And did you think this fool could never win
Well look at me, I’m coming back again
I got a taste of short in a simple way
And if you need to know while I’m still standing you just fade awayDon’t you know I’m still standing better than I ever did
Feeling like a true survivor, looking like a little kid
I’m still standing after all this time
All offseason we heard rumors about the shortstops the Mets were going to get. Eduardo Escobar, Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Desmond – shoot, there were even Steven Drew rumors floating around for a day or two. The manager insists that Ruben Tejada can win the job. Bloggers are pimping for Matt Reynolds to get an honest look.
Meanwhile, Wilmer Flores just keeps plugging away.
The only person not a direct relative of Flores who seemingly has no misgivings about him being able to handle shortstop defensively over a full season is Sandy Alderson. Fortunately for Flores, that’s the only person he needs in his corner. At this point in time, it looks like Flores will get a chance to sink or swim, a chance that should last, at a bare minimum, two months.
While most people fret about his defense, Flores has not really hit yet in the majors. In 375 PA in MLB, Flores has a .635 OPS and a lowly .264 BABIP. But, in his last 26 games, Flores posted a .290/.327/.500 line in 107 PA. In this stretch, 12 of his 29 hits went for extra-bases, including four homers. His supporters hope that’s a harbinger of things to come. The doubters will point out that two of those homers came against the toasty Brad Penny and another came against J.J. Hoover, he of the 1-10 record last year.
Here are our individual predictions for Flores in 2015:
| Flores | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albanesius | 500 | .265 | .335 | .400 | 14 | 55 | .285 |
| Ferguson | 520 | .270 | .300 | .400 | 12 | 65 | .300 |
| Hangley | 502 | .279 | .337 | .402 | 8 | 61 | .327 |
| Joura | 415 | .240 | .275 | .356 | 7 | 42 | .264 |
| Koehler | 425 | .265 | .300 | .400 | 10 | 45 | .290 |
| Kolton | 302 | .238 | .279 | .332 | 1 | 16 | .251 |
| Netter | 600 | .264 | .320 | .430 | 14 | 68 | .290 |
| Newman | 450 | .270 | .325 | .400 | 13 | 60 | .310 |
| Parker | 425 | .275 | .300 | .365 | 10 | 45 | .280 |
| Rogan | 580 | .265 | .310 | .435 | 18 | 65 | .310 |
| Walendin | 600 | .279 | .315 | .433 | 18 | 80 | .272 |
Interestingly, four people see Flores posting a .300 or better BABIP and two guys have him cracking 18 HR. If Flores does either of those things, he would have to be a sieve defensively not to be an overall plus at shortstop. Rob Rogan, who forecasts a .745 OPS and 18 HR leads the optimists while Dan Kolton, who predicts a .611 OPS and 1 HR leads the pessimists.
Here’s our group projection:
Our official forecast leans much more to the optimistic side. Can Flores produce a .290 BABIP in the majors? People will be quick to point out that he always had strong BABIP rates in the minors. As mentioned previously, Ed Kranepool had a .339 BABIP in the minors and a .271 BABIP in the majors.
Now, let’s see how our forecast stacks up against the ones currently available at FanGraphs:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets360 | 484 | .265 | .310 | .400 | 11 | 55 | .290 |
| Depth Charts | 540 | .257 | .293 | .413 | 16 | 66 | .274 |
| Steamer | 511 | .248 | .286 | .398 | 15 | 57 | .261 |
| ZiPS | 570 | .266 | .300 | .428 | 17 | 76 | .286 |
Lots of interesting stuff here. ZiPS has the most optimistic forecast of the bunch, especially in the HR and RBI departments. Meanwhile, we are the least optimistic about his power, in part because we also forecast the least amount of playing time for him. Steamer is the most bearish forecast out there, with a .684 OPS and a .261 BABIP.
We will see if Flores is Still Standing at shortstop for the Mets at the end of the 2015 season.
Does anyone believe in winning then perhaps play a winner like Muno. Let the numbers and results speak.
I like Flores and he’s impressing in ST so far, so let’s hope it continues into the regular season so we can put the SS discussion to bed.
