70.2
Colon is a good pitcher. He is what many teams look for in a fifth starter. It is not that I don’t like Colon, I find him very entertaining. I believe the Mets have better options now and should have moved on.
The Mets play in their division 25 of their first 31 games. It is important that they start the season off strong or else 2015 could be another lost season. The fifth starter will pitch in six of those games. The Mets should break camp with their five best pitchers in the starting rotation, salary and team control be damned.
If Colon is one of those five, so be it. If the name is Montero, Syndergaard, Gee or Matz that would be fine also. Just go with the best five.
Let’s face it. Colon is projected as our #5 starter. If you want to see his real value, notwithstanding the $11 million or so that he is due, do a comparison with every other #5 starter in the league. That will show you the diamond in the ruff that we have. And at the trade deadline if he is still breathing, many teams will want him as at late season pickup and Thor joins the rotation as our #5. Enough said.
In MLB history there have only been 20 times where a pitcher 42 or older has pitched 150 or more innings and kept an ERA 4.00 or under.
4X by Nolan Ryan
4X by Jack Quinn
3X by Phil Niekro
2X by Cy Young
1 time by Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Jamie Moyer, Warren Spahn, Charlie Hough, Gaylord Perry, Red Faber
So, that’s 12 times by HOF pitchers
6 times by knuckleball/spitball pitchers (Quinn, Hough, Faber)
1 time by Clemens and 1 time by Moyer
I don’t want to be wagering on Colon joining this group.
Edit: And if we up it to Matt’s 4.41 ERA prediction, we get 10 more times but only two new names – Greg Maddux and Tommy John. So, another Hall of Famer and another soft-tossing lefty.
At the trading deadline, I don’t think teams generally trade for #5 pitchers — and they don’t give up much to get them. The traditional playoff-push move is to acquire a guy who can win those big games. Look at the market for Dillon Gee. Colon gets paid twice the amount and projects to be worse in 2015.
It’s possible that Colon is awesome in 2015, gets off to a hot start and stays on a roll, and then his trade value might have something. But of course, why would the Mets trade him if that was the (unlikely) case?
Colon in 2015 makes no sense for the NY Mets. But, well, he’s here.
From a fan perspective, I imagine buying tickets for a Mets game. I’d be thrilled to see Harvey, deGrom, or Wheeler. Disappointed if it was Niese (I’ve seen him enough over the years), and disappointed if it was Colon. I’d personally be a lot more interested in seeing Syndergaard/Montero. Both work for $10.5 million less, as possibly an added benefit (thought it’s presumptuous to think the Wilpons would automatically reinvest that money — it might just got into the new mall they are building).