It will be hard to do with the Imbecile batting Flores 8th or 9th when he want to do his LaRussa impersonation.
🙂 I’m glad Kolton made his return in time for Wilmer Flores’s projections. For once i actually believe in his call.
I made this call back in December https://mets360.com/?p=23925
.230/.280.340 9 Hrs- Numbers ended up pretty similar to Brian Joura’s projection (who i thought liked Flores).
Does that mean i should lower my numbers even further?
How quickly they forget…
Everyone knows Flores can hit. It’s his defense that might not be good enough.n
I’m not convinced he can hit in the majors. I’m hoping he can but I’m not a fan of that swing.
If Wilmer Flores only hits 1 home run in April, I will visit this site each day and post “Dan Kolton is the smartest man in the universe” in every comment section every day for the entire month of May.
Editor’s Note – Please do not capitalize words in your post as that is a violation of our Comment Policy
LOL, Dan Kolton is waiting with bated breath.
Now, my take: BABIP is a very deceiving stat. It can show why a player had an unusually high average or an unusually low average in a given point in time in contrast to career norms. It also can show you why a pitcher got lit up but so can LOB%. A n d, it favors the whiffers, as their 150-200 strikeouts don’t count in this stat.
A player like Flores, that actually has the right approach of trying to make contact, looks bad with this dumb stat. Do you folks realize that the BABIP can actually be lower than your actual batting average? That’s because sacrifice flies count in BABIP but not in batting average.
Flores has had the reputation of being a run producer because he puts the bat on the ball, and then, ya never know… Those guys that create the breeze are also the guys that leave more runners on third with one out than guys like Flores would.
I’ve had a long day and I apologize for being a bit cranky tonight, but I’m tired of everyone not seeing the positives in this player and it seems like all we hear is negatives about his play due to the geniuses moving him from SS in 2011 because they projected he wouldn’t be able to handle the position due to his size. Does every shortstop need to be 5′ 7″ and weigh 160? You have one of those in Tejada, happy?
I think Flores can learn to use his lower body more, as he appears to be a slasher like Chase Utley, but batting #8 won’t do him any favors. While someone needs to hit eighth, I get the impression it sickens Collins to even write his name in the lineup card for some reason.
My view: .270/.320/.460, 55 runs, 75 RBI, and 17 hrs. And .300 BABIP. 475 abs
I believe they moved Flores from SS because they watched him play SS.
watched a highlight of Flores scoring on a Conforto Double. Wayching him “run” the bases, I was startled at just how slow and clunky he is.
He has almost 400 ab’s at a sub 640 ops. The fact that he was highly developed as a young player skews the outlook somewhat— he does not have the “top shelf” athleticism to be a star. His hitting has been competitive at each level. He has not been a dominant offensive player at the MILB level.
I believe he will compete as a hitter…the rest of his game is highly questionable.
“Once a fool had a good part in the play
If it’s so would I still be here today
It’s quite peculiar in a funny sort of way”
I answer with a Sir Elton lyric and Sandy is the Madman Across the Water. I am not against Wilmer, I am against a supposed playoff team relying on a player that management thought could not play shortstop in the minors and backing him up with a player that has failed twice in the majors when relied on. Then it is compounded with a second baseman that is defensively challenged.
It is what it is and I’ll pull for Flores to have a TexasGusCC type year but wouldn’t be surprised on a Name year either.
496 PA, .262 Avg, .297 OBP, .375 SLG, 12 HR, 57 RBI, BABIP .290
As Sandy says:
“There’s a joke and I know it very well
It’s one of those that I told you long ago
Take my word I’m a madman don’t you know”
It seems to me Wilmer’s lived his life like a candle in the wind.
An Elton John thread!
When it comes to Flores and Sandy once again not getting a short stop
Baby you’re crazy
If you think that you can fool me
Because I’ve seen that movie too
Hey, I told you guys I was bullish on Flores 🙂
I’m expecting a very good year from him if he’s given a shot the whole season. Of course I’ve been terribly, terribly wrong before…..